Canola futures rose along with all other crop futures Thursday.
The main supports were:
• a little concern over recent harvest rain delays in Canada and the U.S. and a further delay this weekend in the U.S.,
• the U.S. dollar falling against most currencies,
• bargain buying and
• slow farmer deliveries.
Farmers are hoping to wait out the recent downswing in oilseed prices in the expectation that values could improve once the harvest rush is over.
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Canola traders await Friday’s Statistics Canada report on the size of crops. The report is based on farmer surveys. The harvest had begun when the surveys were done and lots of producers at the time were talking about happy surprises regarding yields.
Reuters said the average of traders’ estimates for the size of the canola crop is 16.6 million tonnes.
Saskatchewan’s farmers have 78 percent of the crop harvested, behind last year’s pace but ahead of the five-year average, the agriculture department said today. Recent wind damage to canola swaths was reported.
Wheat futures rose again. There is a threat of frost in parts of Australia’s wheat regions on the weekend. Excess rain is preventing winter wheat seeding in Ukraine and parts of Russia.
Argentina is also having weather problems and a United Nations Food and Agriculture report pegged that country’s wheat crop at only 9.5 million tonnes, well short of the USDA’s forecast of 12 million.
On the other hand, Statistics Canada is likely to report a huge Canadian wheat crop tomorrow. Traders are expecting somewhere around 32 million tonnes, well above last year’s 27.2 million tonnes. If it is much higher than 32 million, that could dampen the recent wheat rally.
Heavy precipitation is expected in South Dakota over the weekend. There is a chance of more than a food of snow. Wisconsin is also expected to get heavy rain. Lesser amounts are expected in Iowa and Minnesota.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013 484.20 +6.50 +1.36%
Canola Jan 2014 493.30 +6.20 +1.27%
Canola Mar 2014 500.50 +6.40 +1.30%
Canola May 2014 506.50 +6.60 +1.32%
Canola Jul 2014 511.40 +6.90 +1.37%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013 242.00 +1.00 +0.41%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 244.00 +1.00 +0.41%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 248.00 +1.00 +0.40%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013 243.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 247.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 253.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2013 149.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 152.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 154.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2013 1288.25 +14.5 +1.14%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1289 +13.25 +1.04%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1270.75 +13.25 +1.05%
Soybeans May 2014 1250.5 +11.5 +0.93%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1245 +11 +0.89%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1234.25 +10.5 +0.86%
Soybean Meal Oct 2013 427.8 +10.2 +2.44%
Soybean Meal Dec 2013 415.3 +3.6 +0.87%
Soybean Meal Jan 2014 409.8 +1.5 +0.37%
Soybean Oil Oct 2013 40.01 +0.89 +2.28%
Soybean Oil Dec 2013 40.27 +0.89 +2.26%
Soybean Oil Jan 2014 40.59 +0.88 +2.22%
Corn Dec 2013 439.25 +0.25 +0.06%
Corn Mar 2014 452 +0.25 +0.06%
Corn May 2014 460.25 +0.5 +0.11%
Corn Jul 2014 467.5 +0.5 +0.11%
Corn Sep 2014 473.25 +0.75 +0.16%
Oats Dec 2013 317 +3.25 +1.04%
Oats Mar 2014 308.5 +3.25 +1.06%
Oats May 2014 307.75 +3 +0.98%
Oats Jul 2014 302.5 +3 +1.00%
Oats Sep 2014 307.5 +3 +0.99%
Wheat Dec 2013 689.25 +3.25 +0.47%
Wheat Mar 2014 697 +3.25 +0.47%
Wheat May 2014 701.25 +5.25 +0.75%
Wheat Jul 2014 691.5 +9.75 +1.43%
Wheat Sep 2014 697.5 +10.5 +1.53%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 750.25 +3.5 +0.47%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 754.75 +3.25 +0.43%
Spring Wheat May 2014 755.5 +4 +0.53%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 755.25 +5 +0.67%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 753.75 +5 +0.67%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 755.5 +1 +0.13%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 753.5 +3.25 +0.43%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 749.75 +5.75 +0.77%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 731.25 +9.25 +1.28%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 738.25 +9.75 +1.34%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 79 cents at $103.31 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 96.87 cents US, up from 96.79 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0323 Cdn.
Stock markets fell as the partial shutdown of the U.S. government dragged on into the third day. Also the government will soon have to deal with a resolution to increase the debt ceiling to ensure that those who hold U.S. debt are paid. If legislators fail to raise the debt ceiling it could shake global confidence in the U.S.
In early, unofficial tallies —
The Toronto Stock Exchange composite closed at 12,735.12, down 103.88 points or 0.81 percent.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 136.73 points, or 0.90 percent, at 14,996.41.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 15.23 points, or 0.90 percent, at 1,678.64.
The Nasdaq Composite Index .as down 40.68 points, or 1.07 percent, at 3,774.34.
