Canola rally stalls, pressured by falling US crop futures, lower crude

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Published: October 20, 2016

Canola closed a little lower Thursday, the first loss since the rally began on Oct. 3, weighed down by falling U.S. crop markets and weaker crude oil values.

In the morning the November contract climbed as high as $508.80 per tonne before reversing and closing at $501.70.

The Saskatchewan crop report said there was almost no progress in the past week but the forecast is moving toward drier weather and warmer temperatures although showers are still possible.

CLICK HERE TO WATCH THIS WEEK’S CROP MARKET UPDATE

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U.S. crop futures were down as the American buck rose against a basket of currencies. It gained strength from comments from the European Central Bank president about leaving the door open to more monetary stimulus.

Such stimulus would weigh down on the euro even as expectations rise that the U.S. Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in December.

Hedge pressure at the American harvest progresses also weighed on U.S. crop futures.

Limiting the losses were weekly U.S. crop export sale numbers that came in stronger than expected.

Crude oil fell on profit taking and the stronger U.S. dollar after jumping higher on Wednesday on tighter than expected weekly U.S. oil stocks.

Stock markets were lower on disappointing results from telecom Verizon.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.17 to US$50.43 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.77 cents, down from 76.30 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3198.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 16   501.70s   -2.70   -0.54%

Canola Jan 17   505.40s   -6.00   -1.17%

Canola Mar 17   509.00s   -6.50   -1.26%

Canola May 17   510.20s   -6.70   -1.30%

Canola Jul 17   507.80s   -6.40   -1.24%

 

Milling Wheat Dec 16   236.00s   +1.00   +0.43%

Milling Wheat Mar 17   241.00s   unch   unch

Milling Wheat May 17   245.00s   unch   unch

 

Durum Wheat Dec 16   304.00s   +3.00   +1.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 17   311.00s   +3.00   +0.97%

Durum Wheat May 17   315.00s   +3.00   +0.96%

 

Barley Dec 16   132.50s   unch   unch

Barley Mar 17   134.50s   unch   unch

Barley May 17   135.50s   unch   unch

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 16   975-4s   -6-0   -0.61%

Soybeans Jan 17   984-6s   -5-6   -0.58%

Soybeans Mar 17   991-0s   -5-6   -0.58%

Soybeans May 17   997-6s   -5-6   -0.57%

Soybeans Jul 17   1003-4s   -5-6   -0.57%

 

Soybean Meal Dec 16   304.6s   -1.8   -0.59%

Soybean Meal Jan 17   306.1s   -1.7   -0.55%

Soybean Meal Mar 17   307.5s   -1.7   -0.55%

 

Soybean Oil Dec 16   35.05s   -0.35   -0.99%

Soybean Oil Jan 17   35.32s   -0.35   -0.98%

Soybean Oil Mar 17   35.53s   -0.36   -1.00%

 

Corn Dec 16   351-0s   -6-4   -1.82%

Corn Mar 17   360-6s   -6-4   -1.77%

Corn May 17   367-4s   -6-4   -1.74%

Corn Jul 17   373-6s   -6-2   -1.64%

Corn Sep 17   380-2s   -6-0   -1.55%

 

Oats Dec 16   210-4s   +1-4   +0.72%

Oats Mar 17   206-2s   -0-2   -0.12%

Oats May 17   206-2s   -0-2   -0.12%

Oats Jul 17   208-2s   -0-2   -0.12%

Oats Sep 17   217-2s   -0-2   -0.11%

 

Wheat Dec 16   417-0s   -3-2   -0.77%

Wheat Mar 17   437-4s   -3-2   -0.74%

Wheat May 17   452-6s   -2-4   -0.55%

Wheat Jul 17   465-0s   -2-0   -0.43%

Wheat Sep 17   479-4s   -1-4   -0.31%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 16   531-2s   +0-4   +0.09%

Spring Wheat Mar 17   534-6s   +0-6   +0.14%

Spring Wheat May 17   540-4s   +0-6   +0.14%

Spring Wheat Jul 17   546-6s   unch   unch

Spring Wheat Sep 17   553-2s   -1-0   -0.18%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 16   423-0s   -2-2   -0.53%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 17   440-4s   -2-0   -0.45%

Hard Red Wheat May 17   452-0s   -2-0   -0.44%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 17   462-6s   -2-0   -0.43%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 17   476-6s   -2-2   -0.47%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Oct 16   99.025s   +3.000   +3.12%

Live Cattle (P) Dec 16   100.125s   +3.000   +3.09%

Live Cattle (P) Feb 17   101.250s   +2.800   +2.84%

 

Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 16   121.750s   +2.725   +2.29%

Feeder Cattle (P) Nov 16   118.850s   +4.025   +3.51%

Feeder Cattle (P) Jan 17   114.250s   +3.400   +3.07%

 

Lean Hogs (P) Dec 16   41.100s   -0.075   -0.18%

Lean Hogs (P) Feb 17   48.025s   -0.125   -0.26%

Lean Hogs (P) Apr 17   56.025s   -0.175   -0.31%

 

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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