Today’s USDA monthly supply and demand report came in as the trade expected, but the reminder of large crops on the way proved negative for corn and wheat futures.
Canola again edged higher and is now near a three month high with support from the delayed harvest in western Canada. About 20 percent of the canola crop is not yet in the bin.
Although most of it will likely be harvested before the full force of winter hits, there is a risk.
There is the potential for more rain in central Saskatchewan on Friday.
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Manitoba and Saskatchewan could get moisture on Sunday causing further delays.
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USDA raised its forecast of soybean yield and trimmed its corn yield forecast but the moves were largely expected.
The USDA increased its estimate of 2016-17 year end wheat stocks for both the U.S. and world. The move was expected and its numbers were within the range of analyst’s forecasts.
Nevertheless, the reminder of big stocks caused wheat futures to fall.
It was a similar story in corn, with the USDA’s numbers close to analysts’ expectations, but in the end, the reminder of the big corn crop caused the futures price to fall two percent or more.
The market will closely watch the weekly export numbers from the USDA to see if the robust demand registered so far this crop year continues.
Crude oil fell. Although there are hopes that OPEC and other producers will agree to trim production, data released today on last month’s production showed OPEC increased production in September. Separate weekly data on U.S. petroleum stocks showed an increase for the first time in six weeks.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 61 cents to US$50.18 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.32 cents, down from 75.53 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3277.
Minutes released on the last U.S. Federal Reserve meeting provided little additional guidance on the likelihood of an interest rate increase in December. That helped gold and gold mining stocks rise.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 69.37 points, or 0.48 percent, at 14,618.97.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 15.54 points, or 0.09 percent, to 18,144.2, the S&P 500 gained 2.45 points, or 0.11 percent, to 2,139.18 and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 7.77 points, or 0.15 percent, to 5,239.02.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2016 474.50 +0.50 +0.11%
Canola Jan 2017 482.10 +0.70 +0.15%
Canola Mar 2017 487.30 +0.40 +0.08%
Canola May 2017 491.80 +0.30 +0.06%
Canola Jul 2017 493.00 -0.10 -0.02%
Milling Wheat Dec 2016 229.00 -1.00 -0.43%
Milling Wheat Mar 2017 233.00 -1.00 -0.43%
Milling Wheat May 2017 236.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2016 288.00 +6.00 +2.13%
Durum Wheat Mar 2017 296.00 +7.00 +2.42%
Durum Wheat May 2017 300.00 +7.00 +2.39%
Barley Dec 2016 132.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2017 134.50 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2017 135.50 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2016 945.50 -8.75 -0.92%
Soybeans Jan 2017 953.50 -8.25 -0.86%
Soybeans Mar 2017 960.25 -8.00 -0.83%
Soybeans May 2017 967.25 -7.75 -0.79%
Soybeans Jul 2017 973.00 -7.75 -0.79%
Soybeans Aug 2017 972.25 -7.75 -0.79%
Soybean Meal Oct 2016 294.50 -3.10 -1.04%
Soybean Meal Dec 2016 296.50 -3.80 -1.27%
Soybean Meal Jan 2017 297.80 -3.80 -1.26%
Soybean Oil Oct 2016 33.14 -0.02 -0.06%
Soybean Oil Dec 2016 33.34 -0.01 -0.03%
Soybean Oil Jan 2017 33.63 unch 0.00%
Corn Dec 2016 337.00 -8.50 -2.46%
Corn Mar 2017 347.00 -8.25 -2.32%
Corn May 2017 353.75 -8.00 -2.21%
Corn Jul 2017 360.50 -8.00 -2.17%
Corn Sep 2017 367.75 -7.75 -2.06%
Oats Dec 2016 198.00 -1.00 -0.50%
Oats Mar 2017 200.00 -1.00 -0.50%
Oats May 2017 203.25 -1.00 -0.49%
Oats Jul 2017 206.25 unch 0.00%
Oats Sep 2017 215.25 -4.25 -1.94%
Wheat Dec 2016 396.75 -10.50 -2.58%
Wheat Mar 2017 416.50 -8.50 -2.00%
Wheat May 2017 430.00 -8.00 -1.83%
Wheat Jul 2017 442.00 -7.75 -1.72%
Wheat Sep 2017 457.25 -7.25 -1.56%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2016 521.75 -2.50 -0.48%
Spring Wheat Mar 2017 522.50 -4.00 -0.76%
Spring Wheat May 2017 527.50 -4.00 -0.75%
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 534.75 -3.50 -0.65%
Spring Wheat Sep 2017 543.00 -3.00 -0.55%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 398.50 -7.75 -1.91%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 415.25 -7.75 -1.83%
Hard Red Wheat May 2017 425.75 -7.50 -1.73%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 436.25 -7.50 -1.69%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 451.25 -7.50 -1.63%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Oct 2016 96.75 -0.75 -0.77%
Live Cattle (P) Dec 2016 98.00 -1.10 -1.11%
Live Cattle (P) Feb 2017 99.52 -1.03 -1.02%
Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2016 122.00 -2.13 -1.72%
Feeder Cattle (P) Nov 2016 117.78 -1.80 -1.51%
Feeder Cattle (P) Jan 2017 114.28 -1.27 -1.10%
Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2016 52.38 +0.93 +1.81%
Lean Hogs (P) Dec 2016 44.05 +1.28 +2.99%
Lean Hogs (P) Feb 2017 50.92 +0.82 +1.64%
