Crop futures rebound from Tuesday losses

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Published: April 1, 2015

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Wheat came roaring back and canola, soybeans and corn also rose Wednesday on a generally up day in North American crop markets, which were supported by strong crude oil and a weaker U.S. dollar.

A short covering rally caused Chicago wheat to recover most of the ground lost on Tuesday following the USDA planting intentions report.

Nearby Chicago wheat jumped up 3.4 percent and Minneapolis spring wheat climbed 2.6 percent.

Canola followed soybeans higher. Soy was supported by the USDA report that found soybean acreage intentions this spring are about 1.5 million acres less than what the trade expected.

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The USDA report also showed that American farmers intend to seed less canola this year.

Yesterday, corn dragged wheat down, but today wheat’s rally lifted corn. Bargain buying also supported corn.

Corn was depressed Tuesday when USDA’s planting intentions report showed more corn acreage than expected and larger than expected March 1 stocks.

In more detail, speculators who held a large short position in wheat took advantage of a 3.5 percent drop on Tuesday to unwind some of those bearish bets, Reuters said.

Chicago May wheat broke through resistance at its 50-day moving average, spurring technical buying.

Concerns about dryness in the U.S. Plains also were supportive.

Analysts were expecting a U.S. Agriculture Department report on Thursday to show old-crop export sales of wheat in the week ended March 26 in a range from 100,000 to 300,000 tonnes.

They say big crops get bigger and that is the case with Argentina’s 2014-15 soy harvest.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange today increased its estimate to 58.5 million tonnes, up from its previous 57 million-tonne estimate.

The 58.5 million is 2.5 million more than the current USDA forecast.

Seven percent of the crop had been harvested, the exchange reported.

The exchange also increased its corn crop forecast to 23 million tonnes from 22.5 million. USDA’s forecast is 23.5 million.

Just over 11 percent of the corn area had been harvested.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $2.49 to US$50.09 per barrel.

The weekly U.S. oil production report declined for the first time since January and gasoline stocks were less than expected. The number of active drilling rigs in the US dropped to fewest since March 2011.

Oil prices recently have been under pressure on ideas that if talks with Iran over its nuclear program are successful, the restrictions on its oil exports will be lifted, putting an additional one million barrels of crude on the market each day.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US79.29 cents, up from 78.85 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2612.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index unofficially closed up 40.11 points, or 0.27 percent, at 14,942.55.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 78.2 points, or 0.44 percent, to 17,697.92, the S&P 500 lost 8.2 points, or 0.4 percent, to 2,059.69 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 20.66 points, or 0.42 percent, to 4,880.23.

 

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2015         460.30         +5.00         +1.10%

Canola Jul 2015         459.70         +5.30         +1.17%

Canola Nov 2015         451.60         +4.80         +1.07%

Canola Jan 2016         452.60         +4.10         +0.91%

Canola Mar 2016         453.20         +3.70         +0.82%

 

Milling Wheat May 2015         241.00         +6.00         +2.55%

Milling Wheat Jul 2015         238.00         +5.00         +2.15%

Milling Wheat Oct 2015         239.00         +5.00         +2.14%

 

Durum Wheat May 2015         323.00         unch         0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2015         313.00         unch         0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2015         318.00         unch         0.00%

 

Barley May 2015         204.00         +1.00         +0.49%

Barley Jul 2015         204.00         +1.00         +0.49%

Barley Oct 2015         189.00         +1.00         +0.53%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans May 2015         989.75         +16.5         +1.70%

Soybeans Jul 2015         994.5         +16.75         +1.71%

Soybeans Aug 2015         994         +16.75         +1.71%

Soybeans Sep 2015         980.5         +16.25         +1.69%

Soybeans Nov 2015         972.75         +17.5         +1.83%

Soybeans Jan 2016         977.75         +17.75         +1.85%

 

Soybean Meal May 2015         331.9         +5.1         +1.56%

Soybean Meal Jul 2015         330.7         +5.5         +1.69%

Soybean Meal Aug 2015         329.1         +5.4         +1.67%

 

Soybean Oil May 2015         30.69         +0.3         +0.99%

Soybean Oil Jul 2015         30.91         +0.29         +0.95%

Soybean Oil Aug 2015         30.99         +0.29         +0.94%

 

Corn May 2015         381.75         +5.5         +1.46%

Corn Jul 2015         390         +5.75         +1.50%

Corn Sep 2015         397.75         +5.75         +1.47%

Corn Dec 2015         406.75         +6         +1.50%

Corn Mar 2016         416.25         +6.25         +1.52%

 

Oats May 2015         262         -2.75         -1.04%

Oats Jul 2015         263         -3.75         -1.41%

Oats Sep 2015         265.5         -4.75         -1.76%

Oats Dec 2015         268.75         -4.75         -1.74%

Oats Mar 2016         277         -4.25         -1.51%

 

Wheat May 2015         528.5         +16.75         +3.27%

Wheat Jul 2015         529.5         +15.5         +3.02%

Wheat Sep 2015         538         +15.5         +2.97%

Wheat Dec 2015         552         +14.75         +2.75%

Wheat Mar 2016         565.5         +14.5         +2.63%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2015         590.5         +14.5         +2.52%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015         594.5         +14         +2.41%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015         601.75         +13.5         +2.29%

Spring Wheat Dec 2015         612.5         +13.75         +2.30%

Spring Wheat Mar 2016         624.25         +14.25         +2.34%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat May 2015         572         +12.75         +2.28%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015         575.75         +12         +2.13%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015         586.25         +13.25         +2.31%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015         600.5         +14         +2.39%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016         610.75         +11.75         +1.96%

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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