Statistics Canada surprised analysts today with its bullish stocks report.
Supplies of most crops were well above 2013 levels but far below pre-report expectations.
Wheat stocks were estimated at 9.8 million tonnes as of July 31.
“This was driven by a 267.8 percent rise in on-farm stocks to 6.1 million tonnes, while commercial stock levels rose 9.9 percent,” said the agency in the report.
Analysts anticipated something in the range from 10.5 to 12.3 million tonnes.
Canola stocks were on the low side as well, coming in at 2.36 million tonnes.
Read Also
Farm cash receipts rise in first half of 2025 on livestock gains
Farm cash receipts in the first half of the year were up 3.3 per cent over the same period last year buoyed by livestock receipts. Overall receipts between January and June totalled $49.6 billion, up $1.6 billion from the same period last year, Statistics Canada reported.
“This gain was mostly the result of a 697.8 percent increase in on-farm stocks to 1.4 million tonnes,” said Statistics Canada.
Pundits expected anything from 2.3 to 3.85 million tonnes.
Barley stocks were pegged at 1.92 million tonnes, which again was at the low end of the trade estimates of 1.7 to 2.25 million tonnes.
Oats carryout was 1.03 million tonnes compared to analyst expectations of one to 1.4 million tonnes.
Pea and lentil stocks were 309,000 tonnes and 169,000 tonnes respectively, which was in the mid-range of what the trade was forecasting.
Flax is one crop that came in at the high end of expectations at 100,000 tonnes.
Statistics Canada also revised last year’s production numbers. The big increase was for lentils, which jumped 16 percent to 2.17 million tonnes, up from the previous estimate of 1.88 million tonnes.
