Canola futures rose Tuesday but U.S. crop futures were mostly down a little in cautious trade ahead of Wednesday’s USDA supply and demand reports.
Corn condition ratings released late Monday were lower than expected but corn futures edged lower as the latest forecasts indicate the potential for more rain in the eastern Midwest late this week. However, analysts think the weather is still warm enough that much of the Midwest will be under stress this week.
Hot weather in Western Canada is supporting the canola market today as heat blast could hurt yields, but generally the weather is not hot enough to do serious damage. Also, crusher buying was said to be supporting prices.
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Futures have been in technically overbought territory in recent days and that caused canola futures to be lower early in the trading day.
July canola is in delivery mode and expires Wednesday. It closed at $691.10, up $3.10.
November, the most traded month, closed at $631.10, up $3.10.
Winnipeg barley futures have been rising and generating a bit of trade. On Monday when the new barley contract rose $20 per tonne there were 142 trades.
• While corn and soybeans were down Tuesday, spring wheat futures spent part of the day higher before falling back.
Supporting wheat was the decline in U.S. spring wheat conditions in Monday’s crop condition report and reports from Black Sea exporters that their crops will be down substantially from last year.
It has been clear for many weeks that production in Ukraine and Russia will be down, but Kazakhstan said today that its crop would total only about 14 million tonnes, down from earlier estimates of 15-16 million and last year’s record 27 million tonnes.
Dry weather in southern parts of the country is to blame.
There were no details about how much of the grain crop would be wheat.
• The big questions for Wednesday’s USDA reports are how much will the department lower its corn yield forecast and how will it handle 2012-13 corn ending stocks. If it lowers yield and production, it will also likely lower consumption by cutting the amount used by livestock feeders and ethanol plants.
• Outside markets were down on worries about slowing economies around the world. Also another U.S. futures brokerage house is under investigation after PFG Best said it was missing client funds.
Winnipeg (per tonne)
Canola Jul 12 $691.10, up $3.10 +0.45%
Canola Nov 12 $631.10, up $3.10 +0.49%
Canola Mar 13 $634.80, up $2.30 +0.36%
The best bid the previous day in the par region was $665, said ICE Futures Canada. November futures yesterday closed at $628 per tonne, implying a basis of $37 over November.
The 14-day relative strength index for the November contact is 79.
Western Barley Jul 12 $247.00, up $10.00 +4.22%
Western Barley Oct 12 $241.00, up $10.00 +4.33%
Milling Wheat Oct 12 $300.50, unchanged
Milling Wheat Dec 12 $308.00, unchanged
Milling Wheat Mar 13 $318.00, unchanged
Durum Wheat Oct 12 $310.50, up $1.00 +0.32%
Durum Wheat Dec 12 $315.00, up $1.00 +0.32%
Durum Wheat Mar 13 $321.60, up $1.00 +0.31%
Barley Oct 12 $255.00, up $9.00 +3.66%
Barley Dec 12 $257.70, up $9.00 +3.62%
Barley Mar 13 $260.70, up $9.00 +3.58%
Chicago (per bushel)
Soybeans (P) Jul 12 $16.4875, down 16.25 cents -0.98%
Soybeans (P) Aug 12 $15.905, down 16.25 -1.01%
Soybeans (P) Sep 12 $15.5775, down 15.25 -0.97%
Soybeans (P) Nov 12 $15.40 -7.75 -0.50%
Corn (P) Jul 12 $7.61, down 14.25 -1.84%
Corn (P) Sep 12 $7.185, down 13.5 -1.84%
Corn (P) Dec 12 $7.175, down 12.5 -1.71%
Oats (P) Jul 12 $3.7575, up 1.0 +0.27%
Oats (P) Sep 12 $3.77, down 0.75 -0.20%
Minneapolis (per bushel)
Spring Wheat Jul 12 $9.14, unchanged
Spring Wheat Sep 12 $9.18, down 8.75 cents -0.94%
Spring Wheat Dec 12 $9.1625, down 5.75 -0.62%
Spring Wheat Mar 13 $9.2225, down 4.75 -0.51%
Nearby crude oil futures in New York closed at $83.91, down $2.08. Norway’s government ordered the end of an oil workers strike that had interfered with North Sea production. Also, China’s crude imports were down in June.
The Bank of Canada noon hour rate for the Canadian dollar was 98.01 cents US, up from 97.92 the previous trading day.
The U.S. dollar was $1.0203 Cdn.
In early tallies:
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 122.45 points, or one percent, at 11,512.22.
The Dow Jones industrial average slid 83.17 points, or 0.65 percent, to close at 12,653.12.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 10.99 points, or 0.81 percent, to finish at 1,341.47.
The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 29.44 points, or one percent, to close at 2,902.33.
