The USDA report Friday provided mixed signals to the market, resulting in oilseed and corn prices that were up a little from Thursday but wheat fell.
The report trimmed the current crop year ending stocks for corn and soybean forecast more than expected, but USDA did not trim its 2015-16 crop production forecasts and the new crop year end stocks were higher than expected.
November canola closed at $534.90, up $2.80 on the day and up $1.40 on the week.
The market was also strongly influenced by weather. More rain is expected in the Midwest this weekend where there is already too much moisture in some places. That supported corn and soybeans.
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Also, a recovery in the Chinese stock market and more optimistic news from the Greek debt negotiations made traders more up beat.
Canola and other crops in Western Canada are under great stress from heat today and the plus-30 C temperatures will continue Saturday.
However, one of the best chances this season for widespread rain on the Western Prairies appears to developing for Sunday and early next week. Yield losses are already significant, but this rain could help, at least temporarily, to preserve the current potential yield.
Corn futures performed the best on American exchanges on Friday, climbing more than one percent. Soybeans were up less than one percent and wheat closed more than one percent lower.
Traders put more weight on the old crop stocks report because it was more of a sure thing. There is a lot of weather between now and harvest.
USDA made a minor cut to Canadian wheat production, trimming it to 27.5 million tonnes from 29 million, trimmed European production by about three million tonnes to 147.88 million and increased wheat production from the former Soviet Union by four million tonnes to 109.88 million. (Reuters reported Friday that Ukraine and Russian officials admitted their forecasts might have to be scaled back a little because of heat and excess rain in various regions in the run up to harvest.)
USDA boosted old crop year end global wheat stocks by 12.4 million tonnes, due mainly to reduced feed wheat use in China.
The larger carry in was the main reason for the increase in 2015-16 year end stocks to almost 220 million tonnes from 202.4 million in the previous monthly report.
The USDA pegged U.S. corn 2014-15 stocks at 1.771 billion bushels, 160 million bu. less than the average trade estimate at 1.811 billion.
It said U.S. corn 2015-16 production would be 13.53 billion bu. The average trade estimate was 13.44 billion bu.
And it pegged U.S. corn new crop 2015-16 stocks at 1.599 billion bu. The average trade estimate was 1.540 billion
USDA lowered 2014-15 U.S. soybean stocks to 255 million bu.
The average trade estimate was 287 million.
USDA said U.S. farmers would produce 3.885 billion bu. of soybeans. Average trade estimate was 3.774 billion.
USDA soybean new crop 2015-16 U.S. stocks were 425 million bu. Average trade estimate was 370 million.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down four cents to US$52.74 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US78.65 cents, up from 78.56 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2715.
There were renewed hopes that new proposals from Greece would be accepted, allowing it to secure funding needed to meet its debt payment obligations.
In an unofficial tally, the TSX composite closed up 132.58 points or 0.93 percent at 14,411.07.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 211.26 points, or 1.2 percent, to 17,759.88, the S&P 500 gained 25.24 points, or 1.23 percent, to 2,076.55 and the Nasdaq Composite added 75.30 points, or 1.53 percent, to 4,997.70.
For the week, the TSX composite was down 1.8 percent, the Dow rose 0.17 percent, the S&P fell 0.01 percent and the Nasdaq ended down 0.23 percent in its third straight weekly decline.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2015 542.90 +2.60 +0.48%
Canola Nov 2015 534.90 +2.80 +0.53%
Canola Jan 2016 534.90 +2.30 +0.43%
Canola Mar 2016 532.10 +1.80 +0.34%
Canola May 2016 527.00 +1.10 +0.21%
Milling Wheat Jul 2015 248.00 -4.00 -1.59%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015 245.00 -4.00 -1.61%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015 245.00 -4.00 -1.61%
Durum Wheat Jul 2015 298.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015 298.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015 303.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2015 218.40 +1.00 +0.46%
Barley Oct 2015 218.40 +1.00 +0.46%
Barley Dec 2015 220.40 +1.00 +0.46%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2015 1043.5 +5.75 +0.55%
Soybeans Aug 2015 1032 +5.75 +0.56%
Soybeans Sep 2015 1024 +6.75 +0.66%
Soybeans Nov 2015 1022.25 +6.5 +0.64%
Soybeans Jan 2016 1028.25 +6.25 +0.61%
Soybeans Mar 2016 1022 +5.5 +0.54%
Soybean Meal Jul 2015 366 +2 +0.55%
Soybean Meal Aug 2015 355.6 +0.5 +0.14%
Soybean Meal Sep 2015 351.5 +0.5 +0.14%
Soybean Oil Jul 2015 32.31 +0.04 +0.12%
Soybean Oil Aug 2015 32.42 +0.05 +0.15%
Soybean Oil Sep 2015 32.5 +0.06 +0.18%
Corn Jul 2015 427.25 +6 +1.42%
Corn Sep 2015 434.75 +6 +1.40%
Corn Dec 2015 445 +6 +1.37%
Corn Mar 2016 454.75 +5.75 +1.28%
Corn May 2016 459.75 +5.75 +1.27%
Oats Jul 2015 249.25 +3.5 +1.42%
Oats Sep 2015 258 +3.5 +1.38%
Oats Dec 2015 269.5 +1.75 +0.65%
Oats Mar 2016 279.75 +0.5 +0.18%
Oats May 2016 282.5 +0.5 +0.18%
Wheat Jul 2015 581.5 +9.25 +1.62%
Wheat Sep 2015 576 -2 -0.35%
Wheat Dec 2015 583.5 -2.5 -0.43%
Wheat Mar 2016 591 -3 -0.51%
Wheat May 2016 594 -3.5 -0.59%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 597.25 -8.5 -1.40%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 607.5 -11.5 -1.86%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 621.5 -11 -1.74%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 632.25 -10.25 -1.60%
Spring Wheat May 2016 639 -9.5 -1.46%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 557.5 -7.5 -1.33%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 572.25 -7 -1.21%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 592.25 -7 -1.17%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 606.25 -7 -1.14%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016 614 -7 -1.13%
