Canola shuffles higher with support from falling loonie, crop concerns

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Published: July 22, 2015

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The weaker Canadian dollar and concerns about the size of the Canadian canola crop helped canola futures edge higher for a second day, even though U.S. crop futures generally were lower.

The Canadian dollar fell below US77 cents, a six-year low.

The CWB prairie crop tour is in its second day. It winds up on Friday and will produce production estimates for canola, wheat and other crops.

Canola is suffering under hot temperatures this week. Although there could always be thunderstorms, it looks like the next chance for a wide spread rain is early next week with Saskatchewan’s northern grain belt and Manitoba the most likely to get rain.

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Soybean futures were mixed. The nearby contract firmed on support from strength in the cash market, where farmer selling has dried up, causing processors to boost their bids.

Deferred soybean contracts fell on improving crop conditions as fields in the eastern Midwest dried out.

“There is generally a favorable weather forecast and stable crop conditions holding yield potential a little higher than the market thought a few weeks ago, Greg Grow, director of agribusiness at Archer Financial Services, told Reuters.

Corn futures fell, pressured by good weather for crop development across the U.S. Midwest, Reuters reported.

The benign conditions also weighed on wheat, which eased as the pace of harvest in eastern growing areas increased.

Corn around the Midwest was passing through its yield-determining pollination phase in near ideal conditions in many areas, with mild temperatures putting little stress on the crop.

“The lack of more notable heat will keep crop development favorable in all but far southwest sections of the belt,” forecaster Commodity Weather Group said in a note.

The front-month Chicago wheat contract, which has fallen for seven days in a row, hit its lowest since June 25.

“The good weather prospects in the United States grain belts are again dominating the wheat and corn markets today, continuing the recent price weakness,” said Frank Rijkers, agrifood economist at ABN AMRO Bank.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.67 to US$49.19 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.77cents, down from 77.15 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3026.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index finished down 69.12 points, or 0.48 percent, at 14,307.12.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 68.25 points, or 0.38 percent, to 17,851.04, the S&P 500 lost 5.06 points, or 0.24 percent, to 2,114.15 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 36.35 points, or 0.7 percent, to 5,171.77.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2015   520.80   +1.00   +0.19%

Canola Jan 2016   521.20   +0.70   +0.13%

Canola Mar 2016   518.00   +0.60   +0.12%

Canola May 2016   514.00   +0.70   +0.14%

Canola Jul 2016   508.00   +0.40   +0.08%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 2015   225.00   -3.00   -1.32%

Milling Wheat Dec 2015   225.00   -3.00   -1.32%

Milling Wheat Mar 2016   229.00   -3.00   -1.29%

 

Durum Wheat Oct 2015   335.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2015   345.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2016   360.00   unch   0.00%

 

Barley Oct 2015   217.40   unch   0.00%

Barley Dec 2015   218.10   unch   0.00%

Barley Mar 2016   220.10   unch   0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Aug 2015   1020.75   +2   +0.20%

Soybeans Sep 2015   999.5   -7   -0.70%

Soybeans Nov 2015   995.5   -9.25   -0.92%

Soybeans Jan 2016   1001   -9.75   -0.96%

Soybeans Mar 2016   994.5   -10.25   -1.02%

Soybeans May 2016   985   -10.25   -1.03%

 

Soybean Meal Aug 2015  363.5   +3.6   +1.00%

Soybean Meal Sep 2015   353.2   +1.6   +0.46%

Soybean Meal Oct 2015   345.3   -0.6   -0.17%

 

Soybean Oil Aug 2015   31.35   -0.58   -1.82%

Soybean Oil Sep 2015   31.42   -0.6   -1.87%

Soybean Oil Oct 2015   31.51   -0.61   -1.90%

 

Corn Sep 2015   402.75   -3.75   -0.92%

Corn Dec 2015   413.5   -4   -0.96%

Corn Mar 2016   423.5   -4.25   -0.99%

Corn May 2016   429.25   -4.5   -1.04%

Corn Jul 2016   433.75   -4.75   -1.08%

 

Oats Sep 2015   236.25   -3.75   -1.56%

Oats Dec 2015   249   -4.25   -1.68%

Oats Mar 2016   260   -4.75   -1.79%

Oats May 2016   264.5   -3.25   -1.21%

Oats Jul 2016   265.5   -3.25   -1.21%

 

Wheat Sep 2015   516.75   -8   -1.52%

Wheat Dec 2015   524.5   -8.75   -1.64%

Wheat Mar 2016   531.75   -9.75   -1.80%

Wheat May 2016   536.5   -9.75   -1.78%

Wheat Jul 2016   538.75   -9   -1.64%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 2015   548   -8.5   -1.53%

Spring Wheat Dec 2015   565.25   -9.25   -1.61%

Spring Wheat Mar 2016   580.75   -9.25   -1.57%

Spring Wheat May 2016   591   -9   -1.50%

Spring Wheat Jul 2016   598.25   -7.25   -1.20%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015   512.25   -5.75   -1.11%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015   532.25   -5.5   -1.02%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016   546.75   -5.25   -0.95%

Hard Red Wheat May 2016   555.5   -5.25   -0.94%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016   562.75   -4.25   -0.75%

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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