Most canola futures, like other crop futures, fell Thursday, weakened a little by the USDA supply and demand report released in the morning.
It was a back and forth day with futures initially down on the report, then rising on outside news about Greece and Europe but finally closing mostly down.
March canola closed at $534.20 per tonne, unchanged. November closed at $516.70, down $1.
• The figures in the USDA report were within the range of pre-report trade estimates, with downgrades to U.S. corn and wheat ending stocks and reductions in South American production. However, the numbers were generally slightly more than the average of the trade guesses.
Perhaps the most negative number in the report was world wheat ending stocks.
USDA said it expects wheat supplies of 213.1 million tonnes, up from the January outlook of 210.02 million tonnes and above analysts’ expectations for almost 209 million. The main reason was upgrades to the estimate for the crop in Kazakhstan and India.
More details about the USDA report are at the end of this report.
• Argentina has enjoyed rain this week, helping to reduce stress on the soybean crop there.
• The head of Ukraine’s meteorological service agricultural department told Reuters today that winter barley and rapeseed have been killed by cold and wheat is seriously damaged in Ukraine’s eastern and southern regions
“We have written them off,” said Tetyana Adamenko.
Central and northern areas have a protective blanket of snow, but eastern and southern regions have bare soil.
Last week, Adamenko said Ukraine’s harvest of winter grains could fall by 42-58 percent to between 10 million and 14 million tonnes due to poor weather during sowing and wintering.
The country’s ministry of agriculture has asked exporters to focus their activity on corn and barley and hold back on wheat while the state of the new crop is so uncertain.
• News that Greek politicians had agreed to new austerity measures needed to get a European bailout package added support to the market.
• China’s agriculture ministry said today that there was a greater possibility for severe weather this year than there was last year. It said there was a chance for a severe drought in the spring in the northeast, the centre of corn and soybean production.
It also said there is potential for cold weather in the late spring that could hurt the winter wheat crop.
I don’t know if their long term forecasts are any more accurate than Canada’s long term forecasts.
China produced a record harvest last year with production up 4.5 percent, according to its government.
Winnipeg (per tonne)
Western Barley Mar 12 $212.00, unchanged
Western Barley May 12 $216.00, unchanged
Milling Wht Oct 12 $262.90, down 2.10 (0.79%)
Milling Wht Dec 12 $267.40, down 2.10 (0.78%)
Milling Wht Mar 13 $272.40, down 2.10 (0.77%)
Durum Wht Oct 12 $269.00, unchanged
Durum Wht Dec 12 $273.50, unchanged
Durum Wht Mar 13 $278.50, unchanged
Barley Oct 12 $180.00, unchanged
Barley Dec 12 $184.00, unchanged
Barley Mar 13 $185.50, unchanged
Chicago (per bushel)
Soybeans Mar 12 $12.275, down 4.0 cents  (0.32%)
Soybeans May 12 $12.36, down 4.0 (0.32%)
Soybeans Nov 12 $12.385, down 1.5Â (0.12%)
Corn Mar 12 $Â Â Â Â Â Â 6.37, down 5.5 Â (0.86%)
Corn May 12 $Â Â Â Â Â Â 6.415, down 6.5 (1.00%)
Corn Dec 12 $Â Â Â Â Â Â 5.68, down 5.5Â (0.96%)
Oats Mar 12 $Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.18, down 10.0Â (3.05%)
Oats May 12 $Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.095, down 3.5Â (1.12%)
Oats Dec 12 $Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.15, down 2.5Â (0.79%)
Minneapolis (per bushel)
Spring Wht Mar 12 $8.3175, down 9-6 cents (1.16%)
Spring Wht May 12Â $8.2025, down 7.75 (0.94%)
Spring Wht Dec 12 $ $7.855, down 6.25 (0.79%)
Nearby light crude oil in New York gained 30 cents to settle at $98.71 a barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was $1.0059 US, up from $1.0030 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was 99.41 cents Cdn.
The Toronto Stock Exchange composite unofficially finished down 23.08 points, or 0.2 percent, at 12,497.94.
Unofficially, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 8.25 points, or 0.06 percent, at 12,892.20. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 2.07 points, or 0.15 percent, at 1,352.03. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 11.41 points, or 0.39 percent, at 2,927.27.
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s February supply and demand report issued Thursday morning had no surprises and crop futures were little affected.
Crop futures dropped by a few pennies per bushel at the opening of trading but by mid morning prices were higher as the market turned its attention to rising crude oil prices that were sparked after Greek leaders reached a deal on reforms to avoid default, and as Europe’s central bank chief flagged tentative improvement in the euro zone economy.
As expected, the USDA report shaved down the forecast for U.S. corn year-end stocks. The drop, to 801 million bushels from 846 million last month, was within the range of traders’ expectations, but slightly less than the average of the pre-report guesses.
Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2011-12 are lowered, with a 2.8 million tonne reduction in corn stocks and a 600,000 tonne reduction in barley stocks.
At the projected 125.4 million tonnes, global corn ending stocks would be the lowest since 2006-07.
USDA did not crop U.S. soybean end stocks, but at 275 million bu., the number was almost steady with the average of pre-report guesses, which was 273 million bu.
Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 71.2 million tonnes, down 3.6 million from last month.
Wheat ending stocks were cut to 845 million bu. from 870 million in January. The average of trade guesses was 867 million bu.
However, USDA increased world wheat ending stocks by 1.5 percent to a record 213.1 million tonnes from its January estimate based on increases to crops in Kazakhstan and India.
USDA cut its forecast of South American crops.
It lowered its forecast of Argentina’s corn crop to 22 million tonnes, down 4 million tonnes from the January estimate. Soybeans were forecast at 48 million tonnes, down 2.5 million tonnes.
In Brazil, the world’s largest soybean exporter, the crop is expected to total 72 million tonnes, down two million from January’s estimate.
