July canola futures moved in on $500 a tonne on Thursday but closed a little shy at $496.60.
In addition to support from dry weather in Canada and reseeding of canola after last weekend’s frosts, the oilseed was lifted by stronger soybeans.
Analysts and traders are trying to determine how much canola is being reseeded and how many acres might go into different crops.
Some seed suppliers estimate a million acres are being re-sown.
From Thursday May 28 to Wednesday June 3, the cash price in western Saskatchewan has risen about $15 a tonne according to data from PDQinfo.ca whereas the futures price over that period has risen almost $24.
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The area around Lethbridge, Alta. and a small area south of Winnipeg got light rain yesterday. The rest of the Prairies were mostly dry. Not much rain in the forecast except maybe thundershowers in southern Manitoba on Saturday.
Only 44 percent of Saskatchewan’s canola crop is rated good to excellent, down from 87 percent at the same time last year, said the province’s crop report. This year 32 percent of crop is poor to very poor compared to just one percent last year at the same time.
Soybeans climbed on rain forecasts for the Midwest that will delay the tail end of the soy seeding campaign.
The strongest gains today were in wheat, with Minneapolis spring wheat climbing more than 2.5 percent.
Concerns remain about the condition of the U.S. winter wheat crop.
Reuters reported some farmers in Texas are finding low test weights and weak yields from some early harvested fields. Also there could be more showers in the region in coming days that could further slow the start of combining and add to the disease threat.
Also, the trade is again talking about dry weather in Russia as a concern.
The USDA on Wednesday will release its June supply and demand reports. Analysts forecast for the hard red winter crop range from 820 million bushels to 885 million with an average of 856 million, Reuters said.
USDA’s forecast last month was 853 million and last year’s crop was 738 million.
The rally in wheat helped to lift corn futures.
Reuters also reported that its poll of analysts shows they expect the government to trim its 2015-16 U.S. domestic soybean stocks view to 487 million bu. from 500 million bu.
Old-crop soybean stocks were forecast at 339 million bu., 11 million lower than the USDA’s May estimate.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.64 to US$58 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US80.15 cents, down from 80.41 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2477.
The falling oil price, volatile bond markets, worries about U.S. growth and the continuing uncertainly on Greek debt pressured stock markets lower.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index fell 135.29 points, or 0.89 percent, to 15,019.39.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 164.15 points, or 0.91 percent, to 17,912.12, the S&P 500 lost 17.72 points, or 0.84 percent, to 2,096.35 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 40.11 points, or 0.79 percent, to 5,059.13
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2015 497.70 +7.30 +1.49%
Canola Nov 2015 494.70 +6.10 +1.25%
Canola Jan 2016 492.10 +6.40 +1.32%
Canola Mar 2016 489.20 +6.00 +1.24%
Canola May 2016 486.10 +6.00 +1.25%
Milling Wheat Jul 2015 220.00 +5.00 +2.33%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015 222.00 +5.00 +2.30%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015 222.00 +5.00 +2.30%
Durum Wheat Jul 2015 298.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015 298.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015 303.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2015 197.00 +6.00 +3.14%
Barley Oct 2015 187.00 +6.00 +3.31%
Barley Dec 2015 192.00 +6.00 +3.23%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2015 946.5 +11.25 +1.20%
Soybeans Aug 2015 934.75 +10.25 +1.11%
Soybeans Sep 2015 925.75 +10.75 +1.17%
Soybeans Nov 2015 924 +9 +0.98%
Soybeans Jan 2016 931 +8.75 +0.95%
Soybeans Mar 2016 936 +8.5 +0.92%
Soybean Meal Jul 2015 305.7 +3 +0.99%
Soybean Meal Aug 2015 299.6 +3.2 +1.08%
Soybean Meal Sep 2015 296.9 +3.2 +1.09%
Soybean Oil Jul 2015 34.53 -0.2 -0.58%
Soybean Oil Aug 2015 34.52 -0.21 -0.60%
Soybean Oil Sep 2015 34.54 -0.21 -0.60%
Corn Jul 2015 363.5 +4.5 +1.25%
Corn Sep 2015 370.25 +4.5 +1.23%
Corn Dec 2015 381 +4.25 +1.13%
Corn Mar 2016 391.75 +4.25 +1.10%
Corn May 2016 399.25 +4.5 +1.14%
Oats Jul 2015 254 +2.25 +0.89%
Oats Sep 2015 259.75 +2 +0.78%
Oats Dec 2015 266.75 +2.25 +0.85%
Oats Mar 2016 274.25 +2.75 +1.01%
Oats May 2016 281 +2.75 +0.99%
Wheat Jul 2015 523.75 +13 +2.55%
Wheat Sep 2015 529.25 +14.25 +2.77%
Wheat Dec 2015 543 +14.5 +2.74%
Wheat Mar 2016 556.5 +14.25 +2.63%
Wheat May 2016 565.25 +13.75 +2.49%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 575.75 +12.75 +2.26%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 585 +13.25 +2.32%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 599 +13.5 +2.31%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 612.5 +14 +2.34%
Spring Wheat May 2016 621.75 +14.25 +2.35%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 541.25 +12 +2.27%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 552 +13 +2.41%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 569.5 +13.25 +2.38%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 583 +13.25 +2.33%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016 591.75 +13 +2.25%
