Crop market refocuses on big U.S. production potential

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Published: August 7, 2014

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Canola drifted slightly lower in a mostly down day on North American crop futures markets on Thursday.

New crop soybeans and soy oil also fell.

Wheat ended its six-day rally and closed lower on profit taking.

Wheat had rallied on concerns about declining quality of crops in Europe and Ukraine where rain fell on mature grain ready for harvest. Also the conflict in eastern Ukraine and the tension with Russia had also provided support, but the conflict has been going on for months now without disruptions to the region’s exports. Russia has started harvesting a larger than expected wheat crop.

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Russia on Wednesday announced it would ban most food imports from Western countries, but that is expected to have little impact on its crop exports. The news did weigh on Chicago livestock markets today.

The overwhelming factor in the crop market remains the expectation of record-smashing corn and soybean crops in the U.S. Midwest. Mostly benign weather in Western Canada also depressed crop markets.

The USDA will release its monthly update on yield prospects and overall supply and demand on Tuesday.

September soybeans were the only contract to rise, supported by very tight old crop stocks.

Argentina is wrapping up its wheat seeding. Rains have delayed planting, but provide excellent moisture for the crop.

India enjoyed above average monsoon rains in the past week, helping to make up for the deficit in the first two months of the rainy season.

The Euronext commodity exchange in Europe introduced lower than expected standards for wheat traded on the exchange.

Europe’s wheat has been downgraded because of rain at harvest. The lax quality standards announced — 220 Hagberg falling numbers with a tolerance down to 170 and a minimum 10.5 percent protein — should allow more wheat to meet the trading standard.

More rain is expected in Germany over the weekend, with about 40 percent of the crop still to be harvested.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

 

Canola Nov 2014       440.90       -1.10       -0.25%

Canola Jan 2015       445.90       -1.00       -0.22%

Canola Mar 2015       447.40       -0.40       -0.09%

Canola May 2015       444.40       unch       0.00%

Canola Jul 2015       441.40       +1.50       +0.34%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 2014       206.00       +8.00      +4.04%

Milling Wheat Dec 2014       211.00       +8.00      +3.94%

Milling Wheat Mar 2015       217.00       +12.00      +5.85%

 

Durum Wheat Oct 2014       250.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2014       256.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2015       257.00       unch       0.00%

 

Barley Oct 2014       136.50       unch       0.00%

Barley Dec 2014       138.50       unch       0.00%

Barley Mar 2015       139.50       unch       0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Aug 2014       1250       +13       +1.05%

Soybeans Sep 2014       1099.25       +2.75       +0.25%

Soybeans Nov 2014       1078       -2       -0.19%

Soybeans Jan 2015       1086.5       -1.75       -0.16%

Soybeans Mar 2015       1094       -1.75       -0.16%

Soybeans May 2015       1101       -1       -0.09%

 

Soybean Meal Aug 2014       390.6       +2.6       +0.67%

Soybean Meal Sep 2014       364.1       +3.1       +0.86%

Soybean Meal Oct 2014       350.7       unch       0.00%

 

Soybean Oil Aug 2014       35.62       -0.17       -0.47%

Soybean Oil Sep 2014       35.7       -0.16       -0.45%

Soybean Oil Oct 2014       35.79       -0.17       -0.47%

 

Corn Sep 2014       359.5       -3.75       -1.03%

Corn Dec 2014       371.25       -3       -0.80%

Corn Mar 2015       384.25       -2.75       -0.71%

Corn May 2015       392.5       -2.5       -0.63%

Corn Jul 2015       399.25       -2.5       -0.62%

 

Oats Sep 2014       359       -7       -1.91%

Oats Dec 2014       336.75       -3.5       -1.03%

Oats Mar 2015       318.75       -6.5       -2.00%

Oats May 2015       307.75       -7       -2.22%

Oats Jul 2015       308.5       -3.25       -1.04%

 

Wheat Sep 2014       561.5       -6.5       -1.14%

Wheat Dec 2014       579       -7.75       -1.32%

Wheat Mar 2015       599       -6.5       -1.07%

Wheat May 2015       611.5       -6.25       -1.01%

Wheat Jul 2015       618.5       -5.5       -0.88%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 2014       634.5       -8.5       -1.32%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014       645.75       -7.75       -1.19%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015       658       -7.75       -1.16%

Spring Wheat May 2015       665.75       -7.75       -1.15%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015       671.75       -8.75       -1.29%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2014       646.25       -10       -1.52%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014       659.75       -9       -1.35%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015       668       -8       -1.18%

Hard Red Wheat May 2015       671.25       -7.5       -1.10%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015       664.25       -5.5       -0.82%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 42 cents at $97.34 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 91.56 cents US, up from 91.52 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0922 Cdn.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to a further strengthening of labour market conditions. However, that upbeat news was overshadowed by the tensions with Russia and uncertainty how trade sanctions will affect company profits and the economy.

In unofficial tallies —

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index fell 83.32 points, or 0.55 percent, at 15,118.77.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 75.46 points, or 0.46 percent, to 16,367.88.

The S&P 500 lost 10.69 points, or 0.56 percent, to 1,909.55.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 20.09 points, or 0.46 percent, to 4,334.97.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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