ICE Canada canola jumps on frost threat, stocks report

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Published: September 5, 2014

WINNIPEG (Reuters) — ICE Canada canola futures rose two percent on Friday after forecasts called for widespread frost in Western Canada next week and Statistics Canada reported a smaller-than-expected estimate of midsummer stocks.

November canola surged by $8.70 to $422 per tonne. It registered a 0.5 percent weekly gain.

Forecasters said freezing temperatures would end Western Canada’s growing season with many crops still immature. Alberta’s government also said on Friday that wet conditions had slowed harvest.

Statistics Canada reported canola stocks as of July 31, 2014, at 2.4 million tonnes, four times the previous year’s level, but the trade was expecting supplies of three million tonnes of canola.

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Chicago Board of Trade corn, soybean and wheat futures rose on Friday, rebounding from losses earlier in the week that pushed prices to contract lows on a round of bargain buying and short-covering, traders said.

“We have been beaten up ever since we came back from Labour Day weekend, said Dewey Strickler, president of grain consultancy Ag Watch Market Advisors. “We are due to get a little recovery, and that is exactly what we have done. Long story short, that’s it.”

Corn and soybeans posted the biggest gains, receiving additional support from afternoon forecasts that raised the prospects of freezing weather that could damage crops in northern areas of the Midwest next week.

“The market decided to put a little risk premium into prices before the weekend with continued forecasts for frost in the northern belt late next week,” Charlie Sernatinger, analyst with ED&F Man Capital, said in a note to clients.

Concerns about harvest delays for the spring wheat crop and quality concerns following rains in the Northern Plains boosted wheat futures.

“The spring wheat harvest just continues to plod along at an extremely slow pace,” said Mike Krueger, president of The Money Farm, a grain marketing advisory service in Fargo, North Dakota.

“I think we are losing quality. When all is said and done, I think it will be a question of test weight and those sorts of factors.”

Chicago Board of Trade soft red winter wheat for December delivery settled up five U.S. cents at US $5.35 1/4 a bushel, snapping a streak of four straight negative sessions. MGEX December spring wheat rose 3 1/2 cents higher to

$6.11 1/2 a bushel.

CBOT November soybeans were 18 1/4 cents higher at $10.21 1/2 a bushel. CBOT December corn, which also had fallen for four days in a row, rose 9 1/2 cents to $3.56 a bushel.

Corn and soybeans had touched four-year lows in the previous session as the approach of what are expected to be record U.S. corn and soybean harvests fuelled selling.

Wheat also received support on Friday from news that Russia’s agriculture ministry had proposed a curb on grain exports to balance the domestic market in a letter to the government, although the ministry later denied this.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2014    422.00    +8.70    +2.11%
Canola Jan 2015    427.20    +8.30    +1.98%
Canola Mar 2015    432.80    +8.30    +1.96%
Canola May 2015    437.00    +8.10    +1.89%
Canola Jul 2015    441.20    +7.90    +1.82%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014    198.00    +1.00    +0.51%
Milling Wheat Dec 2014    204.00    +1.00    +0.49%
Milling Wheat Mar 2015    212.00    +1.00    +0.47%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014    250.00    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2014    256.00    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2015    257.00    unch    0.00%

Barley Oct 2014    124.00    unch    0.00%
Barley Dec 2014    126.00    unch    0.00%
Barley Mar 2015    127.00    unch    0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2014    1085.5    +21.25    +2.00%
Soybeans Nov 2014    1021.5    +18.25    +1.82%
Soybeans Jan 2015    1028.25    +17.5    +1.73%
Soybeans Mar 2015    1035    +16.5    +1.62%
Soybeans May 2015    1041    +16    +1.56%
Soybeans Jul 2015    1047.25    +15.75    +1.53%

Soybean Meal Sep 2014    436.1    +4.7    +1.09%
Soybean Meal Oct 2014    357.3    +6.4    +1.82%
Soybean Meal Dec 2014    349.1    +7.6    +2.23%

Soybean Oil Sep 2014    32.35    +0.38    +1.19%
Soybean Oil Oct 2014    32.28    +0.28    +0.88%
Soybean Oil Dec 2014    32.48    +0.27    +0.84%

Corn Sep 2014    346.5    +10.75    +3.20%
Corn Dec 2014    356    +9.5    +2.74%
Corn Mar 2015    368.75    +9.25    +2.57%
Corn May 2015    377    +8.75    +2.38%
Corn Jul 2015    384.25    +8.75    +2.33%

Oats Sep 2014    368.25    +4    +1.10%
Oats Dec 2014    345    +4    +1.17%
Oats Mar 2015    332.5    +3.25    +0.99%
Oats May 2015    324.75    +4    +1.25%
Oats Jul 2015    323.75    +4    +1.25%

Wheat Sep 2014    531.5    +6.25    +1.19%
Wheat Dec 2014    535.25    +5    +0.94%
Wheat Mar 2015    553    +3    +0.55%
Wheat May 2015    564.75    +2    +0.36%
Wheat Jul 2015    573.5    +2    +0.35%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2014    626.25    +4    +0.64%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014    611.5    +3.5    +0.58%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015    625.75    +3.5    +0.56%
Spring Wheat May 2015    635.5    +3.25    +0.51%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015    643.5    +2.5    +0.39%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2014    619.75    +11.5    +1.89%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014    628.5    +8.25    +1.33%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015    635.25    +6.75    +1.07%
Hard Red Wheat May 2015    636.75    +5    +0.79%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015    624.25    +2.75    +0.44%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $1.16 at $93.29 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 91.83 cents US, down from 92.06 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0890 Cdn.

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