China is still the big story in all markets, with Thursday marked by big relief that its stock markets appear to have stopped bleeding and that it wouldn’t pull the whole world down.
Crops have spent the last few days moving separately from stocks and other markets, but not necessarily independently, since the interrelationships of stock, commodities, bonds, risk-on and risk-off assets is incredibly complex.
But one thing was clear Thursday: the future direction of crop futures is exceedingly unclear and big swings in value might predominate for coming weeks.
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“Everything has been bouncing back,” said John Divined, editor of the Wild Oats markets newsletter.
But “we’re in bear markets here, and maybe it’s an old bear market, but it’s a volatile process to make the turn (to a bull market) and we’re getting all sorts of volatility these days.”
Duvenaud said he thinks harvest pressure will keep the downside pressure in play for weeks longer, but the present volatility could be signs of the lower reaches of the present bear market.
Canola, soybean oil and soybeans were up moderately Thursday, oats and corn were up slightly, while wheat was slightly down.
Soybeans were helped by U.S. Department of Agriculture export reports that showed an unexpectedly high flow of American soybeans to China last week, at almost 900,000 tonnes. Overall exports were 1.3 million tonnes.
Wheat was pressured by poor U.S. exports plus the news that Russia was discount-pricing grain sold to countries like Egypt. The International Grains Council also bumped up its world wheat production estimate by 10 million tonnes.
The CWB dropped its 2015-16 Pool Return Outlook prices by $19-22 per tonne for wheat classes, with durum dropping $15 per tonne, and canola down an average of $40 down.
The over-300 point surge in the Dow 30 cheered further many anxious investors Thursday, with two days of gains covering up lots of the mayhem left in the few days before that.
The relief rally swept up oil, which surged the most in six years on the feeling that economic growth can continue.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $3.96 to US$42.56 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.77cents, up from 75.17 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3197.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2015 472.80 +3.10 +0.66%
Canola Jan 2016 477.40 +3.20 +0.67%
Canola May 2016 482.00 +5.00 +1.05%
Canola Jul 2016 481.00 +5.20 +1.09%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015 226.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015 226.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Mar 2016 230.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015 335.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015 335.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2016 340.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2015 191.90 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2015 191.90 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2016 193.90 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2015 886.25 +8.5 +0.97%
Soybeans Nov 2015 879 +14 +1.62%
Soybeans Jan 2016 883.75 +15.25 +1.76%
Soybeans Mar 2016 885 +15.75 +1.81%
Soybeans May 2016 888 +15.5 +1.78%
Soybeans Jul 2016 891.75 +16 +1.83%
Soybean Meal Sep 2015 322.9 -1.5 -0.46%
Soybean Meal Oct 2015 317.3 +0.2 +0.06%
Soybean Meal Dec 2015 315 +1.1 +0.35%
Soybean Oil Sep 2015 26.89 +0.77 +2.95%
Soybean Oil Oct 2015 27 +0.8 +3.05%
Soybean Oil Dec 2015 27.24 +0.8 +3.03%
Corn Sep 2015 363.75 +2 +0.55%
Corn Dec 2015 375 +1.75 +0.47%
Corn Mar 2016 386.25 +2 +0.52%
Corn May 2016 392.75 +2 +0.51%
Corn Jul 2016 397 +2 +0.51%
Oats Sep 2015 217 +6.25 +2.97%
Oats Dec 2015 222 +6.25 +2.90%
Oats May 2016 227.5 +0.75 +0.33%
Oats Jul 2016 228.5 +0.75 +0.33%
Wheat Sep 2015 484.25 -5.5 -1.12%
Wheat Dec 2015 489.75 -4.5 -0.91%
Wheat Mar 2016 497.75 -3.25 -0.65%
Wheat May 2016 503 -2.25 -0.45%
Wheat Jul 2016 506.75 -1.25 -0.25%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 494.5 -1.75 -0.35%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 513.5 -0.5 -0.10%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 531 -0.25 -0.05%
Spring Wheat May 2016 542.25 -0.25 -0.05%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016 553 unch 0.00%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 464.5 -2 -0.43%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 488.25 -1 -0.20%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 502.75 -1 -0.20%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016 512.5 -1.25 -0.24%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 522.5 -1 -0.19%
