Canola stays up, but victory likely fleeting

Canola prices didn’t fall Monday.

That was a relief for anyone long canola and happy to avoid the slide in soybeans and other North American crop futures.

But broker Ken Ball of P.I. Financial cautioned that canola’s strength isn’t likely to withstand more down days in soybeans.

“Canola refused to follow the market down today. It’ll do that from time to time,” said Ball.

“I don’t think it’ll be able to do it for long.”

Soybean futures fell almost 20 cents in nearby months while most wheat contracts fell 12-13 cents per bushel. Oats fell slightly while soybean oil — usually canola’s pathfinder — fell too.

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But March canola rose 50 cents per tonne and May rose 90 cents as few speculators stepped in to push canola down with soybeans or soybean oil.

Across-the-board weakness in the big three U.S. crops was attributed by some to weakening export demand, the prospect of better Brazilian soybean exports than expected and wheat crop conditions that weren’t as bad as some expected.

Thick snow has fallen in some parts of the western Midwest and the southern Plains, so worries about those regions’ suffering and exposed winter wheat crops have been somewhat alleviated.

WTI oil was floating near the $50 per barrel level mid-Monday afternoon.

U.S. stock markets had a joyful day, with the Dow 30 up almost 150 points. The NASDAQ briefly attained the 5,000 mark Monday, something it hasn’t done since the Dotcom bubble.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 17 cents to US$49.59 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US79.78 cents, down from US79.95 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2535.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Mar 2015    461.80    +0.50    +0.11%
Canola May 2015    470.20    +0.90    +0.19%
Canola Jul 2015    469.90    +1.40    +0.30%
Canola Nov 2015    459.00    +0.40    +0.09%
Canola Jan 2016    460.60    -0.10    -0.02%

Milling Wheat Mar 2015    219.00    -1.00    -0.45%
Milling Wheat May 2015    227.00    -3.00    -1.30%
Milling Wheat Jul 2015    230.00    -3.00    -1.29%

Durum Wheat Mar 2015    333.00    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2015    323.00    unch    0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2015    313.00    unch    0.00%

Barley Mar 2015    180.00    unch    0.00%
Barley May 2015    182.00    unch    0.00%
Barley Jul 2015    184.00    unch    0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Mar 2015    1011.25    -19.5    -1.89%
Soybeans May 2015    1013.75    -18    -1.74%
Soybeans Jul 2015    1017.75    -17    -1.64%

Soybeans Aug 2015    1015.25    -15.75    -1.53%
Soybeans Sep 2015    998.25    -13.75    -1.36%
Soybeans Nov 2015    985.25    -12.25    -1.23%

Soybean Meal Mar 2015    344.3    -9.4    -2.66%
Soybean Meal May 2015    333.5    -8.9    -2.60%
Soybean Meal Jul 2015    330.8    -8.2    -2.42%

Soybean Oil Mar 2015    32.65    -0.15    -0.46%
Soybean Oil May 2015    32.83    -0.12    -0.36%
Soybean Oil Jul 2015    33    -0.11    -0.33%

Corn Mar 2015    378.75    -5.75    -1.50%
Corn May 2015    388    -5.25    -1.34%
Corn Jul 2015    396.25    -5    -1.25%
Corn Sep 2015    403.5    -4.75    -1.16%
Corn Dec 2015    413.25    -4.25    -1.02%

Oats Mar 2015    289.75    -0.75    -0.26%
Oats May 2015    278    -0.25    -0.09%
Oats Jul 2015    277    -1.5    -0.54%
Oats Sep 2015    281    -1.75    -0.62%
Oats Dec 2015    284.5    -1.25    -0.44%

Wheat Mar 2015    508    -9.5    -1.84%
Wheat May 2015    500    -13    -2.53%
Wheat Jul 2015    504    -12.75    -2.47%
Wheat Sep 2015    512.25    -12.75    -2.43%
Wheat Dec 2015    526.5    -12    -2.23%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2015    546.25    -9.75    -1.75%
Spring Wheat May 2015    555.25    -11.25    -1.99%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015    561.5    -11    -1.92%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015    568.25    -11    -1.90%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015    578.5    -11.75    -1.99%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015    521    -13.5    -2.53%
Hard Red Wheat May 2015    525.75    -13.75    -2.55%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015    532.75    -13.25    -2.43%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015    545.5    -13.25    -2.37%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015    561.75    -12.25    -2.13%

Contact ed.white@producer.com