Canola rose Thursday on the Statistics Canada report that showed farmers expect to seed a surprisingly small canola acreage and on technical factors.
StatsCan’s farmer survey showed canola planting intentions at 19.801 million acres, versus trade expectations for 21.1 million acres.
It would be the third largest area ever, following the record of 22 million set in 2012 and last year’s 19.935 million.
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The StatsCan report showed farmers intend to seed less wheat, canola and barley and more peas, lentils, flax and soybeans.
Canola gained technical strength when the May contract bounced back off the $445 mark. Slightly stronger soybeans and soy oil, lifted by bargain buying, also supported canola.
Although the somewhat bullish StatsCan report was about new crop, it was old crop May that rose the most, closing at $452.40, up $6.60. November closed at $473.60, up $3.70.
More on the StatsCan report later.
Wheat rose on rising tensions in Ukraine and a U.S. drought map that shows dryness still grips western regions of the southern plains. Rain in the past few days was centered in eastern Nebraska, northern Kansas and southeastern Oklahoma. Western parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas got little relief from the drought.
Corn fell on profit taking. Weekly export sales were in line with expectations.
Losses in corn were limited by concerns about the slow start to seeding in the Midwest. A lot of rain is expected over the next five days in the Midwest.
Word from Europe is that the canola crop there is doing well and production should top last year’s crop, although the increase is unlikely to be great.
The harvest is forecast reach 21.09 million tonnes, up from 20.84 million in 2013, according to German trading house Toepfer International. French consultancy ODA sees 21.35 million tonnes and Strategie Grains 21.55 million.
Winter rapeseed in Europe is now flowering, about two weeks ahead of normal.
The Indian Meteorological Department’s first monsoon forecast for the year issued today was in line with the outlook of the World Meteorological Organization that predicted mostly below-average rains in much of South Asia, including India.
If it turns out true, it could lead to good demand for the large pulse crop expected from Canada.
Also supporting lentil prices are signs that drought and spring frost in Turkey could have harmed lentils there.
Turning back to the StatsCan report, the survey showed another big increase in expected soybean acreage on the Prairies.
It sees Manitoba soybean area climbing to 1.3 million acres, up 24 percent.
Saskatchewan seeded area is seen climbing to 300,000 acres, a 76 percent increase.
Manitoba’s corn areas are seen falling to 300,000 acres, down from 380,000 last year.
Manitoba’s sunflower area is seen climbing to 125,000 acres, up from 70,000 last year.
The decline in canola area is a Saskatchewan event. Farmers there said they’d drop area to 10.3 million acres, from 10.5 million last year.
Alberta expects a 100,000 acre increase to 6.18 million while Manitoba growers expect to keep their number about steady at 3.15 million.
Canadian spring wheat area is expected to fall 5.6 percent to 17.978 million acres, and durum is expected to fall 2.7 percent to 4.835 million.
Barley area is expected to fall almost 11 percent to 6.311 million acres.
Oats will likely change only a little, rising 0.6 percent to 3.188 million aces, while flax is expected to soar almost 66 percent to 1.715 million acres.
Summerfallow is expected to be a record low of 3.37 million acres.
The survey was conducted March 24-31 with about 11,500 farmers.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 452.40Â Â Â Â Â Â +6.60Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.48%
Canola Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 460.10Â Â Â Â Â Â +5.40Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.19%
Canola Nov 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 473.60Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.70Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.79%
Canola Jan 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 480.40Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.50Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.73%
Canola Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 486.70Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.40Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.70%
Milling Wheat May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 222.00Â Â Â Â Â Â +5.00Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.30%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 221.00Â Â Â Â Â Â +5.00Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.31%
Milling Wheat Oct 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 223.00Â Â Â Â Â Â +5.00Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.29%
Â
Durum Wheat May 2014      250.00      unch      0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014      250.00      unch      0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2014      252.00      unch      0.00%
Barley May 2014      139.50      unch      0.00%
Barley Jul 2014      140.50      unch      0.00%
Barley Oct 2014      140.50      unch      0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 1472Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.24%
Soybeans Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 1470Â Â Â Â Â Â +5.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.36%
Soybeans Aug 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 1409.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +9Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.64%
Soybeans Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 1290.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +4.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.37%
Soybeans Nov 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 1231Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.29%
Soybeans Jan 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 1236.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.30%
Soybean Meal May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 480.2Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.1Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.44%
Soybean Meal Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 470.7Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.7Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.36%
Soybean Meal Aug 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 446.4Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.8Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.63%
Soybean Oil May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 42.59Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.09Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.21%
Soybean Oil Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 42.86Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.08Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.19%
Soybean Oil Aug 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 42.8Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.11Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.26%
Corn May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 501.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.45%
Corn Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 507.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.44%
Corn Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 505Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.44%
Corn Dec 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 502.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.35%
Corn Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 510.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.34%
Oats May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 401.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -7.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.77%
Oats Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 355.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -4.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.25%
Oats Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 347Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.75Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.50%
Oats Dec 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 336.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -1Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.30%
Oats Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 336.25Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.5Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.15%
Wheat May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 689Â Â Â Â Â Â +12.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.85%
Wheat Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 696.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +13.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.01%
Wheat Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 705.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +13.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.99%
Wheat Dec 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 719.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +14Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.98%
Wheat Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 732.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +14Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.95%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 736.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +12Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.66%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 739.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +12.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.75%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 746.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +12.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.70%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 757Â Â Â Â Â Â +13Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.75%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 766Â Â Â Â Â Â +14.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.90%
Kansas City
KC HRW Wheat May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 759.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +13.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.84%
KC HRW Wheat Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 765.5Â Â Â Â Â Â +15Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.00%
KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 771.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +14.25Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.88%
KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â 782Â Â Â Â Â Â +13.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.79%
KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015Â Â Â Â Â Â 785.75Â Â Â Â Â Â +14Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.81%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 50 cents at $101.94 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 90.69 cents US, up slightly from 90.65 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1027 Cdn.
Stock markets were supported by positive earnings reports from companies such as Apple, Microsoft and Potash Corp., but worries about the crisis in Ukraine limited gains.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose 20.86 points, or 0.14 percent, at 14,554.25.
The Dow Jones industrial average remained unchanged to close at 16,501.65.
The S&P 500 gained 3.22 points or 0.17 percent, to 1,878.61.
The Nasdaq Composite added 21.372 points or 0.52 percent, to end at 4,148.338.
