Monday saw most United States crop markets continue the bounce up, even with the bad news that arrived with Friday’s U.S. Department of Agriculture reports. Canola futures also rose.
While the reports carried bearish news for corn and soybeans — with crop estimates at the high end of analyst expectations or even higher — shorts took advantage of the immediate sell-off to close out their positions.
That triggered technical programs to buy, leading to more shorts buying back their positions, but broker Errol Anderson of Pro Market said no one should expect the rally to last long.
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Feed Grains Weekly: Price likely to keep stepping back
As the harvest in southern Alberta presses on, a broker said that is one of the factors pulling feed prices lower in the region. Darcy Haley, vice-president of Ag Value Brokers in Lethbridge, added that lower cattle numbers in feedlots, plentiful amounts of grass for cattle to graze and a lacklustre export market also weighed on feed prices.
“To me it’s a bounce in a bear market,” said Anderson.
“It’s got no room to run up.”
Soybeans and canola rose strongly Monday, with November soybeans up 27 cents per bushel and November canola up $7.10 per tonne.
“To us, it’s short covering,” said Anderson of why crop markets rebounded so quickly Friday from negative USDA news and continued that strength Monday. A lot of negativity had already been baked into prices.
Vegetable oil markets were strong today on smaller than expected monthly U.S. soy oil supplies, helping canola reach its highest levels this month. Crude oil contracts rose too, adding support to vegetable oil prices.
Corn rose a couple of cents, but wheat contracts, with the exception of spring wheat, fell slightly. Cereal grain markets see a world of ample supplies with little reason to worry.
While the production estimates in Friday’s USDA were large, U.S. crop estimates have a history of growing larger in subsequent reports. Some are wondering if the big crops are already built into prices and a harvest low has been prematurely reached, but others think the recent strength in crop markets is just a breather after the June-July sell-off and that another fall is more likely than a continuing recovery.
Contact ed.white@producer.com
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $1.25 to US$45.74 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US77.39 cents, up from 77.25 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2922.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 29.57 points, or 0.2 percent, at 14,777.02.
All three major U.S. stock indexes closed at record highs.
The Dow Jones industrial average ended up 59.58 points, or 0.32 percent, at 18,636.05, the S&P 500 gained 6.1 points, or 0.28 percent, to 2,190.15 and the Nasdaq Composite added 29.12 points, or 0.56 percent, to 5,262.02.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2016 468.50 +7.10 +1.54%
Canola Jan 2017 475.00 +7.70 +1.65%
Canola Mar 2017 480.60 +7.20 +1.52%
Canola Jul 2017 489.50 +7.50 +1.56%
Milling Wheat Oct 2016 214.00 +2.00 +0.94%
Milling Wheat Dec 2016 217.00 +1.00 +0.46%
Milling Wheat Mar 2017 222.00 +1.00 +0.45%
Durum Wheat Oct 2016 261.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2016 264.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2017 268.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2016 138.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2016 138.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2016 1023.75 +23.50 +2.35%
Soybeans Nov 2016 1009.25 +26.25 +2.67%
Soybeans Jan 2017 1008.50 +25.25 +2.57%
Soybeans Mar 2017 1001.75 +23.25 +2.38%
Soybeans May 2017 999.00 +22.75 +2.33%
Soybeans Jul 2017 999.00 +21.75 +2.23%
Soybean Meal Sep 2016 339.60 +5.80 +1.74%
Soybean Meal Oct 2016 336.90 +5.70 +1.72%
Soybean Meal Dec 2016 334.70 +5.90 +1.79%
Soybean Oil Sep 2016 33.21 +1.21 +3.78%
Soybean Oil Oct 2016 33.35 +1.21 +3.76%
Soybean Oil Dec 2016 33.64 +1.24 +3.83%
Corn Sep 2016 326.50 +3.50 +1.08%
Corn Dec 2016 337.00 +3.50 +1.05%
Corn Mar 2017 347.00 +3.00 +0.87%
Corn May 2017 353.75 +3.25 +0.93%
Corn Jul 2017 360.50 +3.25 +0.91%
Oats Sep 2016 172.00 +5.00 +2.99%
Oats Dec 2016 186.50 +5.00 +2.75%
Oats Mar 2017 196.75 +5.75 +3.01%
Oats May 2017 199.50 unch 0.00%
Wheat Sep 2016 422.00 unch 0.00%
Wheat Dec 2016 438.25 -1.25 -0.28%
Wheat Mar 2017 456.25 -5.00 -1.08%
Wheat May 2017 467.50 -6.50 -1.37%
Wheat Jul 2017 475.25 -7.25 -1.50%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2016 515.25 +3.25 +0.63%
Spring Wheat Dec 2016 517.00 +2.50 +0.49%
Spring Wheat Mar 2017 528.75 +0.75 +0.14%
Spring Wheat May 2017 537.25 +2.25 +0.42%
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 546.50 -0.75 -0.14%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 411.75 -3.50 -0.84%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 437.75 -3.50 -0.79%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 453.50 -4.50 -0.98%
Hard Red Wheat May 2017 463.75 -2.50 -0.54%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 473.00 -2.75 -0.58%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Aug 2016 115.92 -0.48 -0.41%
Live Cattle (P) Oct 2016 113.98 -0.55 -0.48%
Live Cattle (P) Dec 2016 115.13 +0.08 +0.07%
Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2016 148.65 -0.40 -0.27%
Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2016 147.08 -0.42 -0.28%
Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2016 143.88 -0.37 -0.26%
Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2016 62.50 +2.38 +3.96%
Lean Hogs (P) Dec 2016 57.02 +2.02 +3.67%
Lean Hogs (P) Feb 2017 61.30 +2.35 +3.99%
