Much of canola futures’ remaining cockiness was slapped out of it Monday, as prices slumped and sellers had trouble finding buyers.
“The speculators have been sitting there long and now they’re trying to get out,” said broker Ken Ball of P.I. Financial in Winnipeg.
Monday was a day of losses for almost all crops as weather worries alleviated and North American crops in general were seen to be in improving shape.
But canola suffered more red ink than most crops, dropping $17.50 per tonne to $599.90 on the July contract and $10.30 to $548.70 for the November.
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Ball said commercial buyers walked away from the July contracts weeks ago, not believing the theory that a massive short squeeze would make prices skyrocket before expiry, and so far they appear to have made that call right.
“The commercials just didn’t buy that theory,” said Ball.
The drop of July canola to slightly beneath $600 and the compression of the big inverse that has dominated the old crop/new crop spread since last summer may create more bearish signals to traders, with old crop price momentum fading.
Soybeans fell 16 cents on the July contract and 17 cents on the August, reversing Friday’s soybeans rally.
Oats were an odd exception to the general selloff in the crop markets, with September oats rising six cents per bushel to $3.95, close to July’s $4.10.
Ball said he didn’t read much into that aberration, since that crop’s futures contract is thinly traded and can be skewed by big moves by a handful of players.
“It’s a fairly tight market dominated by a few traders and a few companies,” said Ball.
Crops were the weakest part of the commodities complex Monday, losing about one percent overall. Energies were also weak, but meats and the “softs” – sugar, coffee and cocoa – were winners on the day.
U.S. equity markets were higher Monday.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2013 599.90 -17.50 -2.83%
Canola Nov 2013 548.70 -10.30 -1.84%
Canola Jan 2014 550.40 -10.50 -1.87%
Canola Mar 2014 547.60 -10.40 -1.86%
Canola May 2014 542.70 -10.40 -1.88%
Milling Wheat Jul 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2013 301.90 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013 294.90 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 299.40 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2013 244.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 199.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2013 1511.75 -16.5 -1.08%
Soybeans Aug 2013 1435.75 -20.5 -1.41%
Soybeans Sep 2013 1356.5 -17.5 -1.27%
Soybeans Nov 2013 1319 -11.25 -0.85%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1325.75 -9.5 -0.71%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1323 -7.5 -0.56%
Soybean Meal Jul 2013 448.3 -4.2 -0.93%
Soybean Meal Aug 2013 423.5 -7.7 -1.79%
Soybean Meal Sep 2013 408.3 -5.4 -1.31%
Soybean Oil Jul 2013 48.07 -0.46 -0.95%
Soybean Oil Aug 2013 48.08 -0.47 -0.97%
Soybean Oil Sep 2013 47.95 -0.45 -0.93%
Corn Jul 2013 650 -16.25 -2.44%
Corn Sep 2013 577.25 -14.25 -2.41%
Corn Dec 2013 546 -12.5 -2.24%
Corn Mar 2014 556.5 -12.25 -2.15%
Corn May 2014 563.75 -12.25 -2.13%
Oats Jul 2013 410 +2.5 +0.61%
Oats Sep 2013 395 +6 +1.54%
Oats Dec 2013 381.5 +8.75 +2.35%
Oats Mar 2014 384.75 +10.25 +2.74%
Oats May 2014 387 +10.25 +2.72%
Wheat Jul 2013 689.75 -6.5 -0.93%
Wheat Sep 2013 699 -5.75 -0.82%
Wheat Dec 2013 713.75 -5.5 -0.76%
Wheat Mar 2014 728.5 -5.5 -0.75%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2013 811.5 -8.25 -1.01%
Spring Wheat Sep 2013 798.5 -6.5 -0.81%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 806.25 -6 -0.74%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 818.5 -6.75 -0.82%
Spring Wheat May 2014 825 -7 -0.84%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2013 726 -9 -1.22%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 732.5 -10.25 -1.38%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 751.25 -9.5 -1.25%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 764.75 -9.75 -1.26%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 26 cents at $95.77 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 98.16 cents US, up from 97.94 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0187 Cdn.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 9.37 points, or 0.08 percent, at 12,382.67.
The Dow Jones industrial average was down 10.91 points, or 0.07 percent, at 15,237.21. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 0.64 points, or 0.04 percent, at 1,642.74. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 4.55 points, or 0.13 percent, at 3,473.77.
