Crop markets end on down note after strong week

Reading Time: 4 minutes

Published: April 22, 2016

Canola futures fell Friday, caught in the downdraft of a falling American crop market as traders took profits after a week of rallies and short covering dried up.

Chicago wheat led the market down, falling more than 5.5 percent on the day, the biggest one-day drop in three years.

The wheat market had been rallying on speculative and fund buying without any foundation in fundamental supply and demand.

Minneapolis spring wheat fell more than three percent on Friday.

Corn and soybeans also fell more than three percent.

The decline in canola was less pronounced with support still coming from the smaller than expected canola acreage number in Thursday’s Statistics Canada seeding intentions report.

Most traded July closed at $493.60, down $5.40 or just over one percent.

New crop November closed at $488.60, down $4.40 or 0.9 percent.

For the week, July canola rose $12.40 a tonne or 2.5 percent.

For the week, July soybeans rose 4.2 percent, July corn fell 0.8 percent and July Chicago wheat rose 3.1 percent.

The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said Friday the weekly canola crush jumped almost 19 percent to 180,078 tonnes. That represented 87.2 percent of industry capacity, up from the year’s average of 82.5 percent.

However, the more recent period of canola exports was weak.

The Canadian Grain Commission report for week 37 to April 17 said 124,600 tonnes were exported down from 241,900 the week before.

Wheat exports were also down at 257,900 tonnes, compared to 392,900 tonnes the week before.

Most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are likely to remain without moisture over the next several days.

Southern Alberta and the foothills could see moisture in the first half of next week.

A low pressure system is expected to move across Montana and the Dakotas Sunday and Monday delivering significant accumulations of an inch or more.

U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released after the close of trading showed speculative investors adding to their net soybean long, and trimming their net short in wheat and corn, Reuters reported.

Light weekend showers were predicted in Argentina before conditions turn drier during the next 10 days, allowing the soybean harvest to resume, the Commodity Weather Group said in a note to client. The country had seen torrential rain in the last 10 days

Harvest delays and limited availability for soy shipments at port in Argentina contributed to massive investment-fund buying in futures as volume and open interest in soybeans surged to records this week. But both Argentina and Brazil were expected to still harvest massive crops and world supplies of oilseeds and grains were abundant.

Rains were forecast in the southern U.S. Plains winter wheat belt and farmers have also made steady progress sowing corn in the Midwest, in addition to selling large volumes of existing supplies as prices surged.

“Everybody is very happy with the soil moisture profile (in the Midwest),” said Pira Energy Group analyst Peter Meyer, who drove from Ohio to South Dakota this month surveying conditions.

Meyer said investors already were looking ahead to U.S. Department of Agriculture’s May 10 supply report, when the agency will incorporate outlooks for increased corn sowings with early planting progress data to determine yield forecasts.

“The (USDA) acres are legit, if not a little bit low,” Meyer said

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 55 cents to US$43.73 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US78.90 cents, up from 78.68 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2671.

The TSX’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 7.22 points, or 0.05 percent, at 13,873.98.

Weaker than expected from Microsoft and Alphabet (Google’s parent) quarterly reports weighed on U.S. stocks today.

The Dow Jones industrial average edged up 0.12 percent to end at 18,003.75 points, while the S&P 500 finished flat at 2,091.58. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.8 percent to 4,906.23, reflecting the selloff in tech shares.

For the week, the TSX rose 1.7 percent, the Dow added 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 gained 0.5 percent and the Nasdaq lost 0.6 percent.

The TSX composite rose 1.7 percent over the week and has rallied 20 percent since hitting a nearly 3 ½ year low in January.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2016 489.40 -5.30 -1.07%

Canola Jul 2016 493.60 -5.40 -1.08%

Canola Nov 2016 488.60 -4.40 -0.89%

Canola Jan 2017 493.40 -4.10 -0.82%

Canola Mar 2017 495.10 -3.90 -0.78%

 

Milling Wheat May 2016 238.00 -5.00 -2.06%

Milling Wheat Jul 2016 236.00 -6.00 -2.48%

Milling Wheat Oct 2016 233.00 -4.00 -1.69%

 

Durum Wheat May 2016 297.00 +1.00 +0.34%

Durum Wheat Jul 2016 292.00 +1.00 +0.34%

Durum Wheat Oct 2016 281.00 +1.00 +0.36%

 

Barley May 2016 172.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2016 174.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2016 174.00 unch 0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans May 2016 987 -31.75 -3.12%

Soybeans Jul 2016 996.25 -31.25 -3.04%

Soybeans Aug 2016 998.5 -28.75 -2.80%

Soybeans Sep 2016 989 -22.75 -2.25%

Soybeans Nov 2016 983 -15.5 -1.55%

Soybeans Jan 2017 986.25 -13.75 -1.38%

 

Soybean Meal May 2016 311.7 -13.5 -4.15%

Soybean Meal Jul 2016 314.6 -13.4 -4.09%

Soybean Meal Aug 2016 314.5 -12.4 -3.79%

 

Soybean Oil May 2016 33.99 -0.22 -0.64%

Soybean Oil Jul 2016 34.3 -0.2 -0.58%

Soybean Oil Aug 2016 34.4 -0.2 -0.58%

 

Corn May 2016 371.75 -12.75 -3.32%

Corn Jul 2016 375.5 -14.25 -3.66%

Corn Sep 2016 375.5 -13.75 -3.53%

Corn Dec 2016 381 -12.5 -3.18%

Corn Mar 2017 389 -11.25 -2.81%

 

Oats May 2016 197.5 -3.75 -1.86%

Oats Jul 2016 207.25 -5 -2.36%

Oats Sep 2016 215.5 -5 -2.27%

Oats Dec 2016 223.25 -5.25 -2.30%

Oats Mar 2017 231 -4.75 -2.01%

 

Wheat May 2016 467 -28.75 -5.80%

Wheat Jul 2016 474 -29.5 -5.86%

Wheat Sep 2016 483.5 -28.75 -5.61%

Wheat Dec 2016 500.25 -27.25 -5.17%

Wheat Mar 2017 515.25 -25.75 -4.76%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2016 525.5 -18 -3.31%

Spring Wheat Jul 2016 533.25 -18 -3.27%

Spring Wheat Sep 2016 542.5 -16 -2.86%

Spring Wheat Dec 2016 553 -16.5 -2.90%

Spring Wheat Mar 2017 562.5 -17.25 -2.98%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat May 2016 461.75 -26.75 -5.48%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 473.5 -26.5 -5.30%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 487.75 -26.25 -5.11%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 510 -26 -4.85%

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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