Canola up, but recovery not expected to last

Most crop market futures were up Thursday, despite falling stock markets, currency volatility and interest rate uncertainty.

It was a welcome relief from the recent sliding in crop prices, but no one was calling it a bottom in the market.

“Canola is too high in this market,” said Errol Anderson of the Pro Market Wire newsletter.

The U.S. dollar fell Thursday, helping commodity prices in general, and canola rose along with most of the others regardless.

The August Statistics Canada crop progress report, due to be released tomorrow, hung over expectations, with the greatest danger to the downside.

Read Also

U.S. livestock: Cattle fall sharply as Trump says he’s working to lower beef costs

Chicago cattle futures fell sharply on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said his administration was working to lower the…

“If we do get a bearish number, canola could be down brutally tomorrow,” said Anderson, estimating that a 14 million tonne plus estimate for Canadian canola would be seen as bearish.

World vegetable oil prices have been in the tank recently, weakening overseas demand for relatively expensive canola.

Anderson said even a bullish StatsCan number, which would be something under 13.5 million tonnes, would not reverse the downward fall of prices for long.

“It’ll just be a one-day wonder,” said Anderson.

While the general world situation for crop prices is bearish, U.S. weekly export reports suggested a quickening pace of overseas sales, helping clear old crop supplies right before the new crop comes in.

World stock markets were off again for a number of reasons. Weakness virtually everywhere undermined confidence in continuing economic growth, Greek political stability was once again in question, currency volatility was disrupting markets across Asia and the U.S. economic situation appears to be weakening.

Contact ed.white@producer.com

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 34 to US$41.14 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.45 cents, up from 75.96 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3080.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2015   478.30   +4.90   +1.04%
Canola Jan 2016   478.30   +5.00   +1.06%
Canola Mar 2016   478.30   +5.20   +1.10%
Canola May 2016   476.70   +5.50   +1.17%
Canola Jul 2016   474.00   +5.90   +1.26%

Milling Wheat Oct 2015   228.00   +2.00   +0.88%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015   228.00   +2.00   +0.88%
Milling Wheat Mar 2016   232.00   +2.00   +0.87%

Durum Wheat Oct 2015   335.00   unch   0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015   335.00   unch   0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2016   340.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Oct 2015   202.10   -1.50   -0.74%
Barley Dec 2015   202.10   -1.50   -0.74%
Barley Mar 2016   204.10   -1.50   -0.73%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2015   921.5   +18   +1.99%
Soybeans Nov 2015   907.25   +13.75   +1.54%
Soybeans Jan 2016   911.75   +13   +1.45%
Soybeans Mar 2016   911.25   +12   +1.33%
Soybeans May 2016   911.5   +11.5   +1.28%
Soybeans Jul 2016   915.25   +10.75   +1.19%

Soybean Meal Sep 2015   330.9   +6.9   +2.13%
Soybean Meal Oct 2015   321.6   +7   +2.23%
Soybean Meal Dec 2015   318.7   +7.1   +2.28%

Soybean Oil Sep 2015   27.98   +0.09   +0.32%
Soybean Oil Oct 2015   28.07   +0.08   +0.29%
Soybean Oil Dec 2015   28.28   +0.07   +0.25%

Corn Sep 2015   371   +3.75   +1.02%
Corn Dec 2015   382.5   +4   +1.06%
Corn Mar 2016   393.75   +3.75   +0.96%
Corn May 2016   399.5   +3.75   +0.95%
Corn Jul 2016   403.5   +3.5   +0.88%

Oats Sep 2015   221.5   -1.75   -0.78%
Oats Dec 2015   233   -1   -0.43%
Oats Mar 2016   240.25   -1.5   -0.62%
Oats May 2016   247.75   -1.5   -0.60%
Oats Jul 2016   248.75   -1.5   -0.60%

Wheat Sep 2015   506.25   +10   +2.02%
Wheat Dec 2015   511.25   +11.25   +2.25%
Wheat Mar 2016   515.5   +11.75   +2.33%
Wheat May 2016   517.75   +11.75   +2.32%
Wheat Jul 2016   519.75   +11.25   +2.21%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2015   513   +4.75   +0.93%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015   527.75   +5   +0.96%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016   544   +5.5   +1.02%
Spring Wheat May 2016   554.25   +5.5   +1.00%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016   564.25   +5.75   +1.03%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015   481.25   +7   +1.48%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015   501.25   +7.5   +1.52%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016   515.25   +7.75   +1.53%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016   525   +8   +1.55%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016   534.25   +7.75   +1.47%