Canola did not have the juice to rally for a fourth day despite support from rising soybeans and soy oil and another half cent fall in the loonie.
The price varied little during the day and at the close March was down 20 cents at $411.20 and November was also down 20 cents at $448.90.
A pick up in farmer selling and the grain transportation problems took the steam out of the rally.
Soybeans climbed, corn rose, March oats again soared almost 20 cents a bushel and wheat’s rally stalled out on profit taking.
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The biggest news of the day came from the USDA Outlook Conference where chief economist Joe Glauber gave an overview of what can be expected for the coming crop year.
As expected, U.S. soybean area will be up and corn seeding down reflecting the relative profitability of the two crops.
But because the USDA expects area of all crops will be lower than last year, the forecasts were slightly bullish, mainly for new crop months. However, USDA’s overall price forecasts are down from the current crop year.
USDA forecast 2014 soybean area at a record 79.5 million acres, up almost four percent from last year. However, many analysts had expected 80 million acres.
It forecast 2014 corn area at 92 million acres, down 3.5 percent from last year and at the low end of analysts’ expectations.
The wheat area outlook is 55.25 million acres, down 1.2 percent from 56.2 million seeded in 2013.
Winter wheat already in the ground is down 1.2 million acres, so it appears USDA sees spring wheat about steady.
Cotton area is expected to rise 10.5 percent. More specific details about the various crops will be released on Friday morning.
Overall, USDA sees plantings of the eight major crops dipping 0.7 percent to 253.8 million acres in 2014. Most of the trade had expected an increase of overall acreage, partly because of removal of land from the Conservation Reserve Program.
USDA sees the wheat price average for 2014-15 falling 22 percent to $5.30 US per bushel from $6.80 in the current year.
The corn annual average price falls 13.3 percent to $3.90 per bu. from $4.50.
The soybean average falls 24 percent to $9.65 per bu. from 12.70
In other news, recent rain in dry parts of Brazil was a negative factor for prices but generally the expectation is that weather there has reduced the production potential and is interfering with a quick harvest and movement to port.
Argentina’s government trimmed its estimate of how much soy was planted. It now pegs seeded area at 20.3 million hectares, down from 20.8
Cold weather expected next week in the U.S. provides support for wheat but as usual, damage to the winter crop will depend on whether snow falls with the cold.
Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 20 days of February are substantially better than the same period in January.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Mar 2014 411.20 -0.20 -0.05%
Canola May 2014 421.50 -0.40 -0.09%
Canola Jul 2014 431.30 -0.30 -0.07%
Canola Nov 2014 448.90 -0.20 -0.04%
Canola Jan 2015 456.50 -0.10 -0.02%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 200.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat May 2014 198.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014 199.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 245.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014 249.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 126.50 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Mar 2014 1358.25 +4 +0.30%
Soybeans May 2014 1347.75 +5.75 +0.43%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1331.75 +7 +0.53%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1281.25 +7 +0.55%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1199.75 +7.75 +0.65%
Soybeans Nov 2014 1145.25 +8.25 +0.73%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014 450.9 -2.1 -0.46%
Soybean Meal May 2014 437 +0.5 +0.11%
Soybean Meal Jul 2014 424.6 +1.6 +0.38%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014 40.57 +0.33 +0.82%
Soybean Oil May 2014 40.82 +0.3 +0.74%
Soybean Oil Jul 2014 41.06 +0.26 +0.64%
Corn Mar 2014 455.75 +2 +0.44%
Corn May 2014 462.25 +2 +0.43%
Corn Jul 2014 466.75 +2 +0.43%
Corn Sep 2014 466.5 +1.25 +0.27%
Corn Dec 2014 468.75 +0.5 +0.11%
Oats Mar 2014 468.5 +19.75 +4.40%
Oats May 2014 433.75 +20 +4.83%
Oats Jul 2014 391.75 +21.5 +5.81%
Oats Sep 2014 340 unch 0.00%
Oats Dec 2014 321 +1.5 +0.47%
Wheat Mar 2014 616.25 -4 -0.64%
Wheat May 2014 613.5 unch 0.00%
Wheat Jul 2014 617.25 +0.25 +0.04%
Wheat Sep 2014 626 +0.5 +0.08%
Wheat Dec 2014 638.25 +0.75 +0.12%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 681.75 -2.25 -0.33%
Spring Wheat May 2014 660.5 +1 +0.15%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 662.25 +0.25 +0.04%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 669.5 +0.5 +0.07%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 679.5 -0.25 -0.04%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 691.75 -0.75 -0.11%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 683.75 +2 +0.29%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 675.5 +2 +0.30%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 681 +1.25 +0.18%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2014 691.5 +1.5 +0.22%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 39 cents at $102.92 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 90.06 cents US, down from 90.54 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1104 Cdn.
Canadian and U.S. stock indexes were up Thursday afternoon after a report on U.S. manufacturing activity hit a four-year high, more than offsetting other soft data and weak results from Wal-Mart.
