Crop futures drift lower

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Published: January 27, 2015

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Canola futures closed a little lower, pressured by commercial hedging and slower fund buying.

Generally crop futures were slightly lower on a day when there was little new news about supply and demand.

Canola had been higher midmorning as speculators bought canola and sold soybeans but then fund buying trailed off.

Soybeans fell as exporters cancelled another 120,000 tonnes of old crop soybeans to China.

Basis for nearby delivery of canola is getting wider, indicating exporters and domestic crushers have their immediate needs met. Basis improves for deliveries in April-July period.

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The market so far is reacting little to news stories about continued dryness in parts of Brazil, likely because production from South America is still expected to be record large, even with some trimming.

Oil World, the oilseed analysis publication, reported that rain is urgently needed in the state of Goias, the fourth largest producer. It is also dry in parts of Mato Grosso do Sul the fifth largest producer and in the eastern states of Minas Gerais and Bahia.

However, the main growing states are in the western and southern parts of the country — Mato Grosso, Parana and Rio Grande Do Sul — and moisture is better there.

Some yield potential in Goias has already been lost.

Late last week, Brazilian consulting firm Agroconsult noted a dry January as it trimmed its soy crop forecast by 900,000 tonnes to 93.9 million tonnes, which is still a record.

The USDA in early January increased its forecast of Brazil’s crop by 1.5 million tonnes to 95.5 million. Last year, production was 86.7 million.

Brazil’s neighbour Paraguay is now expected to produce 8.8 million tonnes of soybeans, said Oil World. The previous forecast was 9.2 million tonnes. Last year it produced 9.0 million.

Corn futures also dipped on ample supplies.

Wheat futures were also a little lower on large international supplies and the strong U.S. dollar, which makes American wheat more expensive for foreign buyers.

The Ukrainian government and traders have agreed that no more than 1.2 million tonnes of Ukrainian milling wheat will be exported between Jan. 1 and June 30, agriculture minister Oleksiy Pavlenko said on Tuesday.

They also agreed exports of feed wheat would not exceed 3.4 million tonnes in January-June, while shipments of corn could be no more than 13.2 million tonnes in the same period.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $1.08 to US$46.23 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US80.62 cents, up from US80.57 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2404.

Weaker than expected quarterly profit reports by several major corporations, incuding Microsoft and Caterpillar weighed down stock markets.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 287.45 points, or 1.63 percent, to 17,391.25, the lost 27.32 points, or 1.33 percent, to 2,029.77 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 90.27 points, or 1.89 percent, to 4,681.50.

The slightly higher crude oil price and higher gold helped lift the Toronto Stock Exchange composite by 36.5 points or 0.24 percent to close at 14,833.88.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2015       459.60       -1.10       -0.24%

Canola May 2015       455.10       -0.80       -0.18%

Canola Jul 2015       448.90       -0.20       -0.04%

Canola Nov 2015       435.10       -0.20       -0.05%

Canola Jan 2016       436.80       -0.50       -0.11%

 

Milling Wheat Mar 2015       217.00       -1.00       -0.46%

Milling Wheat May 2015       220.00       -1.00       -0.45%

Milling Wheat Jul 2015       223.00       -1.00       -0.45%

 

Durum Wheat Mar 2015       363.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2015       353.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2015       343.00       unch       0.00%

 

Barley Mar 2015       195.00       unch       0.00%

Barley May 2015       197.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Jul 2015       199.00       unch       0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2015       973.75       -9.75       -0.99%

Soybeans May 2015       981.25       -9       -0.91%

Soybeans Jul 2015       987       -9       -0.90%

Soybeans Aug 2015       987.25       -9       -0.90%

Soybeans Sep 2015       973.5       -9.25       -0.94%

Soybeans Nov 2015       962.75       -9       -0.93%

 

Soybean Meal Mar 2015       336.6       -2.3       -0.68%

Soybean Meal May 2015       328.8       -2.8       -0.84%

Soybean Meal Jul 2015       326.5       -3.3       -1.00%

 

Soybean Oil Mar 2015       31.17       +0.09       +0.29%

Soybean Oil May 2015       31.37       +0.09       +0.29%

Soybean Oil Jul 2015       31.57       +0.09       +0.29%

 

Corn Mar 2015       381.25       -2.75       -0.72%

Corn May 2015       389.75       -2.75       -0.70%

Corn Jul 2015       397       -3       -0.75%

Corn Sep 2015       403.5       -3       -0.74%

Corn Dec 2015       411.25       -3       -0.72%

 

Oats Mar 2015       289.25       -1.5       -0.52%

Oats May 2015       292.75       -1.25       -0.43%

Oats Jul 2015       297.25       -1.25       -0.42%

Oats Sep 2015       300       -1       -0.33%

Oats Dec 2015       297       +0.75       +0.25%

 

Wheat Mar 2015       519       -1.5       -0.29%

Wheat May 2015       523       -1.25       -0.24%

Wheat Jul 2015       528.75       -0.5       -0.09%

Wheat Sep 2015       537.25       unch       0.00%

Wheat Dec 2015       549       -0.25       -0.05%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2015       566.5       -2.5       -0.44%

Spring Wheat May 2015       573.75       -2.25       -0.39%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015       582.75       -2       -0.34%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015       590.75       -2.5       -0.42%

Spring Wheat Dec 2015       600.5       -2.5       -0.41%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015       550.25       -4.25       -0.77%

Hard Red Wheat May 2015       555.75       -4.25       -0.76%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015       560       -4       -0.71%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015       572.25       -3.75       -0.65%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015       586.75       -3.75       -0.64%

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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