A weaker loonie and talk of fresh export demand helped canola edge higher on Tuesday but soybeans fell after the United States Department of Agriculture did not trim its year end soybean stocks estimate.
The USDA report was slightly supportive for corn but the corn futures market did not close higher, as U.S. crop futures struggled against a rising American dollar.
Wheat futures closed higher, mostly on short covering, with hard red winter wheat leading the way up, gaining about one percent. May Minneapolis spring wheat was up 0.66 percent.
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Some Indian traders believe the chickpea crop will be down by 20 percent from last year, a result of reduced acreage and the recent rain.
Heavier rain is expected for next week, raising the risk of even more severe damage and the potential for increased imports from Canada.
The USDA report was not a barnburner.
The department left its forecast for U.S. 2014-15 soybean ending stocks unchanged at 385 million bushels, above an average of analyst estimates of 376 million.
It raised its global year end soybean stocks forecast to 89.53 million tonnes, up from 89.26 million last month.
It was more bullish for corn.
It cut domestic corn stocks by 50 million bu. to 1.777 billion, the low end of a range of analysts’ forecasts in a Reuters poll. It was the fifth month in a row that the government has lowered its U.S. corn supply view.
USDA cut world corn stocks to 185.28 million tonnes from 189.64 million.
It trimmed U.S. year end wheat stocks to 691 million bushels, down just one million. However, the trade had expected a higher number.
It forecast global wheat ending stocks at 197.71 million tonnes, from 197.85 million in February, but still a four-year high.
USDA kept its South American soybean crop forecast at 94.5 million tonnes, but Brazil’s government crop supply agency Conab today cut its forecast for the 2014-15 soybean crop to 93.3 million tonnes, from 94.6 million last month.
The U.S. dollar rose to a 12-year high against the euro and an eight year high against the yen.
Friday’s strong U.S. monthly jobs report raised the expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates from their ultra low levels to prevent a potential rapid rise in inflation.
Higher interest rates will attract foreign capital to U.S. dollar denominated bonds.
Commodities, which are mostly priced in U.S. currency, generally fell as they will become more expensive for foreign buyers with weaker currencies.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.71 to US$48.29 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US79.16 cents, down from US79.38 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2633.
Stock market indexes are generally down about 1.5 percent this afternoon.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Mar 2015 456.80 +4.70
Canola May 2015 461.80 +4.70
Canola Jul 2015 457.00 +1.70
Canola Nov 2015 448.50 -1.20
Canola Jan 2016 450.20 -1.00
Milling Wheat Mar 2015 227.00 +2.00
Milling Wheat May 2015 234.00 +2.00
Milling Wheat Jul 2015 237.00 +2.00
Durum Wheat Mar 2015 333.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2015 323.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2015 313.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2015 182.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2015 184.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2015 186.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Mar 2015 980 -8.25 -0.83%
Soybeans May 2015 984.5 -8.75 -0.88%
Soybeans Jul 2015 989.25 -9.25 -0.93%
Soybeans Aug 2015 988 -8.75 -0.88%
Soybeans Sep 2015 973.25 -8 -0.82%
Soybeans Nov 2015 965.25 -6.75 -0.69%
Soybean Meal Mar 2015 342 -1.9 -0.55%
Soybean Meal May 2015 331 -3.1 -0.93%
Soybean Meal Jul 2015 327.3 -3.4 -1.03%
Soybean Oil Mar 2015 30.84 -0.04 -0.13%
Soybean Oil May 2015 30.96 -0.04 -0.13%
Soybean Oil Jul 2015 31.15 -0.03 -0.10%
Corn Mar 2015 382.25 -1 -0.26%
Corn May 2015 388 -0.75 -0.19%
Corn Jul 2015 395.75 -0.5 -0.13%
Corn Sep 2015 403.25 -0.5 -0.12%
Corn Dec 2015 412.25 -0.5 -0.12%
Oats Mar 2015 288.75 +4.5 +1.58%
Oats May 2015 282.5 -3.75 -1.31%
Oats Jul 2015 285 -2.5 -0.87%
Oats Sep 2015 287.75 +0.25 +0.09%
Oats Dec 2015 285.75 +0.25 +0.09%
Wheat Mar 2015 496.5 +2.25 +0.46%
Wheat May 2015 493.25 +3.25 +0.66%
Wheat Jul 2015 497 +2.75 +0.56%
Wheat Sep 2015 507 +3 +0.60%
Wheat Dec 2015 521.75 +3.25 +0.63%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2015 551.75 +3.5 +0.64%
Spring Wheat May 2015 564.75 +4 +0.71%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 570.5 +4.5 +0.80%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 578.25 +4.5 +0.78%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 588.25 +4.25 +0.73%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015 534.75 +5.75 +1.09%
Hard Red Wheat May 2015 536 +5.5 +1.04%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 540.5 +5 +0.93%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 551.75 +5 +0.91%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 568 +5.5 +0.98%
