BEIJING, May 9 (Reuters) – China’s corn production in 2016 is expected to decline 2.9 percent from last year to 218 million tonnes, as farmers in the northeast are expected to switch crops, a state-backed think tank said on Monday.
China decided in March to end a corn stockpiling programme that supported domestic prices for farmers and at the same time spurred imports of cheaper substitutes like sorghum and distillers’ grains.
The China National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC) said it expected the policy change to bring output down by 6.58 million tonnes this year, with demand already weakening.
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The CNGOIC said feed demand had slowed, and was expected to drop 10.4 percent to 110.4 million tonnes over the 2015-16 marketing year. Overall corn consumption was expected to reach 185.54 million tonnes over the period, leaving a surplus of 41.85 million tonnes.
Chinese corn prices had already fallen by a large amount since the beginning of the 2015-16 marketing year, making imports less attractive, CNGOIC added.
It predicted corn imports would fall by more than a half to 2.7 million tonnes over the 2015-16 marketing year, while imports of distillers’ grains would fall to 3.5 million tonnes over the same period, down nearly 60 percent from the 2014-15 marketing year.
Chinese distillers’ grains imports over the whole of 2015 hit a record 6.82 million tonnes, up 26 percent on the year, according to the country’s customs authority. Sorghum imports also jumped 85 percent on the year to a record 10.69 million tonnes.
