Canola rides soybean rally higher

Canola futures rose more than two percent on Thursday, supported by rising soybeans, which were lifted by more rain in the U.S. Midwest.

Corn and soybeans were also supported by ideas that the USDA’s monthly supply and demand report on Friday will trim its forecasts of 2015-16 production and year-end stocks for 2014-15 and 2015-16.

Hot weather in much of the Canadian Prairies with temperatures in the low 30s through to Sunday will highten stress on canola crops.

Thunderstorms forecast for this weekend in Saskatchewan could provide some modest regional relief.

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U.S. soybean futures jumped 2.9 percent on overnight rain that reminded traders of the excessive moisture situation in the eastern Midwest.

CBOT soymeal and soyoil futures also gapped higher, with soymeal touching its highest level in six months.

The benchmark Chicago soyoil futures contract broke through technical resistance at its 100-day moving average. The oil was also supported by a rally in crude oil which stiffened after a several day decline. Crude was also supported by a rebound in China equities and ideas that the Iran nuclear talks might be bogging down. If a deal is reached it would allow Iran to export more oil.

Based on an average of trade forecasts, the U.S. Department or Agriculture on Friday is expected to lower its outlook for soybean production to 3.776 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 44.964 bu per acre on Friday.

Old-crop soy stocks are forecast at 287 million bu, down from the USDA’s previous outlook of 330 million. Analysts expect the USDA to cut its 2015-16 year end forecast to 370 million bu. from 475 million.

Corn futures jumped to the highest levels in nearly seven months, boosted by the rain and expectations for the USDA report Friday.

The average of trade forecasts for US corn production is 13.44 billion bu. with an average yield of 165.4 bu. per acre.

Last month the USDA forecast 13.63 billion bu. at an average yield of 166.8 bu. per acre.

Last year, the crop was 14.216 billion bu. with a yield of 171 bu. per acre.

Wheat closed steady to lower after a choppy session, drawing support from corn, but technical selling and poor export demand for U.S. supplies limited gains, Reuters reported.

Cash basis bids for soft red winter wheat at the U.S. Gulf fell to the lowest levels in two years, pressured by the ongoing harvest, quality concerns and limited export interest.

A tender issued by Egypt this week got lots of offers at prices lower than American wheat.

MGEX spring wheat ended narrowly mixed, with concern about hot and dry weather in Canada’s wheat belt lending support.

The trade estimates U.S. all wheat production at 2.148 billion bu., up from last month’s USDA forecast of 2.121 billion.

Last year’s crop was 2.158 billion.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $1.13 to US$52.78 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US78.56 cents, down from 78.60 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2729.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Jul 2015   540.30   +11.90   +2.25%

Canola Nov 2015   532.10   +11.90   +2.29%

Canola Jan 2016   532.60   +12.40   +2.38%

Canola Mar 2016   530.30   +11.40   +2.20%

Canola May 2016   525.90   +11.00   +2.14%

Milling Wheat Jul 2015   252.00   unch   0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2015   249.00   unch   0.00%

Milling Wheat Dec 2015   249.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2015   298.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2015   298.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2015   303.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Jul 2015   217.40   +5.00   +2.35%

Barley Oct 2015   217.40   +10.00   +4.82%

Barley Dec 2015   219.40   +7.00   +3.30%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2015   1037.75   +31.5   +3.13%

Soybeans Aug 2015   1026.25   +29.5 +2.96%

Soybeans Sep 2015   1017.25   +29.25   +2.96%

Soybeans Nov 2015   1015.75   +27.5   +2.78%

Soybeans Jan 2016   1022   +27.5   +2.77%

Soybeans Mar 2016   1016.5   +25.5   +2.57%

Soybean Meal Jul 2015   364   +13.2   +3.76%

Soybean Meal Aug 2015   355.1   +11.3   +3.29%

Soybean Meal Sep 2015   351   +11.4   +3.36%

Soybean Oil Jul 2015   32.27   +0.67   +2.12%

Soybean Oil Aug 2015   32.37   +0.68   +2.15%

Soybean Oil Sep 2015   32.44   +0.69   +2.17%

Corn Jul 2015   421.25   +5   +1.20%

Corn Sep 2015   428.75   +4.25   +1.00%

Corn Dec 2015   439   +4.75   +1.09%

Corn Mar 2016   449   +5   +1.13%

Corn May 2016   454   +4.75   +1.06%

Oats Jul 2015   245.75   -0.25   -0.10%

Oats Sep 2015   254.5   -0.5   -0.20%

Oats Dec 2015   267.75   +0.75   +0.28%

Oats Mar 2016   279.25   +2   +0.72%

Oats May 2016   282   +1.75   +0.62%

Wheat Jul 2015   572.25   unch   0.00%

Wheat Sep 2015   578   +0.5   +0.09%

Wheat Dec 2015   586   +1.25   +0.21%

Wheat Mar 2016   594   +2.5   +0.42%

Wheat May 2016   597.5   +3   +0.50%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2015   605.75   -2.25   -0.37%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015   619   unch   0.00%

Spring Wheat Dec 2015   632.5   unch   0.00%

Spring Wheat Mar 2016   642.5   unch   0.00%

Spring Wheat May 2016   648.5   +0.25   +0.04%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015   565   -3.25   -0.57%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015   579.25   -3.75   -0.64%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015   599.25   -3.25   -0.54%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016   613.25   -2.5   -0.41%

Hard Red Wheat May 2016   621   -2.25   -0.36%

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