The weather risk premium continued to come out of the crop market, pressuring canola and other crops lower Thursday.
Technical support in canola was breached, adding to the downward pressure.
Weather forecasts today held with the outlook that occasional showers and lack of heat will maintain favourable growing conditions in the U.S. Midwest, supporting the expectation of a record crop. Of course, if the forecasted rain does not come or is less than expected, then a risk premium will have to be added again.
Read Also
China soybean imports hit record June high on strong Brazil shipments
China’s soybean imports hit the highest level ever for the month of June, a Reuters calculation of customs data showed on Monday, driven by a surge in shipments from top supplier Brazil.
Canola was also pressured by a rising loonie, falling soy oil prices and generally favourable growing weather across the Prairies.
The November canola contract broke below $523, a level that it had bounced off for the past three days, and then dropped below $520, a resistance level set back last fall. This added further technical downward pressure.
November closed at $519.
The Saskatchewan Agriculture crop report today put the percentage of crop in good-excellent condition as follows: spring wheat 86 percent; durum 88 percent; oats 86 percent; barley 81 percent; canola 80 percent.
French analyst Strategie Grains on Thursday lifted its forecast for this year’s soft wheat harvest in the European Union for the second month in a row on favourable growing conditions in much of the bloc, Reuters reported.
Soft wheat output in the 28-member EU, including Croatia, which joined the bloc on July 1, is now expected to be 133.4 million tonnes, up 1.9 million tonnes from last month’s estimate and now up six percent on the 2012-13 crop, Reuters said.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013 519.90 -7.50 -1.42%
Canola Jan 2014 525.40 -7.90 -1.48%
Canola Mar 2014 529.90 -7.20 -1.34%
Canola May 2014 530.70 -5.60 -1.04%
Canola Jul 2014 531.00 -4.50 -0.84%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013 267.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 271.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 278.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013 302.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 307.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 312.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 199.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 199.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Aug 2013 1469.25 -8.25 -0.56%
Soybeans Sep 2013 1316.25 -13 -0.98%
Soybeans Nov 2013 1265.75 -17.75 -1.38%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1271 -17.5 -1.36%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1268.75 -16.5 -1.28%
Soybeans May 2014 1263.75 -15 -1.17%
Soybean Meal Aug 2013 470.4 +1.3 +0.28%
Soybean Meal Sep 2013 417.1 -6.4 -1.51%
Soybean Meal Oct 2013 382.2 -7.2 -1.85%
Soybean Oil Aug 2013 45.52 -0.27 -0.59%
Soybean Oil Sep 2013 45.57 -0.2 -0.44%
Soybean Oil Oct 2013 45.44 -0.14 -0.31%
Corn Sep 2013 541 +2.5 +0.46%
Corn Dec 2013 500.75 -1.25 -0.25%
Corn Mar 2014 513 -1.25 -0.24%
Corn May 2014 520.75 -1 -0.19%
Corn Jul 2014 527 -1 -0.19%
Oats Sep 2013 353.25 unch 0.00%
Oats Dec 2013 340.75 unch 0.00%
Oats Mar 2014 347.25 +1.25 +0.36%
Oats May 2014 347.5 +1.25 +0.36%
Oats Jul 2014 357 +1.25 +0.35%
Wheat Sep 2013 660.5 -4.5 -0.68%
Wheat Dec 2013 673 -4.75 -0.70%
Wheat Mar 2014 684.25 -6.25 -0.91%
Wheat May 2014 691.5 -6.5 -0.93%
Wheat Jul 2014 688.75 -6.5 -0.93%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2013 750.25 -5 -0.66%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 762 -5.25 -0.68%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 775 -5.25 -0.67%
Spring Wheat May 2014 783.75 -4.25 -0.54%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 788 -4.25 -0.54%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 716 -3 -0.42%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 726.25 -5 -0.68%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 731.25 -6 -0.81%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 726.75 -5.75 -0.78%
Oil rose on data that showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. fell to a two-month low last week.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $1.56 at $108.04 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 96.19 cents US, up from 95.92 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0396 Cdn.
U.S. stock markets were supported by stronger than expected quarterly profits at Morgan Stanley and by lingering support from comments of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke who said Wednesday that the bank would let employment and economic data guide its stimulus pullback.
In early unofficial tallies —
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose 60.08 points, or 0.48 percent, to close at 12,628.85.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 78.17 points, or 0.51 percent, to end at 15,548.69.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 8.46 points, or 0.50 percent, to finish at 1,689.37.
The Nasdaq Composite Index added just 1.28 points, or 0.04 percent, to close at 3,611.28.
