Canola futures posted another strong gain on Friday supported by concerns about the amount of crop still unharvested and by rising vegetable oil prices.
November canola closed at $487.50, up $7.40 or 1.54 percent on the day. It was the highest price in three months
November canola rallied $17.70 per tonne or 3.8 percent from the previous Friday’s close.
Central and northern parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan were getting light showers today and another system is expected to bring moisture to central and northern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba on Sunday.
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Some 20 percent of the prairie canola crop is not yet harvested, amounting to millions of tonnes of seed at risk.
The forecast for next week has a lower risk of precipitation but still a lot of cloud with temperature highs in the Saskatoon area of 5-9 C. Nighttime lows are expected to remain above normal, mostly coming in slightly above the freezing mark.
Canola has also been supported by vegetable oil futures.
Palm oil rallied this week on a lower Malaysian currency and from the seasonal trend of lower production as monsoon rains hit Malaysia, the world’s second largest producer disrupting harvest and transportation. Also there are lingering production lags associated with the El Nino earlier this year.
CANOLA DEMAND
Canola crush to Oct. 12 was 172,241 tonnes, down 3.1 percent from the previous week, said the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
Capacity use was 80.6 percent, a bit lower than the average to date of 83.8 percent.
Total crush to date is 1.74 million tonnes, up from 1.54 million last year at the same point.
Weekly exports to Oct 9 were 197,400 tonnes, up from 144,700 tonnes the previous week.
In the first 10 weeks of the crop year, canola exports total 1.45 million, down 21 percent from 1.76 million last year.
WHEAT
Wheat futures saw strong gains this week on a short covering rally prompted by a rash of new international tenders from wheat importers. The funds had a record short position in wheat and so a short covering rally had been a possibility.
The trade believes U.S. wheat prices have fall enough to be competitive internationally.
The global shortage of quality wheat has had the Minneapolis spring wheat contract rallying for a couple of weeks. December Minneapolis is up about 8.6 percent since Sept. 1.
Chicago soft wheat had lagged until the last few days but the late rally pushed it up about 6.5 percent compared to Sept. 1.
On Thursday, December Minneapolis was at a premium to the March contract, but today December slipped back.
SOYBEANS
A delegation of soybean importers from China signed agreements to buy 5.1 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans valued at $2.1 billion at a ceremony in Des Moines, Iowa, on Friday, the U.S. Soybean Export Council said during a Facebook Live presentation.
The USDA expects China to import 86 million tonnes of soybeans in the 2016-17 season, including 30 million tonnes from the United States.
Weekly U.S. soybean export sales topped expectations.
CORN
The rally in wheat helped lift corn futures. Weekly corn exports sales were within trade expectations.
Crude oil fell a little as the U.S. dollar rose against a basket of currencies (but not the loonie). Also the number of rigs drilling in the U.S. has been increasing, raising the potential for more domestic production. Offsetting that was the hope that OPEC will carry through on intentions of limiting its production.
TRADE
The Canada-EU trade agreement has hit a roadblock with a region of Belgium voting against the deal. Although the country’s parliament favours the agreement, it can’t approve it without support from assemblies representing Belgium’s three regions and three language groups.
EU trade ministers meet in Luxembourg on Tuesday to vote on CETA and want unanimous backing for it ahead of a summit of EU leaders in Brussels on Thursday and a visit, if all goes well, by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a week later.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell nine cents to US$50.33 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.94 cents, up from 75.65 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3168.
Comments by Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen that the U.S. economy might still not be strong enough to warrant an interest rate increase, weighed down the stock market late in the day.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 58.72 points, or 0.40 percent, at 14,584.99.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 39.98 points, or 0.22 percent, to 18,138.92, the S&P 500 gained 0.52 points, or 0.02 percent, to 2,133.07 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.83 points, or 0.02 percent, to 5,214.16.
For the week, the TSX composite was down 0.1 percent, the Dow fell 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 fell one percent and the Nasdaq fell 1.5 percent.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 16 487.50s +7.40 +1.54%
Canola Jan 17 495.20s +7.30 +1.50%
Canola Mar 17 498.90s +5.60 +1.14%
Canola May 17 502.50s +5.00 +1.01%
Canola Jul 17 501.40s +3.60 +0.72%
Milling Wheat Dec 16 232.00s -2.00 -0.85%
Milling Wheat Mar 17 238.00s unch unch
Milling Wheat May 17 242.00s unch unch
Durum Wheat Dec 16 294.00s unch unch
Durum Wheat Mar 17 303.00s -1.00 -0.33%
Durum Wheat May 17 308.00s unch unch
Barley Dec 16 132.50s unch unch
Barley Mar 17 134.50s unch unch
Barley May 17 135.50s unch unch
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 16 962-4s +6-2 +0.65%
Soybeans Jan 17 970-2s +5-4 +0.57%
Soybeans Mar 17 976-2s +5-2 +0.54%
Soybeans May 17 983-4s +5-4 +0.56%
Soybeans Jul 17 990-0s +5-6 +0.58%
Soybean Meal Dec 16 300.6s -1.7 -0.56%
Soybean Meal Jan 17 301.9s -1.9 -0.63%
Soybean Meal Mar 17 303.5s -1.9 -0.62%
Soybean Oil Dec 16 34.38s +1.00 +3.00%
Soybean Oil Jan 17 34.66s +1.00 +2.97%
Soybean Oil Mar 17 34.89s +0.98 +2.89%
Corn Dec 16 354-2s +4-6 +1.36%
Corn Mar 17 363-6s +4-2 +1.18%
Corn May 17 370-2s +4-2 +1.16%
Corn Jul 17 376-4s +4-0 +1.07%
Corn Sep 17 383-0s +3-4 +0.92%
Oats Dec 16 198-6s +3-0 +1.53%
Oats Mar 17 199-6s +1-0 +0.50%
Oats May 17 203-0s +1-0 +0.50%
Oats Jul 17 206-2s +1-2 +0.61%
Oats Sep 17 215-2s +1-2 +0.58%
Wheat Dec 16 421-0s +5-0 +1.20%
Wheat Mar 17 439-2s +4-4 +1.04%
Wheat May 17 452-4s +4-0 +0.89%
Wheat Jul 17 463-4s +3-2 +0.71%
Wheat Sep 17 478-0s +3-4 +0.74%
Spring Wheat Dec 16 528-4s -3-4 -0.66%
Spring Wheat Mar 17 532-2s +0-4 +0.09%
Spring Wheat May 17 538-0s +1-4 +0.28%
Spring Wheat Jul 17 545-0s +2-0 +0.37%
Spring Wheat Sep 17 551-6s +1-6 +0.32%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 16 417-6s +3-6 +0.91%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 17 434-6s +3-6 +0.87%
Hard Red Wheat May 17 445-4s +3-6 +0.85%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 17 456-0s +3-4 +0.77%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 17 470-6s +3-6 +0.80%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Oct 16 95.900s +1.450 +1.54%
Live Cattle (P) Dec 16 97.450s +1.275 +1.33%
Live Cattle (P) Feb 17 99.375s +1.425 +1.45%
Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 16 120.375s +0.925 +0.77%
Feeder Cattle (P) Nov 16 115.650s +0.825 +0.72%
Feeder Cattle (P) Jan 17 112.000s +0.450 +0.40%
Lean Hogs (P) Dec 16 42.225s -1.950 -4.41%
Lean Hogs (P) Feb 17 50.275s -0.925 -1.81%
Lean Hogs (P) Apr 17 58.025s -0.350 -0.60%
