Friday market wrap: strong loonie weakens canola

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Published: September 2, 2017

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The sharply stronger Canadian dollar, that hit a two-year high, weighed down canola on Friday.

Hedge selling, as grain companies offset buying of new crop from the combine, also weighed on canola.

The dollar rose on ideas that the Bank of Canada could raise interest rates at its meeting next week. Expectations for a hike this month increased following news Thursday that the economy in the second quarter grew at the fastest pace in nearly six years.

Losses in canola were limited by stronger soybeans and soy oil, which rose on ideas that limits on Argentine soy biodiesel imports to the U.S. will lead to more demand for American soy oil to make into the fuel.

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Photo: JHVEPhoto/Getty Images Plus

U.S. grains: Soybean futures jump on hopes for US export demand

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures jumped on hopes for U.S. export demand on Wednesday, while corn futures rose for a third day to extend a recovery from contract lows, analysts said.

Winter wheat futures rose on technical buying but Minneapolis spring wheat fell.

Corn was down on new private analyst forecasts of U.S. production.

INTL FCStone raised its estimate of corn yield to 166.9 bu. per acre and Informa Economics raised its to 169.2 bu.

Both were still lower than the USDA’s current forecast of 169.5 bu. but the fact that they raised their estimates from last month was seen as bearish.

The USDA updates its forecast on Sept. 12.

For the week, November canola fell $3.60 per tonne.

The weather in western Canada should remain conducive to harvest progress with almost no rain in the forecast for the next seven days.

The Alberta crop report said that as of Aug. 29 harvest was deemed to be 18 percent complete in the province, largely on advances in the south and central regions.

An additional 12 percent of crops are in the swath. Regional harvest progress is ahead of the five-year averages in the south and central regions but lagging in the remainder of the province.

CRUSH

The crush so far this crop year stands at little less than 600,000 tonnes, a little behind last year’s pace, and capacity use in the past week was only at 65 percent.

There is little canola in the commercial system.

The Canadian Grain Commission said supply in commercial hands is the lowest in four years at only 511,500 tonnes.

Weekly exports were only 47,200 tonnes, down from 96,100 tonnes the week before. For the first four weeks of the crop year, canola exports are at 508,600 tonnes, a little ahead of last year at the same time.

Farmer deliveries and exports will start to pick up once more of the crop is harvested.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up six cents US$47.29 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US80.71 cents, up from 80.12 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2390.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended down 20.27 points, or 0.13 percent, at 15,191.60.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 39.46 points, or 0.18 percent, to end at 21,987.56, the S&P 500 gained 4.9 points, or 0.20 percent, to 2,476.55 and the Nasdaq Composite added 6.67 points, or 0.1 percent, to 6,435.33.

The TSX rose 0.9 on the week, the Dow gained 0.8 percent, the S&P rose 1.3 percent and the Nasdaq rose 2.7 percent.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 17   497.30s   -2.20   -0.44%

Canola Jan 18   503.80s   -1.30   -0.26%

Canola Mar 18   510.20s   -0.80   -0.16%

Canola May 18   512.70s   -1.10   -0.21%

Canola Jul 18   513.80s   -1.20   -0.23%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 17   232.00s   -6.00   -2.52%

Milling Wheat Dec 17   236.00s   -6.00   -2.48%

Milling Wheat Mar 18   245.00s   -6.00   -2.39%

 

Durum Wheat Oct 17   295.00s   -1.00   -0.34%

Durum Wheat Dec 17   297.00s   -1.00   -0.34%

Durum Wheat Mar 18   299.00s   unch   unch

 

Barley Oct 17   145.00s   unch   unch

Barley Dec 17  148.00s   unch   unch

Barley Mar 18   151.00s   unch   unch

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Sep 17   942-0s   +5-6   +0.61%

Soybeans Nov 17   949-4s   +4-2   +0.45%

Soybeans Jan 18   959-2s   +4-4   +0.47%

Soybeans Mar 18   968-4s   +4-2   +0.44%

Soybeans May 18   977-4s   +4-6   +0.49%

 

Soybean Meal Sep 17   293.2s   -1.1   -0.37%

Soybean Meal Oct 17   295.5s   -1.0   -0.34%

Soybean Meal Dec 17   298.8s   -0.7   -0.23%

 

Soybean Oil Sep 17   35.31s   +0.60   +1.73%

Soybean Oil Oct 17   35.42s   +0.61   +1.75%

Soybean Oil Dec 17   35.67s   +0.61   +1.74%

 

Corn Sep 17   340-0s   -2-2   -0.66%

Corn Dec 17   355-2s   -2-4   -0.70%

Corn Mar 18   367-6s   -2-6   -0.74%

Corn May 18   375-2s   -2-4   -0.66%

Corn Jul 18   381-6s   -2-2   -0.59%

 

Oats Sep 17   223-4s   unch   unch

Oats Dec 17   236-2s   -0-6   -0.32%

Oats Mar 18   243-0s   -1-2   -0.51%

Oats May 18   240-6s   -1-0   -0.41%

Oats Jul 18   236-6s   +0-2   +0.11%

 

Wheat Sep 17   420-4s   +10-2   +2.50%

Wheat Dec 17   438-6s   +4-2   +0.98%

Wheat Mar 18   460-0s   +3-0   +0.66%

Wheat May 18   473-0s   +2-4   +0.53%

Wheat Jul 18   485-6s   +2-2   +0.47%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 17   612-0s   -6-4   -1.05%

Spring Wheat Dec 17   631-6s   -8-6   -1.37%

Spring Wheat Mar 18   643-0s   -8-0   -1.23%

Spring Wheat May 18  641-4s   -6-4   -1.00%

Spring Wheat Jul 18   637-6s   -5-2   -0.82%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 17   412-4s   +3-6   +0.92%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 17   438-6s   +2-4   +0.57%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 18   456-2s   +2-2   +0.50%

Hard Red Wheat May 18   470-0s +2-2   +0.48%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18   487-0s   +2-2   +0.46%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Oct 17   105.150s   -0.250   -0.24%

Live Cattle Dec 17   109.475s   +0.375   +0.34%

Live Cattle Feb 18   112.925s   +0.575   +0.51%

 

Feeder Cattle Sep 17   142.725s   +0.150   +0.11%

Feeder Cattle Oct 17   143.550s   +0.250   +0.17%

Feeder Cattle Nov 17   143.950s   +0.275   +0.19%

 

Lean Hogs Oct 17   61.450s   +0.050   +0.08%

Lean Hogs Dec 17   58.050s   +0.025   +0.04%

Lean Hogs Feb 18   62.725s   +0.075   +0.12%

 

 

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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