CROP PRODUCTION SHOW: Lentil prices expected to drop

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Market outlook panelists at Pulse Days in Saskatoon expect a major drop in lentil prices and a slight increase in pea prices this year.Stat Publishing editor Brian Clancey said today there is a 40 and 50 percent chance respectively that red and large green lentil prices will drop below 20 cents per pound, which is about half today’s values.The probability of them cresting the 30 cent mark is only 10 percent for each crop.“I’ll create hope for you but warn you of the risk that prices will be lower,” Clancey told growers attending the meet held as part of Crop Production Week. The reason for Clancey’s price pessimism is his prediction that producers will grow 3.2 million acres of lentils this year, up 38 percent from last year.Martin Chidwick, Canadian senior vice-president of Bissma Pacific Inc., doesn’t see lentil prices dropping below 20 cents, but he expects a price drop. He said he contracted reds at 22 cents and large greens at 23 cents before Christmas.Greg Kostal, president of Kostal Ag Consulting, expects sustained strong demand for yellow peas from India, where the government is promoting the crop as a cheap alternative to chickpeas to help keep food price inflation in check. “I wouldn’t give up on peas,” he said.He foresees a price run-up over the next 12 months to $7 per bushel from today’s $5.75 to $6 per bu. That will either come from increased Indian demand in the next four months or a supply contraction response from Canadian growers in spring.Daniel Holman, grain merchant with North West Terminal Ltd., said he is budgeting $6.50 per bu. for yellow peas.Peter Wilson, manager of global supply chain for JK International Pty Ltd., is forecasting a price of $5.25 to $6.25 per bu.Kostal expects a green pea premium of $1 to $1.50 per bu.

About the author

Sean Pratt has been working at The Western Producer since 1993 after graduating from the University of Regina’s School of Journalism. Sean also has a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the University of Saskatchewan and worked in a bank for a few years before switching careers. Sean primarily writes markets and policy stories about the grain industry and has attended more than 100 conferences over the past three decades. He has received awards from the Canadian Farm Writers Federation, North American Agricultural Journalists and the American Agricultural Editors Association.

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