Canola rises again with support from soybeans

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Published: October 23, 2014

Canola rose along with U.S. soybeans and corn on Thursday, supported by larger than expected U.S. soybean weekly exports.

U.S. soybeans were a better-than-expected 2.167 million tonnes. Corn export sales were 1.031 million tonnes, also above market expectations.

Canola showed signs of technical strength, prompting additional buying, but farmer selling held gains in check.

The Saskatchewan crop report said the province’s canola harvest is 97 percent complete.

Canola lagged the gains in soybeans, which rose more than three percent, with gains accelerating after it pushed past the 50 day-moving average.

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Canola was up about one percent. Nearby soy oil rose 1.65 percent while soy meal rose 4.35 percent.

Soybean’s strength helped pull corn higher, climbing 1.9 percent in the nearby contract and corn’s rise helped nudge wheat higher, with all three U.S. contracts rising less than one percent.

Grains in wheat were limited by word from Argentina that the government has authorized additional exports of 400,000 tonnes. The expanded quota might be in response to ideas that neighbouring Brazil will need to import more wheat because of quality problems.

Soy seeding in Brazil is only 10 percent complete, the slowest start since 2008-09, according to local consultancy Ag Rural.

Dry weather is behind the delay, but the forecast is for widespread rain next week.

Argentina has now started seeding its soy crop. The government expects farmers to plant 50.2 million acres, up from 48.9 million last year.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange issued its first estimate of the 2014-15 crop, forecasting 11.5 million tonnes up from 10.1 million last year. That compares to U.S. Department of Agriculture estimate of 12 million tonnes.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $1.57 to $82.09 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 88.99 cents US, down from 89.13 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1237 Cdn.

Stock markets rose, with U.S. indexes buoyed by strong results from Caterpillar and 3M Co.

A private survey, the flash HSBC/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), showed China’s factory sector grew a touch faster in October, but not enough to change ideas that China’s growth is slowing.

The stronger oil price supported the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index. It rose 174.76 points or 1.22 percent to 14,486.83.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 216.58 points, or 1.32 percent, to 16,677.9, the S&P 500 gained 23.71 points, or 1.23 percent, to 1,950.82 and the Nasdaq Composite added 69.95 points, or 1.6 percent, to 4,452.79.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2014     418.70     +3.80      +0.92%

Canola Jan 2015      421.30     +4.20      +1.01%

Canola Mar 2015      425.10     +3.20      +0.76%

Canola May 2015     428.20     +3.20      +0.75%

Canola Jul 2015       429.30     +3.20      +0.75%

 

Milling Wheat Dec 2014    226.00     +1.00    

Milling Wheat Mar 2015    231.00     +1.00    

Milling Wheat May 2015    234.00     +1.00    

 

Durum Wheat Dec 2014   356.50     unch0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2015   357.50     unch0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2015   357.50     unch0.00%

 

Barley Dec 2014      137.00     +7.00    

Barley Mar 2015      140.00     +7.00    

Barley May 2015      140.00     +7.00    

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 2014993.25     +30.5      +3.17%

Soybeans Jan 2015  1000       +30.25     +3.12%

Soybeans Mar 20151006.5     +29.5      +3.02%

Soybeans May 20151012.5     +27.75     +2.82%

Soybeans Jul 2015   1017.5     +26.5      +2.67%

Soybeans Aug 20151017.75   +19.25     +1.93%

 

Soybean Meal Dec 2014  352.4      +14.4      +4.26%

Soybean Meal Jan 2015   342  +12  +3.64%

Soybean Meal Mar 2015   332.6      +11.1      +3.45%

 

Soybean Oil Dec 2014     32.67      +0.53      +1.65%

Soybean Oil Jan 2015      32.92      +0.52      +1.60%

Soybean Oil Mar 2015      33.17      +0.51      +1.56%

 

Corn Dec 2014359.75     +6.75      +1.91%

Corn Mar 2015373.5      +6.5+1.77%

Corn May 2015382  +6    +1.60%

Corn Jul 2015  389.5      +6.25      +1.63%

Corn Sep 2015396.5      +6.25      +1.60%

 

Oats Dec 2014360.5      +6.5+1.84%

Oats Mar 2015348  +7.5+2.20%

Oats May 2015339.5      +6    +1.80%

Oats Jul 2015  329  +4.25      +1.31%

Oats Sep 2015332  +3.25      +0.99%

 

Wheat Dec 2014     526.75     +4.5+0.86%

Wheat Mar 2015      540.25     +4.25      +0.79%

Wheat May 2015     548  +4.25      +0.78%

Wheat Jul 2015       555.25     +5.5+1.00%

Wheat Sep 2015      564.75     +5.25      +0.94%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 2014   571  +2.25      +0.40%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015   580.25     +2    +0.35%

Spring Wheat May 2015   587.75     +2.25      +0.38%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015     595.5      +2    +0.34%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015   603.5      +2.5+0.42%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014      605.25     unch0.00%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015       607.75     +1.5+0.25%

Hard Red Wheat May 2015      607.25     +2.25      +0.37%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015600  +3    +0.50%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015      611.5      +3    +0.49%

 

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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