Canola rises on oversold sentiment

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Published: May 28, 2014

Canola regained some of the ground lost Tuesday as the market thought the fall was overdone.

Bargain buying appeared on thoughts that canola is very under-priced relative to its components and to competing oilseeds.

Gains were limited by thoughts that seeding is progressing in Western Canada, although there are rain delays in various places. Today, rain is moving though Albert toward Saskatchewan and later today there are chances for thunderstorms in southwestern Saskatchewan, spreading into central Saskatchewan tonight.

July canola closed at $466.50, up $7.10 and November closed at $469.80, up $7.70.

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Lentil prices on the Canadian Prairies eased back during the week ended July 28, said Levon Sargsyan, broker with Johnston’s Grain. Sargsyan noted that’s due to the recent rains that brought relief to some of the dry areas of the region.

Soybeans and corn rose a little, but soy oil was down. All major wheat contracts fell.

Traders are trying to learn how American crushers will run operations to account for very tight old crop stocks in the U.S. Two cargoes of Brazilian soybean arrived in the U.S. on the week, Reuters reported.

Soy oil was down on weaker palm oil and worries that Argentina might expand exports of soy products.

Wheat drifted lower again on thoughts that the world is well supplied with the grain.

With two trading days left, Chicago wheat is on pace to fall 10 percent this month.

Russian farmers in the southern district, a key export region near the Black Sea, were hoping for rain this week after unseasonably warm weather last week.

It appears there have been some showers but not significant accumulations, according to maps from the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies.

The run up in feed barley prices in southern Alberta appears to have ended. Alberta Canola Growers daily cash report says the elevator price in Lethbridge had fallen to $175.91 per tonne, down from $188.90 May 16.

The Lethbridge feedlot price for the week of May 19 was a range of $205-$213, down from $213-$220 the week of May 12.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Jul 2014       466.50       +7.10       +1.55%

Canola Nov 2014       469.80       +7.70       +1.67%

Canola Jan 2015       474.70       +7.90       +1.69%

Canola Mar 2015       476.90       +8.60       +1.84%

Canola May 2015       478.50       +9.00       +1.92%

 

Milling Wheat Jul 2014       218.00      unch      0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014       218.00      unch      0.00%

Milling Wheat Dec 2014       222.00      unch      0.00%

 

Durum Wheat Jul 2014       252.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014       243.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2014       245.00       unch       0.00%

 

Barley Jul 2014       150.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Oct 2014       150.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Dec 2014       152.00       unch       0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2014       1497.75       +9       +0.60%

Soybeans Aug 2014       1428.25       +9.5       +0.67%

Soybeans Sep 2014       1294.75       +3.25       +0.25%

Soybeans Nov 2014       1243       +4.25       +0.34%

Soybeans Jan 2015       1248.5       +4.25       +0.34%

Soybeans Mar 2015       1252       +4.25       +0.34%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 2014       498.5       +4.3       +0.87%

Soybean Meal Aug 2014       471.2       +4.8       +1.03%

Soybean Meal Sep 2014       434.4       +3.8       +0.88%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 2014       39.63       -0.31       -0.78%

Soybean Oil Aug 2014       39.7       -0.29       -0.73%

Soybean Oil Sep 2014       39.75       -0.29       -0.72%

 

Corn Jul 2014       472.5       +2.75       +0.59%

Corn Sep 2014       469.25       +3       +0.64%

Corn Dec 2014       469.5       +3.75       +0.81%

Corn Mar 2015       478.75       +4       +0.84%

Corn May 2015       485       +3.75       +0.78%

 

Oats Jul 2014       349.75       +10       +2.94%

Oats Sep 2014       338.75       +9       +2.73%

Oats Dec 2014       327.5       +1.75       +0.54%

Oats Mar 2015       323.75       +1.5       +0.47%

Oats May 2015       319.75       +1.5       +0.47%

 

Wheat Jul 2014       638.75       -2.25       -0.35%

Wheat Sep 2014       650.5       -2.5       -0.38%

Wheat Dec 2014       670       -2.5       -0.37%

Wheat Mar 2015       686.75       -2.75       -0.40%

Wheat May 2015       694.5       -3       -0.43%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2014       718       -0.5       -0.07%

Spring Wheat Sep 2014       725.75       -0.25       -0.03%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014       735       -0.5       -0.07%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015       742.5       -0.75       -0.10%

Spring Wheat May 2015       746.5       -0.75       -0.10%

 

Kansas City

KC HRW Wheat Jul 2014       736       -2.25       -0.30%

KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014       743.5       -1.75       -0.23%

KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014       755.5       -0.75       -0.10%

KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015       760       -0.75       -0.10%

KC HRW Wheat May 2015       758.25       -0.5       -0.07%

 

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $1.39 at $102.72 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 92.02 cents US, up slightly from 92 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0867 Cdn.

Canadian stocks were trading lower on weaker commodity prices and on a decline in Valeant Pharmaceutical International shares.

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite index fell 47.06 points or 0.32 percent to 14,610.96.

U.S. stocks were little changed, with the broad based S&P 500 near its record high.

The down was down 42.45 points or 0.25 percent at 16,633.05.

The S&P 500 was down 2.13 points or 0.11 percent at 1,909.78.

The Nasdaq was down 11.99 points or 0.28 percent at 4,225.08.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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