If you only looked at old crop months, Monday seemed like an up day on North American crop futures markets.
But new crop months showed none of the excitement, and some traders wrote off the big gains in some old crop months as nothing more than thin-volume silliness.
“We have some of the usual sideshows going on, which are just some of the expiring old crop contracts,” said Ken Ball of P.I. Financial.
“They’re not the real markets any more.”
November Winnipeg canola futures fell 50 cents per tonne, while the soon to expire May contract rose $10.80 with good volume but very low open interest remaining.
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July canola rose $2.70 per tonne.
“There are lots of erratic things going on,” said Ball, noting the May canola situation.
“Somebody’s just running amok in there. There’s obviously no fundamental rationale there.”
With little open interest in May canola, big moves by anyone can make prices swing violently.
Paris canola futures also rose on old crop contracts and fell on new crop.
May Chicago soybeans rose 10 cents per bushel, while November fell less than a penny.
Oats joined the old crop-new crop spread party, with May rising 20 cents per bushel and December rising less than a penny.
Minneapolis spring wheat futures rose two to four cents in the May through December contracts, Chicago wheat was almost unchanged, but Kansas City wheat ranged from a rise of 7.5 cents per bushel for May to a four cents increase in the December contract.
Wheat experienced the most newsy North American weather events over the weekend, with a wet, tornado-spewing system drenching certain areas of the southern plains and Midwest, but it had little impact on prices.
The Wheat Quality Council begins its annual assessment of the hard red winter wheat zone Tuesday, something that will be keenly watched by the market, which has many questions about the state of the crop after a hard winter of cold temperatures and dryness.
Overall, crop markets in North America are worrying about another late spring, but that concern is muted somewhat by the knowledge that a later spring one year ago produced massive yields for many farmers.
“Any rain now is a factor,” said Ball.
The rise in old crop futures pushed many prices to five-month highs, creating an impression of bullishness, but with that not spreading into new crop prices, there was more amusement than excitement about the rises.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola May 2014 482.50 +10.80 +2.29%
Canola Jul 2014 477.00 +2.70 +0.57%
Canola Nov 2014 484.70 -0.50 -0.10%
Canola Jan 2015 490.80 -0.90 -0.18%
Canola Mar 2015 496.20 -1.70 -0.34%
Milling Wheat May 2014 227.00 +2.00 +0.89%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014 226.00 +2.00 +0.89%
Milling Wheat Oct 2014 228.00 +2.00 +0.88%
Durum Wheat May 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2014 247.00 -5.00 -1.98%
Barley May 2014 139.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2014 140.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2014 140.50 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans May 2014 1508.25 +10.25 +0.68%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1500 +5.75 +0.38%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1426.5 -1.75 -0.12%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1301.25 -0.75 -0.06%
Soybeans Nov 2014 1239.25 -0.5 -0.04%
Soybeans Jan 2015 1244.5 -0.5 -0.04%
Soybean Meal May 2014 496.9 +6.3 +1.28%
Soybean Meal Jul 2014 484.8 +3.4 +0.71%
Soybean Meal Aug 2014 455.8 +1.7 +0.37%
Soybean Oil May 2014 42.62 -0.3 -0.70%
Soybean Oil Jul 2014 42.83 -0.32 -0.74%
Soybean Oil Aug 2014 42.7 -0.3 -0.70%
Corn May 2014 507.75 +0.75 +0.15%
Corn Jul 2014 513.75 +1 +0.20%
Corn Sep 2014 510 +0.75 +0.15%
Corn Dec 2014 507 +0.75 +0.15%
Corn Mar 2015 515 +0.75 +0.15%
Oats May 2014 422.5 +20 +4.97%
Oats Jul 2014 362.5 +4.5 +1.26%
Oats Sep 2014 353 +3.25 +0.93%
Oats Dec 2014 339.25 +0.75 +0.22%
Oats Mar 2015 338.25 +2 +0.59%
Wheat May 2014 700.25 unch 0.00%
Wheat Jul 2014 708.5 +0.25 +0.04%
Wheat Sep 2014 716.75 +0.25 +0.03%
Wheat Dec 2014 730.25 -0.25 -0.03%
Wheat Mar 2015 742.25 -0.5 -0.07%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 2014 750.25 +2.75 +0.37%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 753.5 +4 +0.53%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 760 +4.25 +0.56%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 770.25 +3.75 +0.49%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015 777.25 +3.75 +0.48%
Kansas City
KC HRW Wheat May 2014 783.25 +7.5 +0.97%
KC HRW Wheat Jul 2014 786.5 +7 +0.90%
KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014 791.5 +6 +0.76%
KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014 799.75 +4 +0.50%
KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015 801.75 +3.5 +0.44%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 24 cents at $100.84 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 90.64 cents US, up from 90.56 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1033 Cdn.
