Canola rises on falling loonie

Crops closed mixed Friday, ending a tumultuous week that fortunately did not contain a cascading collapse of all markets.

For a few days, fear if not quite panic gripped equity markets as China’s financial situation seemed to be coming apart, spurring losses in commodities and volatility in currency crosses.

But stock markets bounced back from mid-week and commodity markets settled out. Crop futures were never the main show in the commodity reaction to the stock market turmoil, with oil showing the greatest twitchiness, dropping below $40 per barrel before bouncing back up.

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Canola benefitted Friday from a falling Canadian dollar, with November futures rising $4.90 per tonne to $477.70 and January by $4.70 to $482.10.

Soybean oil also helped drive canola prices higher with the vegetable oil surging over three percent.

Soybeans rose less than one percent while soybean meal slightly fell.

Wheat prices fell slightly and corn prices rose slightly.

The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association reported slightly higher canola crushings in the week ending Aug. 26 than the week before but an overall lower year-to-date crush than in 2014-15. Last year the crushers were running at about 78 percent capacity but this year have been running at less than 66 percent.

The COPA canola crush board margin shows crushers operating at losses now, so there is not much incentive to push production. U.S. soybean margins are still positive, so that crop is being affected by a bigger demand-pull from buyers.

While crop markets showed some resiliency this week in the face of the pandemonium in stock and currency markets, few analysts think the downside pressure is gone yet. Harvest pressure is only beginning to tickle the underside of the market, and there is still lots of time for big crops to come in.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $2.66 to US$45.22 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.36 cents, down from 75.77 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3269.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2015   477.70   +4.90   +1.04%
Canola Jan 2016   482.10   +4.70   +0.98%
Canola Mar 2016   486.10   +4.50   +0.93%
Canola May 2016   485.90   +3.90   +0.81%
Canola Jul 2016   485.10   +4.10   +0.85%

Milling Wheat Oct 2015   225.00   -1.00   -0.44%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015   225.00   -1.00   -0.44%
Milling Wheat Mar 2016   229.00   -1.00   -0.43%

Durum Wheat Oct 2015   335.00   unch   0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015   335.00   unch   0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2016   340.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Oct 2015   191.90   unch   0.00%
Barley Dec 2015   191.90   unch   0.00%
Barley Mar 2016   193.90   unch   0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2015   893.25   +7   +0.79%
Soybeans Nov 2015   885.5   +6.5   +0.74%
Soybeans Jan 2016   890.75   +7   +0.79%
Soybeans Mar 2016   892.25   +7.25   +0.82%
Soybeans May 2016   895   +7   +0.79%
Soybeans Jul 2016   898.5   +6.75   +0.76%

Soybean Meal Sep 2015   321.4   -1.5   -0.46%
Soybean Meal Oct 2015   315.4   -1.9   -0.60%
Soybean Meal Dec 2015   312.7   -2.3   -0.73%

Soybean Oil Sep 2015   27.79   +0.9   +3.35%
Soybean Oil Oct 2015   27.92   +0.92   +3.41%
Soybean Oil Dec 2015   28.17   +0.93   +3.41%

Corn Sep 2015   363.25   -0.5   -0.14%
Corn Dec 2015   375   unch   0.00%
Corn Mar 2016   386.5   +0.25   +0.06%
Corn May 2016   393   +0.25   +0.06%
Corn Jul 2016   397.5   +0.5   +0.13%

Oats Sep 2015   234.5   +17.5   +8.06%
Oats Dec 2015   228.5   +6.5   +2.93%
Oats Mar 2016   228   +6.75   +3.05%
Oats May 2016   234   +6.5   +2.86%
Oats Jul 2016   235   +6.5   +2.84%

Wheat Sep 2015 477 -7.25 -1.50%
Wheat Dec 2015 483.75 -6 -1.23%

Wheat Mar 2016   491.75   -6   -1.21%
Wheat May 2016   497   -6   -1.19%
Wheat Jul 2016   501.25   -5.5   -1.09%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2015   490.5   -4   -0.81%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015   511.5   -2   -0.39%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016   529   -2   -0.38%
Spring Wheat May 2016   540.5   -1.75   -0.32%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016   551.25   -1.75   -0.32%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015   457.75   -6.75   -1.45%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015   483.5   -4.75   -0.97%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016   497.75   -5   -0.99%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016   507.75   -4.75   -0.93%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016   517.75   -4.75   -0.91%