Crop market refocuses on big U.S. production potential

Canola drifted slightly lower in a mostly down day on North American crop futures markets on Thursday.

New crop soybeans and soy oil also fell.

Wheat ended its six-day rally and closed lower on profit taking.

Wheat had rallied on concerns about declining quality of crops in Europe and Ukraine where rain fell on mature grain ready for harvest. Also the conflict in eastern Ukraine and the tension with Russia had also provided support, but the conflict has been going on for months now without disruptions to the region’s exports. Russia has started harvesting a larger than expected wheat crop.

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Russia on Wednesday announced it would ban most food imports from Western countries, but that is expected to have little impact on its crop exports. The news did weigh on Chicago livestock markets today.

The overwhelming factor in the crop market remains the expectation of record-smashing corn and soybean crops in the U.S. Midwest. Mostly benign weather in Western Canada also depressed crop markets.

The USDA will release its monthly update on yield prospects and overall supply and demand on Tuesday.

September soybeans were the only contract to rise, supported by very tight old crop stocks.

Argentina is wrapping up its wheat seeding. Rains have delayed planting, but provide excellent moisture for the crop.

India enjoyed above average monsoon rains in the past week, helping to make up for the deficit in the first two months of the rainy season.

The Euronext commodity exchange in Europe introduced lower than expected standards for wheat traded on the exchange.

Europe’s wheat has been downgraded because of rain at harvest. The lax quality standards announced — 220 Hagberg falling numbers with a tolerance down to 170 and a minimum 10.5 percent protein — should allow more wheat to meet the trading standard.

More rain is expected in Germany over the weekend, with about 40 percent of the crop still to be harvested.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2014 440.90 -1.10 -0.25%

Canola Jan 2015 445.90 -1.00 -0.22%

Canola Mar 2015 447.40 -0.40 -0.09%

Canola May 2015 444.40 unch 0.00%

Canola Jul 2015 441.40 +1.50 +0.34%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014 206.00 +8.00 +4.04%

Milling Wheat Dec 2014 211.00 +8.00 +3.94%

Milling Wheat Mar 2015 217.00 +12.00 +5.85%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2014 256.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2015 257.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2014 136.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2014 138.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2015 139.50 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Aug 2014 1250 +13 +1.05%

Soybeans Sep 2014 1099.25 +2.75 +0.25%

Soybeans Nov 2014 1078 -2 -0.19%

Soybeans Jan 2015 1086.5 -1.75 -0.16%

Soybeans Mar 2015 1094 -1.75 -0.16%

Soybeans May 2015 1101 -1 -0.09%

Soybean Meal Aug 2014 390.6 +2.6 +0.67%

Soybean Meal Sep 2014 364.1 +3.1 +0.86%

Soybean Meal Oct 2014 350.7 unch 0.00%

Soybean Oil Aug 2014 35.62 -0.17 -0.47%

Soybean Oil Sep 2014 35.7 -0.16 -0.45%

Soybean Oil Oct 2014 35.79 -0.17 -0.47%

Corn Sep 2014 359.5 -3.75 -1.03%

Corn Dec 2014 371.25 -3 -0.80%

Corn Mar 2015 384.25 -2.75 -0.71%

Corn May 2015 392.5 -2.5 -0.63%

Corn Jul 2015 399.25 -2.5 -0.62%

Oats Sep 2014 359 -7 -1.91%

Oats Dec 2014 336.75 -3.5 -1.03%

Oats Mar 2015 318.75 -6.5 -2.00%

Oats May 2015 307.75 -7 -2.22%

Oats Jul 2015 308.5 -3.25 -1.04%

Wheat Sep 2014 561.5 -6.5 -1.14%

Wheat Dec 2014 579 -7.75 -1.32%

Wheat Mar 2015 599 -6.5 -1.07%

Wheat May 2015 611.5 -6.25 -1.01%

Wheat Jul 2015 618.5 -5.5 -0.88%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 2014 634.5 -8.5 -1.32%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014 645.75 -7.75 -1.19%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015 658 -7.75 -1.16%

Spring Wheat May 2015 665.75 -7.75 -1.15%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015 671.75 -8.75 -1.29%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2014 646.25 -10 -1.52%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014 659.75 -9 -1.35%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015 668 -8 -1.18%

Hard Red Wheat May 2015 671.25 -7.5 -1.10%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 664.25 -5.5 -0.82%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 42 cents at $97.34 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 91.56 cents US, up from 91.52 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0922 Cdn.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to a further strengthening of labour market conditions. However, that upbeat news was overshadowed by the tensions with Russia and uncertainty how trade sanctions will affect company profits and the economy.

In unofficial tallies —

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index fell 83.32 points, or 0.55 percent, at 15,118.77.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 75.46 points, or 0.46 percent, to 16,367.88.

The S&P 500 lost 10.69 points, or 0.56 percent, to 1,909.55.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 20.09 points, or 0.46 percent, to 4,334.97.