Canola and soybeans closed higher on Wednesday, corn edged lower and Chicago wheat fell 1.8 percent following a U.S. Department of Agriculture supply and demand report.
Minneapolis spring wheat fell 1.45 percent.
Wheat was staggered by the report’s increase in global year end stocks, pegged at 186.68 million tonnes, up from 183.81 million in March.
The main reason was a reduction in China feed wheat consumption.
The report’s take on U.S. year end soybean and corn stocks was bullish for those crops, but the effect on the latter was mitigated by adequate global stocks.
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Canola was up strongly before the USDA report, with momentum sparked Tuesday when the May contract broke through chart resistance and new crop November trading near the psychologically important $500 level.
Strength lagged later in the session, but canola closed the day higher. Speculators added to their long positions.
May closed at $473.10, up $5.10 or 1.09 percent
November late in the session touched $500.70, but closed at $496.80, up $4.50 or 0.91 percent.
Prices in the coming days might be further supported by word from Argentina that close to eight inches of rain in the past few days has hurt at least a million tonnes of soybeans and perhaps as much as three million tonnes, according to a story in Business Recorder.
Soybean harvest had just got fully underway with about 10 percent of the crop combined. The rain is coming as Argentina moves into its autumn when days are shorter and temperatures are cooler, meaning muddy fields and roads take longer to dry.
Turning back to the USDA report, it cut its forecast for the domestic 2013-14 soybean carryout to 135 million bushels, down 10 million from March.
The figure was below an average of trade estimates for 139 million bushels and represented a 10-year low.
The soy stocks figure might have been even smaller, but USDA raised its forecast of U.S. soybean imports to a record high 65 million bushels. Some analysts questioned if U.S. export-oriented ports could actually handle such an amount of imports.
Global soybean year end stocks 2013-14 fell to 69.42 million tonnes from 70.64 million in March.
USDA cut its Brazil soybean crop forecast to 87.5 million tonnes from 88.5 million in March.
USDA pared its 2013-14 domestic corn ending stocks forecast to 1.331 billion bushels, That was less than the average of trade estimates for 1.403 billion.
Offsetting that in traders’ minds was the fairly small cut to global corn stocks, pegged at 158 million tonnes, down about 500,000 tonnes but still higher than the average trade estimate of 157.7 million.
Some analysts also believed that the confirmation of shrinking U.S corn stocks will cause farmers to increase their corn area this spring.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola May 2014 473.10 +5.10 +1.09%
Canola Jul 2014 482.60 +4.70 +0.98%
Canola Nov 2014 496.80 +4.50 +0.91%
Canola Jan 2015 503.60 +4.00 +0.80%
Canola Mar 2015 510.40 +4.00 +0.79%
Milling Wheat May 2014 214.00 -5.00 -2.28%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014 213.00 -4.00 -1.84%
Milling Wheat Oct 2014 216.00 -3.00 -1.37%
Durum Wheat May 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2014 252.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 130.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans May 2014 1495.25 +12.75 +0.86%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1478 +16.5 +1.13%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1394.75 +11.5 +0.83%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1276 +9 +0.71%
Soybeans Nov 2014 1227.5 +10 +0.82%
Soybeans Jan 2015 1232.5 +10 +0.82%
Soybean Meal May 2014 482.1 +4 +0.84%
Soybean Meal Jul 2014 471.6 +3.5 +0.75%
Soybean Meal Aug 2014 440.1 +1.9 +0.43%
Soybean Oil May 2014 42.91 +0.8 +1.90%
Soybean Oil Jul 2014 43.12 +0.8 +1.89%
Soybean Oil Aug 2014 42.91 +0.75 +1.78%
Corn May 2014 502.25 -4.75 -0.94%
Corn Jul 2014 508 -5 -0.97%
Corn Sep 2014 506.75 -5 -0.98%
Corn Dec 2014 505.5 -7.5 -1.46%
Corn Mar 2015 512.75 -7.25 -1.39%
Oats May 2014 424 -11 -2.53%
Oats Jul 2014 366.25 -3.75 -1.01%
Oats Sep 2014 358.25 -1 -0.28%
Oats Dec 2014 347.25 unch 0.00%
Oats Mar 2015 345.5 +1.5 +0.44%
Wheat May 2014 669 -12 -1.76%
Wheat Jul 2014 677.25 -12 -1.74%
Wheat Sep 2014 687 -11.75 -1.68%
Wheat Dec 2014 700.25 -11.75 -1.65%
Wheat Mar 2015 712.75 -11 -1.52%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 2014 712.75 -10.5 -1.45%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 719.5 -8.75 -1.20%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 725.75 -9.5 -1.29%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 738 -8.75 -1.17%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015 746.75 -7.25 -0.96%
Kansas City
KC HRW Wheat May 2014 733.25 -8.25 -1.11%
KC HRW Wheat Jul 2014 740.25 -8.75 -1.17%
KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014 748.75 -7.5 -0.99%
KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014 760 -7.5 -0.98%
KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015 765 -7 -0.91%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $1.04 at $103.60 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 91.72 cents US, up from 91.56 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0903 Cdn.
Stock markets are bouncing back from the recent sell off. Today, minutes from the most recent U.S. Federal Reserve meeting showed that the tapering of stimulus might be a little slower than some expected.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was up 30.47 points, or 0.21 percent, at 14,402.92. It has gained about 5.7 percent this year.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 151.72 points, or 0.93 percent, to 16,407.86.
The S&P 500 gained 16.94 points, or 0.91 percent, to 1,868.9.
The Nasdaq Composite added 62.304 points, or 1.51 percent, to 4,175.29.
