Crop futures little changed Tuesday, USDA report tomorrow

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Published: July 11, 2017

Most crop markets closed little changed on Tuesday although canola edged lower.
Many crop futures were lower through most of the morning on profit taking following strong gains on Monday.
But late in trade the trend turned up again allowing a mostly neutral close with changes only a few pennies per bushel up or down.
The trade was positioning ahead of Wednesday’s USDA monthly crop supply and demand report.
The USDA normally does not significantly alter its corn and soybean production forecasts in the July report, but the trade expects reductions in U.S. spring wheat forecast and in world wheat production due the problems in North America, a dry summer in Ukraine and drought in parts of Australia. Indeed there is talk in Australia that current official forecasts of about 25 million tonnes are far too high and 20 million or less is a possibility if the weather remains dry.

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US CROP CONDITION
The USDA’s weekly crop condition report Monday was bullish for corn with the good-to-excellent rating dropping three percentage points when the trade expected a one point drop.
Spring wheat and soybean conditions also declined.
While the Plains are expected to remain hot and dry, the rain outlook for the Midwest improved slightly, which should help as corn goes through its reproductive stage.
RAIN IN CANADA
Thunderstorms Monday left a trail of significant moisture from around Saskatoon east into Manitoba and including the Interlake region. Other parts of Manitoba and southern Alberta got small accumulations, but most of central and southern Saskatchewan got nothing.
After Monday’s scorching temperatures on the southern Prairies, temperatures are much cooler today and as of mid afternoon there were only light showers popping.
Wednesday should also have moderate temperatures before a return to the high 20s and low 30s on Thursday across most of the Prairies.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Currency markets awaited Wednesday’s Bank of Canada meeting to see if it raises interest rates, as many in the market expect.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US77.35 cents, down from 77.57 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2928.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 64 cents US$45.04 per barrel.
Stock markets were fairly quiet.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 43.86 points, or 0.29 percent, at 15,149.14.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.55 point to 21,409.07, the S&P 500 lost 1.9 points, or 0.08 percent, to 2,425.53 and the Nasdaq Composite added 16.91 points, or 0.27 percent, to 6,193.31.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2017 527.20 -3.20 -0.60%
Canola Jan 2018 531.00 -2.60 -0.49%

Canola Mar 2018 534.00 -2.90 -0.54%
Canola May 2018 533.50 -3.60 -0.67%
Canola Jul 2018 533.70 -4.10 -0.76%

Milling Wheat Oct 2017 309.00 +4.00 +1.31%
Milling Wheat Dec 2017 316.00 +3.00 +0.96%
Milling Wheat Mar 2018 319.00 +3.00 +0.95%

Durum Wheat Oct 2017 274.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2017 275.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2018 277.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2018 140.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2017 1025.25 +5.00 +0.49%
Soybeans Aug 2017 1029.25 +3.25 +0.32%
Soybeans Sep 2017 1034.25 +2.75 +0.27%
Soybeans Nov 2017 1043.25 +2.50 +0.24%
Soybeans Jan 2018 1050.75 +2.50 +0.24%
Soybeans Mar 2018 1048.25 +3.75 +0.36%

Soybean Meal Jul 2017 336.80 +0.40 +0.12%
Soybean Meal Aug 2017 338.70 -0.10 -0.03%
Soybean Meal Sep 2017 340.80 +0.20 +0.06%

Soybean Oil Jul 2017 33.73 +0.11 +0.33%
Soybean Oil Aug 2017 33.81 +0.07 +0.21%
Soybean Oil Sep 2017 33.94 +0.09 +0.27%

Corn Jul 2017 392.25 +0.50 +0.13%
Corn Sep 2017 401.75 -1.00 -0.25%
Corn Dec 2017 414.25 -1.25 -0.30%
Corn Mar 2018 423.25 -1.25 -0.29%
Corn May 2018 428.00 -0.75 -0.17%

Oats Jul 2017 308.25 +2.25 +0.74%
Oats Sep 2017 292.00 +1.75 +0.60%
Oats Dec 2017 292.50 +2.25 +0.78%
Oats Mar 2018 289.00 -2.25 -0.77%
Oats May 2018 290.00 unch 0.00%

Wheat Jul 2017 535.50 +5.00 +0.94%
Wheat Sep 2017 553.00 +1.25 +0.23%
Wheat Dec 2017 576.50 +0.50 +0.09%
Wheat Mar 2018 593.75 +0.75 +0.13%
Wheat May 2018 602.50 +0.50 +0.08%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 796.75 +8.50 +1.08%
Spring Wheat Sep 2017 796.75 -0.75 -0.09%
Spring Wheat Dec 2017 792.25 +1.75 +0.22%
Spring Wheat Mar 2018 777.75 +2.00 +0.26%
Spring Wheat May 2018 762.50 +1.50 +0.20%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 541.00 unch 0.00%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 557.50 -1.75 -0.31%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 583.75 -2.00 -0.34%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018 597.75 +1.00 +0.17%
Hard Red Wheat May 2018 606.75 +1.50 +0.25%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017 114.88 +1.43 +1.26%
Live Cattle (P) Oct 2017 114.82 +1.78 +1.57%
Live Cattle (P) Dec 2017 115.33 +1.62 +1.42%

Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2017 147.25 +3.20 +2.22%
Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2017 147.17 +3.17 +2.20%
Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2017 145.50 +2.67 +1.87%

Lean Hogs (P) Jul 2017 92.15 +0.78 +0.85%
Lean Hogs (P) Aug 2017 82.25 +0.35 +0.43%
Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2017 69.18 -0.70 -1.00%

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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