Most crop market futures were up Thursday, despite falling stock markets, currency volatility and interest rate uncertainty.
It was a welcome relief from the recent sliding in crop prices, but no one was calling it a bottom in the market.
“Canola is too high in this market,” said Errol Anderson of the Pro Market Wire newsletter.
The U.S. dollar fell Thursday, helping commodity prices in general, and canola rose along with most of the others regardless.
The August Statistics Canada crop progress report, due to be released tomorrow, hung over expectations, with the greatest danger to the downside.
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“If we do get a bearish number, canola could be down brutally tomorrow,” said Anderson, estimating that a 14 million tonne plus estimate for Canadian canola would be seen as bearish.
World vegetable oil prices have been in the tank recently, weakening overseas demand for relatively expensive canola.
Anderson said even a bullish StatsCan number, which would be something under 13.5 million tonnes, would not reverse the downward fall of prices for long.
“It’ll just be a one-day wonder,” said Anderson.
While the general world situation for crop prices is bearish, U.S. weekly export reports suggested a quickening pace of overseas sales, helping clear old crop supplies right before the new crop comes in.
World stock markets were off again for a number of reasons. Weakness virtually everywhere undermined confidence in continuing economic growth, Greek political stability was once again in question, currency volatility was disrupting markets across Asia and the U.S. economic situation appears to be weakening.
Contact ed.white@producer.com
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 34 to US$41.14 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.45 cents, up from 75.96 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3080.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2015Â Â 478.30Â Â +4.90Â Â +1.04%
Canola Jan 2016Â Â 478.30Â Â +5.00Â Â +1.06%
Canola Mar 2016Â Â 478.30Â Â +5.20Â Â +1.10%
Canola May 2016Â Â 476.70Â Â +5.50Â Â +1.17%
Canola Jul 2016Â Â 474.00Â Â +5.90Â Â +1.26%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015Â Â 228.00Â Â +2.00Â Â +0.88%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015Â Â 228.00Â Â +2.00Â Â +0.88%
Milling Wheat Mar 2016Â Â 232.00Â Â +2.00Â Â +0.87%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015  335.00  unch  0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015  335.00  unch  0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2016  340.00  unch  0.00%
Barley Oct 2015Â Â 202.10Â Â -1.50Â Â -0.74%
Barley Dec 2015Â Â 202.10Â Â -1.50Â Â -0.74%
Barley Mar 2016Â Â 204.10Â Â -1.50Â Â -0.73%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2015Â Â 921.5Â Â +18Â Â +1.99%
Soybeans Nov 2015Â Â 907.25Â Â +13.75Â Â +1.54%
Soybeans Jan 2016Â Â 911.75Â Â +13Â Â +1.45%
Soybeans Mar 2016Â Â 911.25Â Â +12Â Â +1.33%
Soybeans May 2016Â Â 911.5Â Â +11.5Â Â +1.28%
Soybeans Jul 2016Â Â 915.25Â Â +10.75Â Â +1.19%
Soybean Meal Sep 2015Â Â 330.9Â Â +6.9Â Â +2.13%
Soybean Meal Oct 2015Â Â 321.6Â Â +7Â Â +2.23%
Soybean Meal Dec 2015Â Â 318.7Â Â +7.1Â Â +2.28%
Soybean Oil Sep 2015Â Â 27.98Â Â +0.09Â Â +0.32%
Soybean Oil Oct 2015Â Â 28.07Â Â +0.08Â Â +0.29%
Soybean Oil Dec 2015Â Â 28.28Â Â +0.07Â Â +0.25%
Corn Sep 2015Â Â 371Â Â +3.75Â Â +1.02%
Corn Dec 2015Â Â 382.5Â Â +4Â Â +1.06%
Corn Mar 2016Â Â 393.75Â Â +3.75Â Â +0.96%
Corn May 2016Â Â 399.5Â Â +3.75Â Â +0.95%
Corn Jul 2016Â Â 403.5Â Â +3.5Â Â +0.88%
Oats Sep 2015Â Â 221.5Â Â -1.75Â Â -0.78%
Oats Dec 2015Â Â 233Â Â -1Â Â -0.43%
Oats Mar 2016Â Â 240.25Â Â -1.5Â Â -0.62%
Oats May 2016Â Â 247.75Â Â -1.5Â Â -0.60%
Oats Jul 2016Â Â 248.75Â Â -1.5Â Â -0.60%
Wheat Sep 2015Â Â 506.25Â Â +10Â Â +2.02%
Wheat Dec 2015Â Â 511.25Â Â +11.25Â Â +2.25%
Wheat Mar 2016Â Â 515.5Â Â +11.75Â Â +2.33%
Wheat May 2016Â Â 517.75Â Â +11.75Â Â +2.32%
Wheat Jul 2016Â Â 519.75Â Â +11.25Â Â +2.21%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2015Â Â 513Â Â +4.75Â Â +0.93%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015Â Â 527.75Â Â +5Â Â +0.96%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016Â Â 544Â Â +5.5Â Â +1.02%
Spring Wheat May 2016Â Â 554.25Â Â +5.5Â Â +1.00%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016Â Â 564.25Â Â +5.75Â Â +1.03%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015Â Â 481.25Â Â +7Â Â +1.48%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016Â Â 515.25Â Â +7.75Â Â +1.53%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016Â Â 525Â Â +8Â Â +1.55%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016Â Â 534.25Â Â +7.75Â Â +1.47%