Crop prices fall as USDA confirms large supplies and oil falls

Issues outside the crop markets had more sway on grain prices today than the USDA report issued this morning.

After rising for six of the last seven trading days, crude oil fell on a report from the International Energy Agency that said oil stocks in the developed countries could continue to build in the short term, pressuring prices lower.

But in the second half of the year prices could start to rise as oil producer spending cuts start to trim production.

Oil’s weakness, worries about Greece’s future in the euro zone and the fighting in Ukraine pressured the American dollar higher.

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U.S. grains: Soybeans, corn fall on harvest pressure

U.S. corn and soybean futures were lower on Monday in choppy trade, pressured by the expanding Midwest harvest of both crops, but uncertainty about quarterly government stocks data due on Tuesday kept a floor under prices, analysts said.

The weaker loonie limited the nearby canola futures decline to about a half percent while soybeans and wheat fell almost one percent.

March corn was down 0.77 percent.

The USDA today held no big surprises and so had little market influence.

Changes were not enough to alter the basic picture of ample existing supplies, record harvests underway in South America, prospects of a big increase in soybean acreage this spring in the U.S. and no signs yet of a really serious weather challenge to crops anywhere in the world.

That said, let’s look at the USDA report.

It trimmed its estimate of American year-end soybean and corn stocks a little more than expected, but slightly raised the estimate for wheat stocks.

The USDA also pegged global year end soybean stocks at a level slightly lower than expected, at 89.26 million versus the average of pre report trader estimates of 90.44 million.

However, USDA’s global ending stocks of corn were about even with expectations and the wheat stocks number was 197.85 million tonnes, about two million tonnes more than expected.

USDA’s South American soybean adjustments were a wash.

It lowered its Brazilian soybean estimate by one million tonnes to 94.5 million and raised Argentina’s forecast one million tonnes to 56 million.

That matched trade expectations.

March oats today fell 4.75 cents to US$2.7475.

Over the past two months oats have weakened relative to corn.

Since Dec. 1 March oat futures are down a little more than 10 percent while corn is down only about a half a percent.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $2.84 to US$50.02 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US79.82 cents, down from US80.33 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2528.

The big international economic issue today was the negotiations in Europe about Greece’s debt problems. The finance minister of the new Greek anti-austerity government will be making a pitch to the euro zone finance ministers in Brussels on Wednesday

U.S stocks ended higher on hopes that negotiations could stabilize Europe, but lower oil prices limited the advance.

In unofficial tallies:

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 138.91 points, or 0.78 percent, to 17,868.12, the S&P 500 gained 21.74 points, or 1.06 percent, to 2,068.48 and the Nasdaq Composite added 61.63 points, or 1.3 percent, to 4,787.65.

The weaker oil price weighed on the TSX.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 11.82 points, or 0.08 percent, at 15,112.52.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2015 457.60 -2.10 -0.46%

Canola May 2015 453.50 -2.60 -0.57%

Canola Jul 2015 449.70 -2.60 -0.57%

Canola Nov 2015 439.80 -2.20 -0.50%

Canola Jan 2016 441.30 -2.20 -0.50%

Milling Wheat Mar 2015 223.00 -2.00

Milling Wheat May 2015 233.00 -2.00

Milling Wheat Jul 2015 236.00 -2.00

Durum Wheat Mar 2015 333.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2015 323.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2015 313.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2015 195.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2015 197.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2015 199.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2015 969 -9.5 -0.97%

Soybeans May 2015 974.25 -10.75 -1.09%

Soybeans Jul 2015 979.75 -11 -1.11%

Soybeans Aug 2015 979.25 -11 -1.11%

Soybeans Sep 2015 964.5 -11 -1.13%

Soybeans Nov 2015 953.75 -10.75 -1.11%

Soybean Meal Mar 2015 326.9 -2.7 -0.82%

Soybean Meal May 2015 319.8 -3.2 -0.99%

Soybean Meal Jul 2015 317 -3.9 -1.22%

Soybean Oil Mar 2015 31.45 -0.56 -1.75%

Soybean Oil May 2015 31.66 -0.56 -1.74%

Soybean Oil Jul 2015 31.85 -0.56 -1.73%

Corn Mar 2015 388 -3.25 -0.83%

Corn May 2015 396.25 -3.25 -0.81%

Corn Jul 2015 403.75 -3 -0.74%

Corn Sep 2015 410 -3 -0.73%

Corn Dec 2015 418.5 -2.75 -0.65%

Oats Mar 2015 275 -4.5 -1.61%

Oats May 2015 278.5 -3 -1.07%

Oats Jul 2015 280.75 -3 -1.06%

Oats Sep 2015 285.5 -3 -1.04%

Oats Dec 2015 286 -1.75 -0.61%

Wheat Mar 2015 521.75 -8 -1.51%

Wheat May 2015 522.25 -8 -1.51%

Wheat Jul 2015 526.25 -7.25 -1.36%

Wheat Sep 2015 534.25 -6.75 -1.25%

Wheat Dec 2015 547.5 -5.75 -1.04%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2015 570 -6 -1.04%

Spring Wheat May 2015 573 -6.75 -1.16%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015 579.5 -6.5 -1.11%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015 587.25 -7 -1.18%

Spring Wheat Dec 2015 596.5 -7.25 -1.20%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015 554 -9.5 -1.69%

Hard Red Wheat May 2015 556.5 -9.75 -1.72%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 561.25 -8.75 -1.54%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 571.75 -9 -1.55%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 586.5 -9 -1.51%

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