Corn up two percent, but oilseeds lag behind

Corn and wheat posted solid gains Thursday with traders concerned about the cold weather washing across the U.S.

The oilseed complex had mixed results and questions are arising about whether its rally has run out of steam.

Today nearby canola contracts closed lower with pressure from commercial hedges after the recent run up in values triggered new farmer selling. However, farther out months and 2015 canola edged higher.

The inverse between January and March which was a bullish signal of strong demand has ended and March now has a $4.20 a tonne carry.

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Since the start of November, nearby soy oil futures have fallen 5.8 percent while soy meal has risen 5.6 percent.

Because canola has a large oil component, soy oil prices have a big bearing on canola values.

The vegetable oil price is struggling against falling crude oil as well. Brent crude has fallen 9.2 percent since the start of the month.

Soybeans finished a little higher Thursday, supported by a strong cash market.

Soy meal, which has been the market leader in recent weeks, had a subdued day after the volatility of Wednesday.

Meal soared Tuesday and early Wednesday but then nose dived when talk circulated that users were going to bring in meal from Argentina. Today traders took another stab at moving meal higher but that ran into resistance and fell, settling lower on the day.

The big gains today were in corn, which closed up more than two percent.

Support came from ideas that the snow and cold hitting the upper Midwest could hurt the wind up of harvest. Also the cold should increase livestock feeders’ demand for corn.

Strong ethanol production also supported corn as did slow farmer selling.

Wheat also rose on the cold weather that could damage newly planted crops that are not protected by snow.

Wheat is also backed by dry weather in Australia and Russia and growing tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

Also, a government weather analyst in Ukraine today reported that one half of winter crops were sown late, in the second half of October. They are under developed and could be damaged by frost.

So far the plants are generally in satisfactory condition and fairly mild weather is expected over the next 10 days with only slight frosts.

But perhaps 30 percent will likely enter the winter in poor condition.

Area seeded to wheat is up three percent this year.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $2.97 at US$74.21 per barrel, pressured by rising stocks in the United States and comments from Saudi Arabian officials that they are not interested in curbing output.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US88.11 cents, down from 88.62 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.1350.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 77.43 points, or 0.52 percent, at 14,778.77.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 40.59 points, or 0.23 percent, to close at a record high 17,652.79; the S&P 500 gained 1.08 points, or 0.05 percent, to 2,039.33 and the Nasdaq Composite added 5.01 points, or 0.11 percent, to 4,680.14.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2014 440.00 -5.00 -1.12%

Canola Jan 2015 424.60 -5.00 -1.16%

Canola Mar 2015 428.80 -1.70 -0.39%

Canola May 2015 431.20 +0.30 +0.07%

Canola Jul 2015 434.50 +2.90 +0.67%

Milling Wheat Dec 2014 228.00 +1.00 +0.44%

Milling Wheat Mar 2015 235.00 +1.00 +0.43%

Milling Wheat May 2015 238.00 +1.00 +0.42%

Durum Wheat Dec 2014 356.50 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2015 357.50 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2015 357.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2014 158.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2015 160.00 -1.00 -0.62%

Barley May 2015 160.00 -1.00 -0.62%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 2014 1050.5 +2.25 +0.21%

Soybeans Jan 2015 1053.5 +5.75 +0.55%

Soybeans Mar 2015 1059.75 +6.25 +0.59%

Soybeans May 2015 1064.5 +6.25 +0.59%

Soybeans Jul 2015 1069 +6.25 +0.59%

Soybeans Aug 2015 1069.5 +6.25 +0.59%

Soybean Meal Dec 2014 393.5 -1.5 -0.38%

Soybean Meal Jan 2015 379.7 -1 -0.26%

Soybean Meal Mar 2015 365.2 -0.6 -0.16%

Soybean Oil Dec 2014 32.07 -0.15 -0.47%

Soybean Oil Jan 2015 32.23 -0.14 -0.43%

Soybean Oil Mar 2015 32.44 -0.12 -0.37%

Corn Dec 2014 386.25 +8.5 +2.25%

Corn Mar 2015 398.75 +8.25 +2.11%

Corn May 2015 407.25 +8.25 +2.07%

Corn Jul 2015 414.25 +7.5 +1.84%

Corn Sep 2015 421 +7.5 +1.81%

Oats Dec 2014 338.75 +0.75 +0.22%

Oats Mar 2015 342 +3.75 +1.11%

Oats May 2015 343 +5.5 +1.63%

Oats Jul 2015 338.5 +6.5 +1.96%

Oats Sep 2015 339.25 +4.75 +1.42%

Wheat Dec 2014 553.75 +11 +2.03%

Wheat Mar 2015 556 +8 +1.46%

Wheat May 2015 562.5 +7.25 +1.31%

Wheat Jul 2015 568.5 +7 +1.25%

Wheat Sep 2015 577.5 +7.25 +1.27%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 2014 584.25 +3 +0.52%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015 592.75 +2.25 +0.38%

Spring Wheat May 2015 601 +2.5 +0.42%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015 609.5 +3 +0.49%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015 618.25 +3.75 +0.61%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014 605.25 +6 +1.00%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015 606 +7 +1.17%

Hard Red Wheat May 2015 609.25 +8.25 +1.37%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 606.5 +8.5 +1.42%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 618.25 +9 +1.48%

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