Canola futures on Wednesday added to the gains made Tuesday even with weaker U.S. soybean futures.
November canola closed at $465.10, up $3, bringing the two-day total to $10.60.
Support this week has come from ideas that recent weakness was overdone, slow farmer selling, worries about frost and the wet long weekend that delayed harvest progress in some places.
However, gains are limited as carry in stocks at the start of this crop year are significantly higher than expected.
Statistics Canada pegged canola stocks at the end of the 2014-15 crop year at 2.3 million tonnes, whereas the Agriculture Canada forecast for year-end stocks back at the beginning of June was for only 950,000 tonnes.
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Exports and domestic consumption were strong, so Statistics Canada must have under estimated the size of the 2014 crop and perhaps the size of previous crops.
The market had expected that ending stocks by the end of the 2015-16 crop year would be exceptionally tight at about 500,000 tonnes, providing good support for canola prices. However, with the larger carry in and worries about Chinese demand, worries about tight stocks have receded.
American soybean futures slipped, as the weekly crop condition rating from the USDA was unchanged. The trade had expected a one percentage point drop.
Traders are squaring positions ahead of Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.
Corn condition rating were also steady but corn futures edged higher for a third day as investors position for the USDA report which is expected to cut corn yield and production forecasts.
Also slow farmer selling was noted. Analysts think American farmers will hold back from the market this fall in the hope that prices might rally after the pressure from harvest fades.
Wheat also dipped on the strong American dollar and prospects of strong competition in the international marketplace.
The Indian monsoon continues to disappoint, raising the expectation of weaker yields in the summer crop and reservoir depletion, which would hurt the coming winter crop.
We report this week in the Western Producer that fall bookings for pulse exports from Canada are strong, supporting prices even as the onset on harvest would normally pressure Canadian pulse prices.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.79 to US$44.15 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.63 cents, down from 75.79 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3223.
Stock markets stepped back a little today after strong gains Tuesday. Weaker oil weighed on energy company share. Apple shares dipped after its new product launch in a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” reaction.
The TSX composite near the close was trading at 13,516.99, down 113.68 pr 0.83 percent.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 238.84 points, or 1.45 percent, to 16,253.84, the S&P 500 lost 27.32 points, or 1.39 percent, to 1,942.09 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 55.40 points, or 1.15 percent, to 4,756.53.
China’s finance ministry said it would strengthen fiscal policy, boost infrastructure spending and speed up tax reform, helping lift Chinese shares for a second day.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2015 465.10 +3.00 +0.65%
Canola Jan 2016 468.90 +2.70 +0.58%
Canola Mar 2016 472.70 +2.70 +0.57%
Canola May 2016 473.00 +2.50 +0.53%
Canola Jul 2016 472.90 +2.20 +0.47%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015 223.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015 223.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Mar 2016 227.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015 335.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015 335.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2016 340.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2015 184.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2015 184.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2016 186.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Sep 2015 882.75 -8 -0.90%
Soybeans Nov 2015 872.25 -7 -0.80%
Soybeans Jan 2016 876 -6.25 -0.71%
Soybeans Mar 2016 878.5 -5.5 -0.62%
Soybeans May 2016 880.5 -5.25 -0.59%
Soybeans Jul 2016 884.25 -4.75 -0.53%
Soybean Meal Sep 2015 312.5 +0.5 +0.16%
Soybean Meal Oct 2015 309.7 +0.1 +0.03%
Soybean Meal Dec 2015 308.3 -0.3 -0.10%
Soybean Oil Sep 2015 26.6 -0.25 -0.93%
Soybean Oil Oct 2015 26.68 -0.25 -0.93%
Soybean Oil Dec 2015 26.9 -0.27 -0.99%
Corn Sep 2015 356.5 +1.5 +0.42%
Corn Dec 2015 369 +0.75 +0.20%
Corn Mar 2016 380.25 +0.5 +0.13%
Corn May 2016 387.5 +0.75 +0.19%
Corn Jul 2016 392.5 +0.5 +0.13%
Oats Sep 2015 239.25 +5.75 +2.46%
Oats Dec 2015 233.25 +5.75 +2.53%
Oats Mar 2016 233 +6 +2.64%
Oats May 2016 234.5 +3.25 +1.41%
Oats Jul 2016 235.5 +3.25 +1.40%
Wheat Sep 2015 462 -3.25 -0.70%
Wheat Dec 2015 472.25 -2.75 -0.58%
Wheat Mar 2016 480.25 -2.75 -0.57%
Wheat May 2016 485.5 -2.5 -0.51%
Wheat Jul 2016 490.25 -2.25 -0.46%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 488.25 +2.25 +0.46%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 505.25 +0.25 +0.05%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 520 -0.5 -0.10%
Spring Wheat May 2016 530.75 -1 -0.19%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016 541 -0.5 -0.09%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 448.25 -3.75 -0.83%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 472.5 -4.5 -0.94%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 486.25 -4.75 -0.97%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016 496 -4.75 -0.95%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 505.5 -4.5 -0.88%
