Canola and soybean futures closed Friday little changed as the market awaits new news to trade on.
Chicago wheat was the weak man of the grains complex today, falling more than one percent, but spring wheat edged higher.
Crop futures prices generally drifted lower over the week as expectations rose that South America will produce large crops and that the U.S. will seed large amounts of soybeans and corn in the coming spring.
Big funds are trimming down net long positions they built up in most of the grains over the last few weeks.
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WATCH WEEKLY VIDEO MARKETS UPDATE
May canola closed at $516.70, down 50 cents on the day.
For the week, May fell $8.30 cents or 1.6 percent.
New crop November closed today at $497.80 per tonne, up $1.50
For the week, November fell $3.70 or 0.7 percent.
Canola is under downward pressure from general weakness in oilseeds, but it is supported by the strong pace of exports and crush that should result in a tight carryout.
Agriculture Canada’s supply and demand spreadsheet recently adjusted its export and crush numbers to reflect the strong pace to date and it also lowered its carry out forecast to 1.1 million tonnes from two million in previous reports.
That would be the tightest since the end of 2012-13 when carryout was 588,000 tonnes.
Tight stocks should start to tighten the basis, but it has not yet.
The ICE Futures benchmark basis is at $27.43 under the March contact. A year ago it was $10 under.
US MARKETS
Compared to the previous Friday, the May soybean contract fell 19 cents per bushel or 1.8 percent.
Over the week corn dipped 4.75 cents a bushel or 1.3 percent.
And while Chicago soft wheat was under pressure, the Minneapolis hard red spring wheat contract barely budged. It was down 0.75 cent or 0.1 percent over the week.
DOMESTIC CRUSH STRONG
While canola crush margins have declined this winter, the crush pace is still strong.
The weekly crush to Feb. 22 was 201,410 tonnes, up 12.6 percent from the week before and representing 94.2 percent of crush capacity.
That is well ahead of average to date of 89.7 percent.
So far this crop year, members of the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association have crushed 5.26 million tonnes, up from 4.62 million last year.
EXPORTS
In week 29 of the crop year, to Feb. 19, exports suffered partly due to excessive rain and snow at the West Coast.
The most recent performance update from the grain monitoring program by Quorum Corp. drew attention to the weather problems in the previous week.
“Heavy rain and snowfall causing slides and avalanches in the Southern Rockies, has disrupted rail traffic moving into the Vancouver area, particularly on CP lines. CN has seen added traffic as the carrier has shouldered diverted trains from southern routes. Terminal elevators have faced sequencing challenges with grain arrivals. Despite disruptions, Vancouver unloads held up relatively well in Week 28.”
Shipments of all grains in week 29 were only 544,500 tonnes, down from 683,500 tonnes the week before and 741,300 two weeks ago.
In the week, 158,600 tonnes of canola were shipped, down from 181,800 the week before.
For the year, canola exports totaled 5.92 million tonnes, about 500,000 tonnes ahead of last year at the same point.
Only 94,000 tonnes of wheat were shipped in the week, down from 292,000 tonnes the week before.
For the year, only 7.25 million tonnes have been shipped, down 1.85 million from the same point last year.
The vessel line up at Vancouver was higher than normal at 28 vessels. At Prince Rupert nine vessels are in the line up, which is also more than normal.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell 46 cents to US$53.99 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.31 cents, up slightly from 76.28 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3104.
The Toronto market was down sharply today as investors question whether the Trump rally has gone too far, too fast. Also U.S. president Trump’s musings on a border tax also caused worry for Canada’s export dependent economy
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index unofficially closed down 247.73 points, or 1.57 percent, at 15,533.47.
But the rally managed to barely keep rolling in the U.S.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average today rose 9.11 points, or 0.04 percent, to 20,819.43, the S&P 500 gained 3.37 points, or 0.14 percent, to 2,367.18 and the Nasdaq Composite added 9.80 points, or 0.17 percent, to 5,845.31.
