Canola rises, gaining $14 over the week

Oilseed futures waffled back and forth Friday and at the close canola futures were higher, but soybeans were lower.

Oilseed prices were supported by a USDA report that cut South American soybean production more than expected, but there was pressure from a private analyst’s forecast of increased U.S. corn and soybean seeding.

Canola also was supported by a rebound in domestic crusher activity last week.

May canola closed at $584.50 per tonne, up $3.90.

November closed at $544.00, up $2.50.

Over the week, the May contract rose $14 per tonne and the November contract gained $8.50.

The 14-day relative strength index for May canola is again above 80 percent, which is considered oversold.

• Private analyst Informa Economics raised its outlook for U.S. 2012 corn seeding to 95.513 million acres from its previous estimate of 94.748 million.

The firm also raised its forecast of U.S. 2012 soybean plantings, to 75.128 million acres from 74.568 million in January.

Informa projected U.S. 2012 all-wheat plantings at 57.745 million acres, down from 57.9 million previously.

• Global oilseed production for 2011-12 is projected at 445.7 million tonnes, down 6.7 million from last month, the USDA said today.

Brazil soybean production is forecast at 68.5 million tonnes, down 3.5 million, Argentina production was cut 1.5 million tonnes to 46.5 million and Paraguay production was pegged at five million tonnes, down 1.4 million. The Brazil and Argentina numbers were slightly lower than the average of traders’ expectations ahead of the USDA report.

However, the momentum the news generated was lessened by the fact that USDA does not see the cuts to South American production generating extra business for the U.S.

U.S. soybean exports were left unchanged at slightly more than three billion bushels. Year end stocks of U.S. soybeans were also unchanged.

• The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association reported that members crushed 144,697 tonnes of canola in the week ending March 7, rebounding almost 15 percent from the week before. That represented a capacity use of 87 percent, a little down from the year’s average of about 89 percent.

• Private forecaster Agritel today said the February freeze in France could reduce this year’s wheat harvest by 1.9 million tonnes, or about five percent of the initial crop potential.

It said that five percent of the national wheat area was lost and another 13 percent damaged.

The impact on the French rapeseed crop was seen at around 108,000 tonnes or two percent of the initial potential.

It said a lot of the damaged crop would likely be reseeded with spring barley, raising the potential of a larger EU malting barley crop.

• Stock markets were supported by a stronger than expected February jobs report in the U.S.

Canada’s February jobs report was disappointing, showing the economy lost jobs in the month.

Winnipeg (per tonne)

Canola Mar 12 $597.50, up $8.30 +1.41%

Canola May 12 $584.50, up $3.90 +0.67%

Canola Jul 12 $585.50, up $4.30 +0.74%

Canola Nov 12 $544.00, up $2.50 +0.46%

The previous day’s best canola basis was $6.60 over the May contract, according to ICE Futures Canada in Winnipeg.

The 14-day relative strength index was 82.

Western Barley Mar 12 $218.00, up $4.00 +1.87%

Western Barley May 12 $224.00, up $4.00 +1.82%

Milling Wht Oct 12 $260.50, unchanged

Milling Wht Dec 12 $265.50, unchanged

Milling Wht Mar 13 $270.50, unchanged

Durum Wht Oct 12 $265.50, unchanged

Durum Wht Dec 12 $270.00, unchanged

Durum Wht Mar 13 $276.60, unchanged

Barley Oct 12 $185.00, unchanged

Barley Dec 12 $188.50, unchanged

Barley Mar 13 $190.00, unchanged

Chicago (per bushel)

Soybeans Mar 12 $13.3175, down 0.75 cent -0.06%

Soybeans May 12 $13.3775, down 0.75 -0.06%

Soybeans Nov 12 $13.0525, up 5.75 +0.44%

Corn Mar 12 $6.54, up 9.0 +1.40%

Corn May 12 $6.45, up 9.5 +1.49%

Corn Dec 12 $5.625, up 5.25 +0.94%

Oats Mar 12 $3.11, down 1.5 -0.48%

Oats May 12 $2.875, down 0.25 -0.09%

Oats Dec 12 $2.945, down 5.5 -1.83%

Minneapolis (per bushel)

Spring Wht Mar 12 $8.0175, up 0.5 cent +0.06%

Spring Wht May 12 $8.05, up 1.5 +0.19%

Spring Wht Dec 12 $7.8775, up 4.75 +0.61%

The nearby New York light sweet crude contract rose 82 cents to $107.40.

The Canadian dollar at noon edged above par at $1.0106 US, up from 1.0080 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was 98.95 Cdn.

In an early tally, the Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index unofficially closed up 41.69 points, or 0.33 percent, at 12,503.62.

Unofficially, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 14.08 points, or 0.11 percent, to close at 12,922.02, the S&P 500 Index was up 4.96 points, or 0.36 percent, to close at 1,370.87. The Nasdaq Composite rose 17.92 points, or 0.60 percent, to 2,988.34.

For the week, the TSX fell about 1.1 percent, the Dow fell 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent and the Nasdaq gained 0.4 percent.