November canola futures held up reasonably well on Tuesday, dipping only about 0.57 percent while soybeans fell about two percent.
The Canadian dollar has been losing ground against the U.S. buck as crude oil falls and that has helped give canola a bit of stability.
Soybeans are down 3.7 percent so far this week, weighed down by the USDA report Monday that increased the expected soybean average yield to 50.6 bushels per acre, up from 48.9 bu. in the August forecast and last year’s 48 bu. per acre.
The U.S. soybean crop is now forecast at 4.2 billion bushels, up from 4.06 billion in August and 3.93 billion last year.
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Canola stocks came in a two million tonnes, whereas the trade generally expected a million tonnes or less.
With year end stocks so large it was clear that the estimate of the 2015 crop was too small so Statistics Canada has now revised up its canola production number to 18.38 million tonnes from 17.23 million previously.
It also has the trade wondering if the current forecast for the 2016 crop at 17.02 million tonnes is also too small.
It was a down day generally in the crop commodity markets with wheat, corn, soybean and soy products and most oats contracts all down on ideas that the U.S. harvest will be big and on a stronger U.S. dollar.
Crude oil fell almost three percent after the International Energy Agency cut its demand forecast and indicated that production would exceed demand well into next year leading to inventory buildup.
It cut its oil demand growth forecast for 2017 by 200,000 barrels to a growth of 1.2 million barrels a day.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell $1.39 to US$44.90 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.95 cents, down from 76.47 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3167.
Stock markets were down on falling crude. Also there is uncertainty about what the U.S. Federal Reserve will do on interest rates. Last week some Fed officials sounded aggressive about the need for a rate increase but other Fed officials spoke in a softer tone on Monday raising doubts about a quick increase.
The Toronto Stock Exchange composite fell 248.04 points or 1.7 percent to 14,349.10.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 258.32 points, or 1.41 percent, to 18,066.75, the S&P 500 lost 32.02 points, or 1.48 percent, to 2,127.02 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 56.63 points, or 1.09 percent, to 5,155.26.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 16 456.50 -2.60 -0.57%
Canola Jan 17 462.50 -2.80 -0.60%
Canola Mar 17 467.00 -3.20 -0.68%
Canola May 17 471.30 -3.90 -0.82%
Canola Jul 17 473.90 -4.70 -0.98%
Milling Wheat Oct 16 212.00 unch unch
Milling Wheat Dec 16 215.00 +1.00 +0.47%
Milling Wheat Mar 17 219.00 unch unch
Durum Wheat Oct 16 265.00 unch unch
Durum Wheat Dec 16 267.00 unch unch
Durum Wheat Mar 17 270.00 unch unch
Barley Oct 16 138.00 unch unch
Barley Dec 16 138.00 unch unch
Barley Mar 17 140.00 unch inch
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2016 968.25 -16.25 -1.65%
Soybeans Nov 2016 944.00 -20.25 -2.10%
Soybeans Jan 2017 949.00 -19.75 -2.04%
Soybeans Mar 2017 952.75 -18.75 -1.93%
Soybeans Jul 2017 964.25 -16.25 -1.66%
Soybean Meal Sep 2016 310.40 -7.90 -2.48%
Soybean Meal Oct 2016 307.30 -6.20 -1.98%
Soybean Meal Dec 2016 306.10 -5.80 -1.86%
Soybean Oil Sep 2016 31.55 -0.76 -2.35%
Soybean Oil Oct 2016 31.60 -0.78 -2.41%
Soybean Oil Dec 2016 31.85 -0.79 -2.42%
Corn Sep 2016 319.25 -10.00 -3.04%
Corn Dec 2016 330.00 -9.50 -2.80%
Corn Mar 2017 340.75 -9.25 -2.64%
Corn May 2017 348.00 -9.50 -2.66%
Corn Jul 2017 354.50 -9.50 -2.61%
Oats Sep 2016 163.75 +1.75 +1.08%
Oats Dec 2016 173.75 -1.00 -0.57%
Oats Mar 2017 186.75 -1.00 -0.53%
Oats May 2017 193.00 -1.00 -0.52%
Oats Jul 2017 201.00 -0.50 -0.25%
Wheat Sep 2016 374.75 -8.50 -2.22%
Wheat Dec 2016 401.00 -8.25 -2.02%
Wheat Mar 2017 421.75 -8.25 -1.92%
Wheat May 2017 436.50 -8.25 -1.85%
Wheat Jul 2017 446.50 -8.50 -1.87%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2016 491.75 -8.00 -1.60%
Spring Wheat Dec 2016 493.25 -5.75 -1.15%
Spring Wheat Mar 2017 504.00 -5.75 -1.13%
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 523.00 -5.50 -1.04%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 392.25 -7.50 -1.88%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 415.75 -8.00 -1.89%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 431.75 -7.75 -1.76%
Hard Red Wheat May 2017 442.25 -7.75 -1.72%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 452.25 -7.50 -1.63%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Oct 2016 104.68 -1.02 -0.96%
Live Cattle (P) Dec 2016 105.82 -0.91 -0.85%
Live Cattle (P) Feb 2017 105.98 -0.82 -0.77%
Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2016 133.38 -1.55 -1.15%
Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2016 130.55 -1.75 -1.32%
Feeder Cattle (P) Nov 2016 128.50 -1.38 -1.06%
Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2016 56.75 -2.68 -4.51%
Lean Hogs (P) Dec 2016 50.55 -2.48 -4.68%
Lean Hogs (P) Feb 2017 54.80 -2.98 -5.16%