Over the week, the TSX composite fell 0.26 percent, the Dow rose 0.95 percent, the S&P 500 rose 0.68 percent and the Nasdaq rose 0.12 percent.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Mar 17 515.30s +2.10 +0.41%
Canola May 17 516.70s -0.50 -0.10%
Canola Jul 17 520.40s +0.10 +0.02%
Canola Nov 17 497.80s +1.50 +0.30%
Canola Jan 18 503.40s +2.10 +0.42%
Milling Wheat Mar 17 231.00s unch unch
Milling Wheat May 17 236.00s unch unch
Milling Wheat Jul 17 238.00s unch unch
Durum Wheat Mar 17 279.00s -2.00 -0.71%
Durum Wheat May 17 282.00s -1.00 -0.35%
Durum Wheat Jul 17 281.00s -1.00 -0.35%
Barley Mar 17 135.00s unch unch
Barley May 17 137.00s unch unch
Barley Jul 17 138.00s unch unch
American crop futures in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Mar 2017 1013.50 +2.00 +0.20%
Soybeans May 2017 1024.25 +1.75 +0.17%
Soybeans Jul 2017 1033.25 +1.75 +0.17%
Soybeans Aug 2017 1033.00 +1.75 +0.17%
Soybeans Sep 2017 1019.00 +2.25 +0.22%
Soybeans Nov 2017 1007.00 +2.50 +0.25%
Soybean Meal Mar 2017 331.30 +0.50 +0.15%
Soybean Meal May 2017 335.70 +0.50 +0.15%
Soybean Meal Jul 2017 338.80 +0.40 +0.12%
Soybean Oil Mar 2017 32.39 +0.07 +0.22%
Soybean Oil May 2017 32.67 +0.08 +0.25%
Soybean Oil Jul 2017 32.93 +0.06 +0.18%
Corn Mar 2017 364.00 -1.50 -0.41%
Corn May 2017 370.75 -1.75 -0.47%
Corn Jul 2017 378.25 -1.50 -0.39%
Corn Sep 2017 384.50 -1.25 -0.32%
Corn Dec 2017 391.00 -0.75 -0.19%
Oats Mar 2017 251.75 -1.50 -0.59%
Oats May 2017 250.00 -2.75 -1.09%
Oats Jul 2017 246.00 -2.50 -1.01%
Oats Sep 2017 237.75 -0.50 -0.21%
Oats Dec 2017 237.75 -0.75 -0.31%
Wheat Mar 2017 431.25 -6.75 -1.54%
Wheat May 2017 448.00 -5.50 -1.21%
Wheat Jul 2017 462.00 -5.00 -1.07%
Wheat Sep 2017 477.00 -5.00 -1.04%
Wheat Dec 2017 495.50 -4.25 -0.85%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2017 544.75 +0.75 +0.14%
Spring Wheat May 2017 553.75 +0.50 +0.09%
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 559.00 -0.50 -0.09%
Spring Wheat Sep 2017 564.75 -0.75 -0.13%
Spring Wheat Dec 2017 575.00 -1.00 -0.17%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 453.75 -4.00 -0.87%
Hard Red Wheat May 2017 467.00 -4.50 -0.95%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 478.50 -4.50 -0.93%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 492.75 -4.50 -0.90%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 512.00 -5.00 -0.97%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Feb 2017 123.75 +0.67 +0.54%
Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017 114.95 -1.58 -1.36%
Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017 104.85 -1.93 -1.81%
Feeder Cattle (P) Mar 2017 121.70 -3.45 -2.76%
Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017 121.55 -3.95 -3.15%
Feeder Cattle (P) May 2017 121.08 -3.57 -2.86%
Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017 68.02 +1.44 +2.16%
Lean Hogs (P) May 2017 73.98 +1.11 +1.52%
Lean Hogs (P) Jun 2017 77.82 +1.19 +1.55%
