Crop futures close much higher after bullish USDA report

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Published: June 30, 2017

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Bullish USDA acreage and stocks reports for spring wheat and soybeans Friday caused crop futures markets to rally higher.
Spring wheat acreage was lower than the trade expected and soybean acreage, although a record, was also less than expected. Corn acres were higher than expected.
A heatwave expected in the U.S. Northern Plains also supported spring wheat. It is also expected to be hot in the Canadian Prairies.
Wheat climbed after the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its estimate of U.S. spring wheat plantings to 10.9 million acres, down from its March forecast of 11.3 million and below a range of trade expectations.

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The government projected harvested acres at 10.5 million, but some analysts expected that figure would fall, given drought conditions in the northern Plains spring wheat belt.
“The big thing is spring wheat acres coming in well below expectations,” said Brian Hoops, analyst at Midwest Marketing Solutions.
“When we get to harvested acres in July, spring wheat acres will be sharply lower, with more abandonment. That’s the real bullish stand-out news,” Hoops said.
Canadian farmers have also planted slightly less wheat than expected, according to a Statistics Canada report issued on Thursday.

Corn advanced but its rise was capped by larger-than-expected U.S. plantings and quarterly stocks figures.
“The (corn) stocks number implies that the USDA may be about 100 million bushels too high on their corn feeding. And then you gain 900,000 acres from the prospective plantings report, so you’ve added supply here,” said Dan Cekander of DC Analysis.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL STORY ON THE USDA REPORTS
The rally in the soy complex helped canola futures also clime, but cash values were held back by a widening basis.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $1.21  US$46.14 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US77.12 cents, up from 76.92 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3297.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2017   551.30  +21.30  +4.02%
Canola Nov 2017   498.00  +13.60  +2.81%
Canola Jan 2018  503.60  +13.20  +2.69%
Canola Mar 2018   509.20  +13.40  +2.70%
Canola May 2018   512.70  +13.20  +2.64%

Milling Wheat Jul 2017  309.00  +3.00  +0.98%
Milling Wheat Oct 2017  303.00  +7.00  +2.36%
Milling Wheat Dec 2017  309.00  +7.00  +2.32%

Durum Wheat Jul 2017  277.00  -1.00  -0.36%
Durum Wheat Oct 2017  270.00  unch  0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2017  274.00  unch  0.00%

Barley Jul 2017  138.00  unch  0.00%
Barley Oct 2017  140.00  unch  0.00%
Barley Dec 2017  140.00  unch  0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2017  942.25  +26.75  +2.92%
Soybeans Aug 2017  947.00  +26.25  +2.85%
Soybeans Sep 2017  950.50  +27.25  +2.95%
Soybeans Nov 2017  954.75  +30.00  +3.24%
Soybeans Jan 2018  962.50  +29.75  +3.19%
Soybeans Mar 2018  966.75  +27.50  +2.93%

Soybean Meal Jul 2017  304.40  +10.00  +3.40%
Soybean Meal Aug 2017  306.20  +9.80  +3.31%
Soybean Meal Sep 2017  307.90  +9.80  +3.29%

Soybean Oil Jul 2017  32.93  +0.51  +1.57%
Soybean Oil Aug 2017  33.04  +0.52  +1.60%
Soybean Oil Sep 2017  33.16  +0.53  +1.62%

Corn Jul 2017  370.50  +10.75  +2.99%
Corn Sep 2017  381.00  +11.50  +3.11%
Corn Dec 2017  392.00  +12.00  +3.16%
Corn Mar 2018  401.25  +11.75  +3.02%
Corn May 2018  407.00  +11.25  +2.84%

Oats Jul 2017  290.00  +24.50  +9.23%
Oats Sep 2017  284.75  +20.00  +7.55%
Oats Dec 2017  282.75  +20.00  +7.61%
Oats Mar 2018  284.00  +18.75  +7.07%
Oats May 2018  285.00  +20.00  +7.55%

Wheat Jul 2017  511.00  +30.75  +6.40%
Wheat Sep 2017  526.00  +30.00  +6.05%
Wheat Dec 2017  545.00  +29.50  +5.72%
Wheat Mar 2018  558.75  +29.75  +5.62%
Wheat May 2018  567.25  +28.75  +5.34%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2017  767.75  +26.50  +3.58%
Spring Wheat Sep 2017  771.75  +32.25  +4.36%
Spring Wheat Dec 2017  759.75  +28.50  +3.90%
Spring Wheat Mar 2018  745.75  +24.50  +3.40%

Spring Wheat May 2018  733.50  +21.75  +3.06%

Kansas
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017  511.25  +30.75  +6.40%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017  529.50  +30.00  +6.01%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017  554.25  +29.50  +5.62%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018  567.25  +28.50  +5.29%
Hard Red Wheat May 2018  575.25  +27.50  +5.02%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017  119.10  -1.10  -0.92%
Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017  116.30  -0.20  -0.17%
Live Cattle (P) Oct 2017  115.20  +0.23  +0.20%

Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2017  147.92  +0.74  +0.50%
Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2017  148.02  +0.82  +0.56%
Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2017  146.92  +0.84  +0.58%

Lean Hogs (P) Jul 2017  90.62  +1.15  +1.29%
Lean Hogs (P) Aug 2017  83.75  +3.00  +3.72%
Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2017  70.45  +1.80  +2.62%

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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