The November Pool Return Outlook from the CWB is steady for wheat, durum and barley in the Harvest Pool.
The canola Harvest Pool is down $20 to $640 per tonne.
The base grade No. 1CW red spring wheat 12.5 percent protein in the Harvest Pool remains at $362 per tonne at port.
No. 1 CW amber durum 12.5 percent protein remains $355 per tonne at port.
Select CW two-row malting barley remains $350 per tonne at port.
The Early Delivery Pool saw a $6 per tonne decline in all grades and types of wheat.
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Durum and malting barley Early Delivery Pools are unchanged.
No. 1 CW red spring wheat 12.5 percent protein is now $354 per tonne at port, down from $360 in the October PRO.
The following is the CWB commentary from the November PRO.
2012-13 pools
Wheat
Global wheat fundamentals for the balance of the 2012-13 marketing year remain positive. Excessive rainfall in key wheat-growing regions in South America has resulted in severe downgrading of the wheat crop, while dry conditions in the U.S. Hard Red Winter wheat region have provided support to U.S. wheat futures markets recently. For much of the past month, however, wheat futures markets traded lower and Canadian export basis values continued to be under pressure versus comparable U.S. export values.
Wheat PROs reflect pool futures pricing activity to date along with forward price expectations. Current Minneapolis and Kansas wheat futures prices for the December 2012 – May 2013 period are in the range of $9.30 to $9.60 US per bushel and $9.15 to $9.45 US per bushel, respectively. The Early Delivery and Harvest pools are approximately 50 percent and 25 percent priced, respectively. The above-average protein content and excellent grade profile of the western Canadian spring wheat continues to result in narrow protein premiums and grade spreads.
Durum
There has been little new information in recent weeks to move the durum market. The market will continue to monitor crop prospects in the Mediterranean region, but as it stands today no major problems have developed in the region. Pricing of higher grade durum continues to hover near $400 US per tonne level at St. Lawrence ports. The Early Delivery and Harvest pools are now approximately 75 percent and 35 percent sold, respectively.
Two-row malting barley
The domestic malting barley market has remained steady over the past month, with limited supplies of malting-quality barley in Western Canada continuing to support malting barley values. No major crop quality problems have been reported during the Australian malting barley harvest. The Early Delivery and Harvest pools are less than 25 percent priced.
Canola
In spite of tight canola supplies and strong domestic crush demand, canola futures values have followed U.S. soybean futures lower over the past month. Canola ending stocks are expected to be very tight, and to date there has been little sign that demand is being rationed, all of which is positive for the canola price outlook going forward. The canola PRO reflects canola futures values in the range of $590 to $630 per tonne through May 2013, and less than 10 percent of the canola pool has been priced.
General pool assumptions:
- Canadian dollar at par versus the U.S. dollar
- Early Delivery Pools reflect market activity in the first half of the crop year, with sales to be executed by the end of February 2013 (farmer deliveries by the end of January)
- Harvest Pools reflect activity through the entire crop year, with sales to be executed by the end of August 2013 (farmer deliveries by the end of July)
