Canola survives soybean decline following USDA report

Sometimes reports rock markets and sometimes they almost go unnoticed.

Monday’s U.S. Department of Agriculture’s world situation, U.S. production and stocks reports did a bit of both, moving most crop futures only slightly but giving a sharp jab to soybean futures, with March down 3.44 percent.

Canola futures, however, were only moderately pounded, with the March contract falling only 1.24 percent.

The USDA found the U.S. produced 11 million soybean bushels more than it projected in November, which was about 13 million bushels more than analysts expected. On an almost 14 billion bushel crop that’s not a lot, but it fed fears and hopes that some traders held.

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THE U.S. stocks forecast for the end of the crop year was unchanged at 410 million bushels but the trade, on average, had expected only 393 million.

USDA’s world soybean year end stocks forecast came in at 90.78 million tonnes, up from the trade’s average expectation of 89.35 million.

“Sellers were waiting to see if there was no bullish news, and I think speculative traders who were long just dumped, so all of a sudden everyone was selling,” said P.I. Financial adviser Ken Ball.

“But there wasn’t really a lot in the report.”

University of Illinois analyst Darrel Good also noted the lack of newsiness in the USDA reports.

“Taken together, the reports are slightly supportive for corn prices and slightly negative for soybean prices,” said Good.

However, he noted the prediction of a nearly two million acre decline in winter wheat acres could be bearish for soybean expectations because those acres could shift to that crop in the spring.

The USDA boosted its  estimate for Brazilian soybean production to 95.5 million tonnes from the 94 million it estimated in December.

While Dec. 1 corn stocks were found to be larger than expected, ending stocks should fall even more than in the December projection, and were 50 million bushels below the average trade guess.

Ball said canola’s relative strength compared to soybeans was due to tighter fundamentals in canola and a weakening loonie.

Speculative funds have been playing a bigger role in soybeans than canola, so soybean prices have been more volatile than canola. Also, canola is relatively cheap compared to soybeans.

Wheat contracts fell a few cents, with world wheat ending stocks projected to rise more than expected, to 196 million bushels from 194.9.

Oil fell again, staying in the sub-$50 range, and U.S. stock markets fell again.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York down $2.29 to US$46.07 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US83.82 cents, down from 84.34 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.1930.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index settled 119.91 points lower, falling 0.83 percent, to 14,265.01.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 96.53 points, or 0.54 percent, to 17,640.84, the S&P 500 lost 16.55 points, or 0.81 percent, to 2,028.26 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 39.36 points, or 0.84 percent, to 4,664.71.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jan 2015    460.40    -5.60    -1.20%
Canola Mar 2015    446.60    -5.60    -1.24%
Canola May 2015    444.00    -4.60    -1.03%
Canola Jul 2015    441.90    -4.40    -0.99%
Canola Nov 2015    430.40    -4.10    -0.94%

Milling Wheat Mar 2015    217.00    -2.00    -0.91%
Milling Wheat May 2015    220.00    -2.00    -0.90%
Milling Wheat Jul 2015    222.00    -2.00    -0.89%

Durum Wheat Mar 2015    365.00    unch    0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2015    355.00    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2015    345.00    unch    0.00%

Barley Mar 2015    182.00    unch    0.00%
Barley May 2015    184.00    unch    0.00%
Barley Jul 2015    186.00    unch    0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Jan 2015    1013.5    -38    -3.61%
Soybeans Mar 2015    1016    -36.25    -3.44%
Soybeans May 2015    1021.75    -35.75    -3.38%
Soybeans Jul 2015    1026.75    -35.25    -3.32%
Soybeans Aug 2015    1025    -34    -3.21%
Soybeans Sep 2015    1007.75    -29.5    -2.84%

Soybean Meal Jan 2015    356.5    -7.3    -2.01%
Soybean Meal Mar 2015    341.2    -7.9    -2.26%
Soybean Meal May 2015    335.4    -8.7    -2.53%

Soybean Oil Jan 2015    32.45    -1.09    -3.25%
Soybean Oil Mar 2015    32.6    -1.08    -3.21%
Soybean Oil May 2015    32.75    -1.08    -3.19%

Corn Mar 2015    402    +1.75    +0.44%
Corn May 2015    410    +1.75    +0.43%
Corn Jul 2015    416.75    +2.25    +0.54%
Corn Sep 2015    420.5    +3.5    +0.84%
Corn Dec 2015    426    +4.5    +1.07%

Oats Mar 2015    298.25    -5    -1.65%
Oats May 2015    300.25    -4    -1.31%
Oats Jul 2015    305.25    -3    -0.97%

Oats Sep 2015    306.5    unch    0.00%
Oats Dec 2015    303.75    -0.5    -0.16%

Wheat Mar 2015    555.5    -8.25    -1.46%
Wheat May 2015    560    -7.75    -1.37%
Wheat Jul 2015    564.75    -7.75    -1.35%
Wheat Sep 2015    571.25    -7.75    -1.34%
Wheat Dec 2015    582.25    -7.5    -1.27%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2015    595.25    -8    -1.33%
Spring Wheat May 2015    602.5    -7.25    -1.19%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015    609.75    -6.75    -1.09%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015    616.5    -6    -0.96%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015    625.25    -7    -1.11%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015    590.5    -10    -1.67%
Hard Red Wheat May 2015    595.5    -9.75    -1.61%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015    600.25    -9    -1.48%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015    610.5    -9.5    -1.53%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015    624.75    -8.5    -1.34%