Finally, a day of modest optimism in grain markets. Canola and other crop futures rose Tuesday on bargain buying and, in soybeans, firming U.S. cash markets.
Favourable weather in the U.S., with most of the Midwest expected to get rain over the next week, continued to limit gains.
Wheat was the strongest gainer on concerns about wheat quality in the U.S. soft red crop and Europe’s crop. Also, another forecaster dropped its outlook or Russian wheat crop to well below 50 million tonnes.
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And demand from China and Egypt supported the wheat market.
Canola was supported by ideas that the price is oversold, after falling more than 20 percent in July. It is now undervalued relative to soybeans.
Oilseeds were supported by another small gain in Malaysian palm oil, supported by trade stats that showed July shipments were a little stronger than June. Exports in July started slowly but surged late in the month.
Chicago wheat gained modestly in July, rising 2.3 percent compared to corn’s fall of 26.5 percent.
Weather concerns in the Black Sea region and rising export demand supported wheat, which might have risen more if not for corn’s fall.
“The world balance sheet for wheat is in a precarious position,” Ken Smithmier, analyst with the Hightower Group told Reuters. “With plenty of evidence to suggest additional cuts to world production and a bullish bias towards world demand, the upside for wheat looks exceptional once the market has more conviction as to the size of the U.S. corn crop.”
Crop forecaster Lanworth on Wednesday cut its forecast for Russian wheat production by three percent to 48.4 million tonnes.
USDA’s current outlook is 54 million tonnes.
Lanworth’s report was bearish corn, but slightly bullish soybeans.
It expects the 2013-14 U.S. corn crop to be 14 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 158.5 bu. per acre. It had previously forecast U.S. corn production of 13.65 billion bu.
USDA’s current outlook is 13.95 billion bu. and the yield is 156.5 bu. per acre.
Lanworth’s new estimate for world corn production is 965 million tonnes, up nine million from the outlook it issued two weeks ago.
USDA’s forecast is 959.84 million tonnes.
Lanworth trimmed its estimate of U.S. soybean production to 3.310 billion bu. from 3.315 billion, warning that the outlook was dependent on rainfall and temperatures during August.
USDA’s current U.S. soybean crop forecast is 3.42 billion.
Lanworth estimates for world wheat production and world soybean production were unchanged at 694 million tonnes and 283 million tonnes respectively.
USDA’s forecast for wheat is 697.8 million and for soybeans is 285.89 million.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 485.00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.20Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.46%
Canola Jan 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 489.00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.47%
Canola Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 492.30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.90Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.39%
Canola May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 494.80Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.10Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.43%
Canola Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 497.70Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.46%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013        254.00        unch        0.00%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013        257.00        unch        0.00%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014        264.00        unch        0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013        293.00        unch        0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013        297.00        unch        0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014        307.00        unch        0.00%
Barley Oct 2013        189.00        unch        0.00%
Barley Dec 2013        194.00        unch        0.00%
Barley Mar 2014        194.00        unch        0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Aug 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1374Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +24Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.78%
Soybeans Sep 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1249.75Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.75Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.06%
Soybeans Nov 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1206.25Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.25Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.27%
Soybeans Jan 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1211Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +3Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.25%
Soybeans Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1212.75Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.41%
Soybeans May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1212.75Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +5.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.46%
Soybean Meal Aug 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 435.1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +5.9Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.37%
Soybean Meal Sep 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 404Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.30%
Soybean Meal Oct 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 369.4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.22%
Soybean Oil Aug 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 42.09Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.02Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.05%
Soybean Oil Sep 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 42.27Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.03Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.07%
Soybean Oil Oct 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 42.41Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.02Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.05%
Corn Sep 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 499Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.71%
Corn Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 479Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.31%
Corn Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 491.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.25Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.25%
Corn May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 499.25Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.25Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.25%
Corn Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 505.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.20%
Oats Sep 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 340.25Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.25Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.67%
Oats Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 331.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.75Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.23%
Oats Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 336Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.25Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.37%
Oats May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 336.25Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.25Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.37%
Oats Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 341.25Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.25Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.37%
Wheat Sep 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 664.25Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +9Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.37%
Wheat Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 677Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +9.25Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.39%
Wheat Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 687.75Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +9.75Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.44%
Wheat May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 693Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +8.75Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.28%
Wheat Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 689Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.17%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 741.25Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.54%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 751Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.33%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 762.25Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.13%
Spring Wheat May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 770.25Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.25Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.16%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 777.75Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.75Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.35%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 706.75Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +10.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.51%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 717Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +8.75Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.24%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 725.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +8.25Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.15%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 726.75Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +7.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.04%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 714.75Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +6.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.92%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $1.95 at $105.03 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 97.21 cents US, up from 97.15 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0287 Cdn.
The United States Federal Reserve, after a two day monthly meeting, gave no new guidance about its plans regarding its bond buying stimulus program.
U.S. stock markets initially reacted favourably but closed mixed.
The Canadian economy grew by 0.2 percent in May from April, according to Statistics Canada data on Wednesday, below forecasts and dampening expectations for the second quarter.
The fifth consecutive monthly increase beat the 0.1 percent rate registered in April, but the median forecast in a Reuters survey was for 0.3 percent growth,
In early unofficial tallies —
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index fell 95.11 points, or 0.76 percent, to close at 12,486.64.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 21.05 points or 0.14 percent, to finish at 15,499.54, well off a record intraday high of 15,634.32.
The S&P 500 dipped 0.24 of a point, or 0.01 percent, to end at 1,685.72.
The Nasdaq Composite added 9.90 points or 0.27 percent, to close unofficially at 3,626.37.
