U.S. stock markets surged in relief Wednesday, but that didn’t do anything for crop futures.
They almost all fell, with weakness general.
“Canola’s in trouble,” said Errol Anderson of Pro Market Wire.
“Canola is still too high.”
The world stock market tumbles were mostly arrested Tuesday and Wednesday, with U.S. markets rebounding on beliefs that the U.S. government might do some more monk eying in the debt and currency markets, or at least be less likely to raise rates next month. U.S. durable goods orders also rose, suggesting its recovery has been continuing.
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The relief did not do much for crop commodities, which fell. For canola, the biggest problem is the declining value of soybean oil, which sets world vegetable oil prices.
With that sagging as big crops keep getting produced overseas and U.S. supplies are ample, canola’s ability to force premium prices due to tight crops weakens.
“Our sense is that we’ll retrace the old steps (we passed) going up,” said Anderson.
“They’ll be the ones going down.”
That means the market will probably get back to the $465 per tonne level reached recently, probably hit $455 and maybe fall to $440, Anderson said.
In agriculture company news, Monsanto abandoned its takeover bid for Syngenta, after the latter company rejected the former’s nearly US$47 billion offer, which had been beefed up from $45 billion.
The lack of commodities’ ability or willingness to follow the equity markets Wednesday was an interesting element of the volatile trade. Not all markets are trending together.
Currency volatility continues to be general.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 71 cents to US$38.60 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.17 cents, down from 75.21 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3303.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2015 469.70 -7.70 -1.61%
Canola Jan 2016 474.20 -6.50 -1.35%
Canola Mar 2016 476.50 -5.70 -1.18%
Canola May 2016 477.00 -5.10 -1.06%
Canola Jul 2016 475.80 -4.40 -0.92%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015 226.00 +3.00 +1.35%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015 226.00 +3.00 +1.35%
Milling Wheat Mar 2016 230.00 +3.00 +1.32%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015 335.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015 335.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2016 340.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2015 191.90 -8.70 -4.34%
Barley Dec 2015 191.90 -8.70 -4.34%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2015 877.75 -16.5 -1.85%
Soybeans Nov 2015 865 -12.75 -1.45%
Soybeans Jan 2016 868.5 -12.5 -1.42%
Soybeans Mar 2016 869.25 -12 -1.36%
Soybeans May 2016 872.5 -12 -1.36%
Soybeans Jul 2016 875.75 -12.5 -1.41%
Soybean Meal Sep 2015 324.4 -3.2 -0.98%
Soybean Meal Oct 2015 317.1 -3.7 -1.15%
Soybean Meal Dec 2015 313.9 -3.2 -1.01%
Soybean Oil Sep 2015 26.12 -0.7 -2.61%
Soybean Oil Oct 2015 26.2 -0.71 -2.64%
Soybean Oil Dec 2015 26.44 -0.71 -2.62%
Corn Sep 2015 361.75 -3.75 -1.03%
Corn Dec 2015 373.25 -3.75 -0.99%
Corn Mar 2016 384.25 -3.75 -0.97%
Corn May 2016 390.75 -3.5 -0.89%
Corn Jul 2016 395 -3.25 -0.82%
Oats Sep 2015 210.75 -2 -0.94%
Oats Dec 2015 215.75 -3.5 -1.60%
Oats Mar 2016 218.75 -6.25 -2.78%
Oats May 2016 226.75 -6.25 -2.68%
Oats Jul 2016 227.75 -6.25 -2.67%
Wheat Sep 2015 489.75 -5.25 -1.06%
Wheat Dec 2015 494.25 -5.25 -1.05%
Wheat Mar 2016 501 -4.75 -0.94%
Wheat Jul 2016 508 -3.5 -0.68%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 496.25 -0.5 -0.10%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 514 unch 0.00%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 531.25 +0.5 +0.09%
Spring Wheat May 2016 542.5 +1 +0.18%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016 553 +1.25 +0.23%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 466.5 +0.5 +0.11%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 489.25 +0.25 +0.05%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 503.75 +0.5 +0.10%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016 513.75 +0.75 +0.15%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 523.5 +0.5 +0.10%
