Harvest delays support canola, Minneapolis wheat premiums rise

Reading Time: 4 minutes

Published: October 4, 2016

The first major snowfall of the season in Saskatchewan and wet conditions in a good part of the Prairies has put harvest on hold for several days for many producers.

Canola futures edged higher with help from a weaker loonie and the harvest delay.

Rain and snow is also expected off and on until Saturday.

U.S. crop markets were mostly lower with traders refocusing on the advancing Midwest harvest and signs of higher than expected soybean yields.

The USDA said Monday that soybean harvest was 26 percent complete as of Sunday, ahead of the trade estimates’ average of 25 percent but behind the five-year average of 27 percent.

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The USDA is still issuing condition ratings for the soybean crop and this week it pushed up the good to excellent rating by one percentage point to 74 percent.

Brokerage INTL FCStone raised its estimate of the average U.S. 2016 soybean yield to a record 52.5 bushels per acre from 50.1 in its previous monthly report.

The official USDA forecast is 50.6 bu. per acre. Last year’s yield was 48 bu. an acre.

U.S. corn harvest was 24 percent complete by Sunday, behind the trade estimates’ average of 25 percent and the five-year average of 27 percent.

The U.S. winter wheat crop was 43 percent planted, behind the five-year average of 45 percent and analysts’ average expectation of 47 percent, the USDA said.

WHEAT

In the last few days the premium of Minneapolis spring wheat futures over Kansas winter wheat futures has widened.

The premium of December Minneapolis over Kansas is now about $1.20, up about 40 cents since the start of September.

The winter crop already had protein problems and now the spring wheat crop in Canada and the northern U.S. has also endured bad weather that has lead to diseased, lower protein grain.

The USDA on Friday lowered its estimate of U.S. spring wheat output, excluding durum, to 534 million bu. from 571 million previously. The average estimate among analysts surveyed by Reuters was for 570 million bushels.

Rain has also hurt wheat production in Australia and France.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 12 cents to US$48.69 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.93 cents, down from 76.12 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3170.

Stock market investors were in a negative mood.

British Prime Minister Theresa May warned the departure from the EU would have “bumps in the road” and the International Monetary Fund lowered its 2016 growth forecast for the U.S. economy to 1.6 percent from 2.2 percent.

But monthly U.S. manufacturing data came in better than expected, raising the potential for an interest rate hike in December.

The British pound’s weakness lifted the U.S. dollar and the potential for higher U.S. interest rates turned investors off gold, which fell the most in nearly three years.

That hit gold miner shares, which make up a significant part of the Toronto market.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index fell 168.12 points, or 1.14 percent, closing at 14,520.92.

The Dow Jones industrial average. fell 0.47 percent to end at 18,168.45 and the S&P 500 lost 0.5 percent to 2,150.49.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.21 percent to 5,289.66.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 16   467.00   +1.10   +0.24%

Canola Jan 17   474.70 +1.10   +0.23%

Canola Mar 17   480.10   +1.30   +0.27%

Canola May 17   484.20   +0.50   +0.10%

Canola Jul 17   485.80   -0.60   -0.12%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 16   223.00   -1.00   -0.45%

Milling Wheat Dec 16   227.00   unch   unch

Milling Wheat Mar 17   231.00   -1.00   -0.43%

 

Durum Wheat Oct 16   283.00   unch   unch

Durum Wheat Dec 16   282.00   unch   unch

Durum Wheat Mar 17   289.00   unch   unch

 

Barley Oct 16   132.50   unch   unch

Barley Dec 16   132.50   unch   unch

Barley Mar 17 134.50   unch   unch

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 2016 963.50 -9.50 -0.98%

Soybeans Jan 2017 969.25 -8.75 -0.89%

Soybeans Mar 2017 976.00 -8.50 -0.86%

Soybeans May 2017 982.00 -8.25 -0.83%

Soybeans Jul 2017 987.50 -7.50 -0.75%

Soybeans Aug 2017 986.75 -7.00 -0.70%

 

Soybean Meal Oct 2016 304.50 -1.40 -0.46%

Soybean Meal Dec 2016 306.30 -2.10 -0.68%

Soybean Meal Jan 2017 307.40 -2.10 -0.68%

 

Soybean Oil Oct 2016 32.89 -0.16 -0.48%

Soybean Oil Dec 2016 33.10 -0.14 -0.42%

Soybean Oil Jan 2017 33.34 -0.14 -0.42%

 

Corn Dec 2016 348.25 +2.25 +0.65%

Corn Mar 2017 358.25 +2.50 +0.70%

Corn May 2017 365.25 +2.50 +0.69%

Corn Jul 2017 372.00 +3.00 +0.81%

Corn Sep 2017 378.50 +3.00 +0.80%

 

Oats Dec 2016 181.25 -1.75 -0.96%

Oats Mar 2017 185.50 -3.25 -1.72%

Oats May 2017 190.50 -3.50 -1.80%

Oats Jul 2017 196.75 unch 0.00%

Oats Sep 2017 204.50 +4.25 +2.12%

 

Wheat Dec 2016 395.50 unch 0.00%

Wheat Mar 2017 417.00 -0.25 -0.06%

Wheat May 2017 430.25 -0.25 -0.06%

Wheat Jul 2017 441.00 -0.25 -0.06%

Wheat Sep 2017 456.00 +0.25 +0.05%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 2016 522.25 +6.00 +1.16%

Spring Wheat Mar 2017 523.00 +1.50 +0.29%

Spring Wheat May 2017 528.00 unch 0.00%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017 534.75 -1.00 -0.19%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017 542.00 -1.00 -0.18%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 403.00 -4.00 -0.98%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 419.50 -4.00 -0.94%

Hard Red Wheat May 2017 430.25 -3.75 -0.86%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 440.75 -3.75 -0.84%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 456.00 -3.50 -0.76%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Oct 2016 101.90 +2.98 +3.01%

Live Cattle (P) Dec 2016 102.68 +2.71 +2.71%

Live Cattle (P) Feb 2017 103.15 +2.78 +2.77%

 

Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2016 128.00 +4.03 +3.25%

Feeder Cattle (P) Nov 2016 123.75 +4.47 +3.75%

Feeder Cattle (P) Jan 2017 120.02 +4.22 +3.64%

 

Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2016 48.62 -0.31 -0.63%

Lean Hogs (P) Dec 2016 43.50 -0.67 -1.52%

Lean Hogs (P) Feb 2017 49.92 -0.73 -1.44%

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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