Friday market review: Canola drifts lower although stocks tighten

The canola market focused more on a sharp drop in soybean oil futures Friday than the Statistics Canada Dec. 31 stocks numbers.

March canola closed at $513.30, down $1.90 or 0.37 percent.

November closed at 501.80, down $2.30 or 0.46 percent.

Over the week, March was down $4.60 or 0.9 percent and November was down $3.30 or 0.65 percent.

Soybeans were down about one percent on the day Friday and soy oil closed down more than two percent.

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CANOLA STOCKS

Statistics Canada today issued its Dec. 31 grain stocks report.

It pegged canola stocks at 12.159 million tonnes, down 9.6 percent at the same time last year.

That was about where the market expected.

If you add the Dec. stocks to the exports to the end of December, which were about 4.138 million as well as domestic use at about 3.99 million you can surmise that the total canola supply at the start of the crop year was about 20.3 million tonnes.

That is pretty close to Agriculture Canada’s estimate.

It had estimated the total supply at 20.54 million tonnes, a combination of an 18.42 million tonne crop, a carry in of 2.01 million tonnes and imports of 0.1 million.

So that would imply that the 18.42 million tonne crop estimate is fairly accurate and maybe even a tiny bit high.

Maybe the ideas that the crop was 19 million tonnes or more will prove overly optimistic.

But there is still some uncertainty. Some wonder if today’s stocks report accurately reflects how much canola is still in fields this winter.

WHEAT STOCKS

StatsCan pegged wheat stocks at 18.13 million tonnes, up 5.4 percent from last year and durum at 6.901 million, up 63.1 percent, slightly more than the trade expected.

Wheat futures closed a little lower on Friday. Cold weather is expected in Black Sea regions but the crop is mostly protected under a blanket of snow.

CANOLA DEMAND GREAT

The weekly canola crush rose to 188,392 tonnes, up 1.5 percent from the week before. That represented a crush capacity use of just over 88 percent, a shade lower than the to-date average of 89.3 percent.

The total crush this crop year is 4.7 million tonnes, up 14 percent from last year.

Canola exports to week 26, the half way point of the crop year, were 275,500 tonnes, up from 238,700 the previous week.

For the year exports total 5.29 million tonnes, up almost 11 percent.

If canola stocks become very tight later in the crop year, the value increase will likely be expressed in a favourable basis rather than much higher futures because of the drag from other global oilseeds.

OTHER OILSEED NEWS

INTL FCStone on Thursday raised its estimate for Brazil’s 2016-17 soybean crop to 104.08 million tonnes from a previous projection of 102.76 million.

Palm oil analyst Dorab Mistry this week said he thinks palm oil prices in Malaysia could fall about 20 percent to around 2,500 ringgits from current levels of around 3,200 as production recovers in the coming months from last year’s drought.

The U.S. added more jobs than expected in January, up 227,000 compared to the forecast of 180,000. However the unemployment rate rose to 4.8 percent from 4.7 percent as more people re-entered the job market. Monthly wage gains were a little less than expected.

Stocks of banks and other financial institutions rose Friday as President Donald Trump issued an order cutting regulation in the American financial industry.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 77.28 points, or 0.50 percent, at 15,476.39.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 185.52 points, or 0.93 percent, to end at 20,070.43, the S&P 500 gained 16.43 points, or 0.72 percent, to 2,297.28 and the Nasdaq Composite .added 30.57 points, or 0.54 percent, to 5,666.77.

Over the week, the TSX composite fell 0.6 percent, the Dow edged down 0.1 percent, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 both rose 0.1 percent.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 29 cents to US$53.83 per barrel.

The loonie is the strongest it has been since September.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.90 cents, up from 76.81 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3004.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2017   513.30   -1.90   -0.37%

Canola May 2017   520.80   -1.90   -0.36%

Canola Jul 2017   523.80   -2.00   -0.38%

Canola Nov 2017   501.80   -2.30   -0.46%

Canola Jan 2018   506.10   -2.40   -0.47%

 

Milling Wheat Mar 2017   235.00   -2.00   -0.84%

Milling Wheat May 2017   239.00   -2.00   -0.83%

Milling Wheat Jul 2017   241.00   -3.00   -1.23%

 

Durum Wheat Mar 2017   296.00   -1.00   -0.34%

Durum Wheat May 2017   298.00   -1.00   -0.33%

Durum Wheat Jul 2017   298.00   unch   0.00%

 

Barley Mar 2017   135.00   unch   0.00%

Barley May 2017   137.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Jul 2017   138.00   unch   0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2017   1027.00   -10.25   -0.99%

Soybeans May 2017   1037.25   -10.00   -0.95%

Soybeans Jul 2017   1045.75   -9.50   -0.90%

Soybeans Aug 2017   1043.75   -9.50   -0.90%

Soybeans Sep 2017   1026.75   -8.75   -0.85%

Soybeans Nov 2017   1009.75   -8.75   -0.86%

 

Soybean Meal Mar 2017   331.60   -2.20   -0.66%

Soybean Meal May 2017   335.30   -2.20   -0.65%

Soybean Meal Jul 2017   338.10   -2.10   -0.62%

 

Soybean Oil Mar 2017   33.86   -0.73   -2.11%

Soybean Oil May 2017   34.15   -0.73   -2.09%

Soybean Oil Jul 2017   34.42   -0.73   -2.08%

 

Corn Mar 2017   365.25   -2.25   -0.61%

Corn May 2017   372.75   -2.25   -0.60%

Corn Jul 2017   379.75   -2.25   -0.59%

Corn Sep 2017   386.00   -2.25   -0.58%

Corn Dec 2017   392.75   -1.75   -0.44%

 

Oats Mar 2017   258.75   +3.75   +1.47%

Oats May 2017   249.50   +2.50   +1.01%

Oats Jul 2017   248.00   +2.75   +1.12%

Oats Sep 2017   237.25   +4.50   +1.93%

Oats Dec 2017   232.25   +3.75   +1.64%

 

Wheat Mar 2017   430.25   -4.25   -0.98%

Wheat May 2017   443.00   -4.00   -0.89%

Wheat Jul 2017   456.25   -4.50   -0.98%

Wheat Sep 2017   471.00   -4.25   -0.89%

Wheat Dec 2017   488.50   -4.00   -0.81%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2017   558.25   -2.75   -0.49%

Spring Wheat May 2017   556.00   -2.75   -0.49%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017   559.50   -1.75   -0.31%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017   562.25   -1.75   -0.31%

Spring Wheat Dec 2017   570.25   -0.75   -0.13%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017   440.50   -3.00   -0.68%

Hard Red Wheat May 2017   453.50   -2.50   -0.55%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017   465.75   -2.50   -0.53%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017   480.25   -2.50   -0.52%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017   501.50   -2.75   -0.55%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Feb 2017   116.90   +0.03   +0.03%

Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017   115.62   +0.15   +0.13%

Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017   105.65   +0.13   +0.12%

 

Feeder Cattle (P) Mar 2017   123.57   -0.18   -0.15%

Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017   123.50   -0.10   -0.08%

Feeder Cattle (P) May 2017   122.37   -0.13   -0.11%

 

Lean Hogs (P) Feb 2017   70.32   -0.03   -0.04%

Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017   70.25   +0.67   +0.96%

Lean Hogs (P) May 2017   74.50   +0.42   +0.57%