Expectations that Friday’s USDA reports will show the U.S. corn crop was bigger than previously reported and the good condition of the record large South American crops weighed heavily on crop futures Wednesday.
Even with the weaker loonie, down another half cent today, canola did not escape the downdraft. March closed at $430.10, down $6.90.
Canola basis is very wide with nearby delivery in the -$50 to -$55 per tonne area.
Commercial hedging and negative technical signals weighed on canola. The problems in transportation logistics and the record large Canadian canola crop continued as negative factors.
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U.S. grains: Soy drops on demand worries, corn firm as traders question lofty yield projections
U.S. soybean futures fell to a 1-1/2 week low on Tuesday as China continued to shun purchases from the United States and as forecasts for improved rains in the coming days reinforced expectations for a sizeable Midwest harvest.
The prospect of big South American crops pressured soybeans lower as did expectations of rising soybean acreage in the U.S. this spring.
In its quarterly financial report today Monsanto said it has sold more soybean seed and less corn seed in the U.S. in the period.
Malaysian palm oil fell on expectation of rising veg oil supply.
Traders expect USDA on Friday will increase its estimate of the size of the U.S. corn harvest and the size of world year end soybean stocks.
FC Stone said today growing conditions for Brazil’s soybean crop are excellent. It pegged its estimate of the country’s crop at a record 90.2 million tonnes. A Reuters poll says average of traders’ expectations for Friday’s USDA report puts Brazil’s soybean crop at 89.064 million tonnes. USDA’s December report was 88 million.
The Reuters poll average for Argentina’s soybean crop is 55.221 million tonnes, up from USDA’s December report at 54.5 million.
Northern Argentina’s corn and soybean fields got up to 50 millimetres of rain over night.
Corn was hammered down 2.4 percent today on worries that the USDA report Friday will have a bearish increase in the estimate of the U.S. corn harvest. Average of analyst’s expectation is 14.066 billion bushels, up from USDA’s previous estimate of 13.989 billion.
Also weighing on corn is the continuing trouble in exporting U.S. corn to China because of the presence of a GM variety not approved by Beijing. Chinese analyst Shanghai JC Intelligence today lowered its forecast of China’s corn imports to 4.4 million tonnes, down from 6.6 million previously. USDA had previous forecast China would import seven million tonnes this year.
Just about the only good news was that China appeared to be easing up on its checks of U.S. dried distillers grain.
Also positive was news from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. It has revised up its projection for U.S. gasoline use in 2014. Previous projections for falling gas use lead the Environmental Protection Agency to suggest that it would have to lower its ethanol blend mandate because there wouldn’t be enough gas to blend with the biofuel.
Now EIA expects gas consumption will hold steady at 134.6 billion U.S. gallons, up from the 132.9 billion projected in August. That means the amount of ethanol blended could remain at about 13.8 billion gallons instead of falling to 13 billion as proposed in November.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jan 2014 421.10 -7.00 -1.64%
Canola Mar 2014 430.10 -6.90 -1.58%
Canola May 2014 439.00 -6.80 -1.53%
Canola Jul 2014 447.20 -6.60 -1.45%
Canola Nov 2014 460.90 -6.10 -1.31%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 181.00 -2.00 -1.09%
Milling Wheat May 2014 187.00 -3.00 -1.58%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014 190.00 -4.00 -2.06%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 243.00 +1.00 +0.41%
Durum Wheat May 2014 247.00 +1.00 +0.41%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014 248.00 +1.00 +0.40%
Barley Mar 2014 146.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 148.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2014 148.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jan 2014 1300.75 +1.25 +0.10%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1269.25 -6.75 -0.53%
Soybeans May 2014 1250.5 -8.25 -0.66%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1237 -10.5 -0.84%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1205 -11.75 -0.97%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1144.5 -13.5 -1.17%
Soybean Meal Jan 2014 430.6 -4 -0.92%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014 412.5 -3.3 -0.79%
Soybean Meal May 2014 402.1 -3.6 -0.89%
Soybean Oil Jan 2014 37.43 -0.27 -0.72%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014 37.68 -0.25 -0.66%
Soybean Oil May 2014 38.01 -0.25 -0.65%
Corn Mar 2014 417 -9 -2.11%
Corn May 2014 425.25 -8.5 -1.96%
Corn Jul 2014 432.5 -8 -1.82%
Corn Sep 2014 439 -7.75 -1.73%
Corn Dec 2014 446 -7.25 -1.60%
Oats Mar 2014 376.5 +13 +3.58%
Oats May 2014 336 +7.5 +2.28%
Oats Jul 2014 322 +5.25 +1.66%
Oats Sep 2014 314 +3.5 +1.13%
Oats Dec 2014 303.5 unch 0.00%
Wheat Mar 2014 588.75 -13.75 -2.28%
Wheat May 2014 594.5 -13.25 -2.18%
Wheat Jul 2014 598.5 -13 -2.13%
Wheat Sep 2014 608.25 -12.75 -2.05%
Wheat Dec 2014 621.5 -13 -2.05%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 627 -3.75 -0.59%
Spring Wheat May 2014 629.25 -8.5 -1.33%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 637 -10.25 -1.58%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 645.75 -10.5 -1.60%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 660.25 -10.75 -1.60%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 637 -8.25 -1.28%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 636.25 -9.75 -1.51%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 634.75 -10 -1.55%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 646.25 -10.25 -1.56%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2014 659.75 -9.5 -1.42%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $1.34 at $92.33 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 92.56 cents US, down from 93.09 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0804 Cdn.
The Toronto Stock Exchange composite rose again today, lifted by rising shares of Valeant Pharmaceuticals.
In early unofficial tallies —
The TSX composite rose 17.7 points or 0.13 percent at 13,614.63.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 68.20 points or 0.41 percent, to end at 16,462.74.
The S&P 500 .SPX dipped 0.38 of a point, or 0.02 percent, to finish at 1,837.49.
The Nasdaq Composite added 12.43 points or 0.30 percent, to close at 4,165.611.
