Markets again focused on crop-favourable weather in the Midwest on Thursday, and crop futures sagged lower.
November canola fell $3.40 or 0.68 percent to $497.60 per tonne.
November soybeans fell harder, down 1.74 percent and soybean oil was down 2.25 percent.
WEATHER
Parts of central Alberta are expected to get rain on Friday which should help maintain fairly good crop conditions there and help fill heads.
The system is expected to continue southeast into Saskatchewan on Saturday providing moisture to the southwest corner of the province.
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Over the next five days much of the Midwest is expected to get rain. Dry areas of Illinois will particularly welcome the 1 to 1.5 inches forecast.
The rain and cooler weather is expected to help soybeans as they set their pods and also corn as it fills kernels.
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Heavy rain accumulation in Kansas and Oklahoma will be welcome after a lot of hot, dry weather in the last month. The moisture will help to replenish soil moisture for seeding of the next winter wheat crop.
PRIVATE FORECASTS
Markets are adjusting for the next USDA monthly supply demand report Aug. 10. It will be the first this year to forecast corn yield based on actual field data.
Private analytics firm Informa Economics on Thursday pegged the U.S. corn yield at 165.9 bushels per acre, trade sources said, below the USDA’s trend-based forecast of 170.7 bu. per acre.
Yesterday INTL FCStone posted its forecast for a yield of 162.8 bu. per acre, producing a crop of 13.59 billion bu.
Informa’s soybean yield estimate was 47.3 bu. per acre, trade sources said, and INTL FCStone put the soy yield at 47.7, close to the USDA’s trend-based forecast of 48.0.
CHINA TRADE
A Bloomberg story said that in the rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China, the latter is preparing measures to push back if needed. The story said China has singled out the huge trade in soybeans as “a lever to exert influence should the U.S. take action.”
ARGENTINA RAIN
Heavy rain in the past month has reduced the amount of wheat that farmers in Argentina were able to seed.The U.S. agricultural attache in Argentina forecast wheat seeded area at 5.2 million hectares, shy of the official USDA forecast of 5.6 million. That is still 300,000 more than last year, but not as much as was expected after the government there lifted restrictions that had limited wheat sowing in recent years.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 56 cents at US$49.03 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US79.21 cents, down from 79.58 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2625.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended down 73.67 points, or 0.48 percent, at 15,191.96.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 9.8 points, or 0.04 percent, to 22,026.04, a new record.
The S&P 500 had lost 5.43 points, or 0.22 percent, to 2,472.14 and the Nasdaq Composite had dropped 22.30 points, or 0.35 percent, to 6,340.34.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 17 497.60s -3.40 -0.68%
Canola Jan 18 502.90s -3.50 -0.69%
Canola Mar 18 506.70s -3.60 -0.71%
Canola May 18 509.50s -3.70 -0.72%
Canola Jul 18 511.90s -3.60 -0.70%
Milling Wheat Oct 17 274.00s -4.00 -1.44%
Milling Wheat Dec 17 277.00s -4.00 -1.42%
Milling Wheat Mar 18 283.00s -4.00 -1.39%
Durum Wheat Oct 17 309.00s -1.00 -0.32%
Durum Wheat Dec 17 310.00s -1.00 -0.32%
Durum Wheat Mar 18 291.00s -2.00 -0.68%
Barley Oct 17 145.00s unch unch
Barley Dec 17 141.00s unch unch
Barley Mar 18 141.00s unch unch
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.
Chicago
Soybeans Aug 17 950-4s -16-0 -1.66%
Soybeans Sep 17 954-0s -16-6 -1.73%
Soybeans Nov 17 960-4s -17-0 -1.74%
Soybeans Jan 18 969-6s -16-6 -1.70%
Soybeans Mar 18 977-6s -15-6 -1.59%
Soybean Meal Aug 17 306.3s -2.7 -0.87%
Soybean Meal Sep 17 308.3s -2.9 -0.93%
Soybean Meal Oct 17 310.0s -2.8 -0.90%
Soybean Oil Aug 17 33.38s -0.77 -2.25%
Soybean Oil Sep 17 33.48s -0.78 -2.28%
Soybean Oil Oct 17 33.60s -0.78 -2.27%
Corn Sep 17 363-4s -1-4 -0.41%
Corn Dec 17 377-6s -1-2 -0.33%
Corn Mar 18 389-6s -1-2 -0.32%
Corn May 18 395-2s -1-2 -0.32%
Corn Jul 18 400-6s -1-2 -0.31%
Oats Sep 17 285-2s -4-2 -1.47%
Oats Dec 17 285-6s -3-6 -1.30%
Oats Mar 18 286-6s -2-2 -0.78%
Oats May 18 285-6s -2-2 -0.78%
Oats Jul 18 284-4s -2-2 -0.78%
Wheat Sep 17 457-6s -3-0 -0.65%
Wheat Dec 17 485-0s -2-6 -0.56%
Wheat Mar 18 506-4s -2-6 -0.54%
Wheat May 18 520-4s -2-4 -0.48%
Wheat Jul 18 529-4s -2-4 -0.47%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 17 713-2s -9-0 -1.25%
Spring Wheat Dec 17 726-2s -9-0 -1.22%
Spring Wheat Mar 18 728-6s -5-6 -0.78%
Spring Wheat May 18 719-0s -5-0 -0.69%
Spring Wheat Jul 18 708-4s -5-2 -0.74%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 17 459-6s -4-6 -1.02%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 17 487-4s -4-4 -0.91%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 18 505-4s -4-2 -0.83%
Hard Red Wheat May 18 519-2s -4-4 -0.86%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 18 534-2s -4-6 -0.88%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade
Live Cattle Aug 17 115.225s +0.700 +0.61%
Live Cattle Oct 17 114.825s +0.150 +0.13%
Live Cattle Dec 17 115.900s +0.025 +0.02%
Feeder Cattle Aug 17 150.650s +0.400 +0.27%
Feeder Cattle Sep 17 151.200s +0.600 +0.40%
Feeder Cattle Oct 17 150.375s +0.275 +0.18%
Lean Hogs Aug 17 81.975s +0.025 +0.03%
Lean Hogs Oct 17 65.500s -0.725 -1.09%
Lean Hogs Dec 17 60.525s -0.100 -0.16%
