Canola prices reaching dangerous territory

By 
Reading Time: 3 minutes

Published: May 6, 2013

It was a crappy day in the crop futures markets Monday, and canola didn’t escape the red ink.

Canola has been staying slightly above critical support levels in both old crop and new crop, and on Monday those support levels were close to being tested.

Some trader’s see $600 per tonne July canola and $530 November canola to be important psychological support levels, which, if breached, could see prices drop substantially further.

“I find that disconcerting,” said Errol Anderson of ProMarket Communications on November canola breaking through $540 per tonne recently.

Read Also

Mature standing canola is ready for harvest in west-central Manitoba in late September. PHOTO: ALEXIS STOCKFORD

China buys first Australian canola cargo since 2020, traders say

A Chinese state-run trading firm has booked a cargo of about 50,000 metric tons of new-crop Australian canola, two traders told Reuters, just days after Beijing imposed temporary levies on top supplier Canada.

“I thought that $540 would hold for a bit. If $530 doesn’t hold, we’re going down to $520.”

The hammering down of wheat and corn followed the arrival of good weather in U.S. growing areas, alleviating fears that the 2013 crop would experience a lot of trouble going in after recent cold and wet conditions.

Days of good planting weather let the market relax and risk began to evaporate, with U.S. hard red winter wheat losing about 21 cents per bushel Monday, losses greater than for either soft red winter or for hard red spring.

Soybeans were only down about half as much as corn in terms of value, a product of the greater anxiety about corn stocks reacting more when fear is alleviated.

Good weather also blessed the Canadian Prairies, allowing fields to warm and farmers in the warmest, driest parts to begin seeding.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2013 629.40 -1.00 -0.16%

Canola Jul 2013 598.80 -2.60 -0.43%

Canola Nov 2013 537.00 -4.30 -0.79%

Canola Jan 2014 538.40 -4.30 -0.79%

Canola Mar 2014 534.70 -4.30 -0.80%

Milling Wheat May 2013 292.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2013 301.90 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2013 301.90 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2013 294.90 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2013 243.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2013 244.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans May 2013 1444.5 -10.5 -0.72%

Soybeans Jul 2013 1369.25 -18 -1.30%

Soybeans Aug 2013 1317 -18.25 -1.37%

Soybeans Sep 2013 1249.75 -16 -1.26%

Soybeans Nov 2013 1207.25 -14 -1.15%

Soybeans Jan 2014 1214.75 -14 -1.14%

Soybean Meal May 2013 413.1 -4.7 -1.12%

Soybean Meal Jul 2013 401.2 -5.3 -1.30%

Soybean Meal Aug 2013 381.4 -5.8 -1.50%

Soybean Oil May 2013 48.69 -0.47 -0.96%

Soybean Oil Jul 2013 48.76 -0.51 -1.04%

Soybean Oil Aug 2013 48.54 -0.47 -0.96%

Corn May 2013 678.75 -20.75 -2.97%

Corn Jul 2013 636.5 -24.75 -3.74%

Corn Sep 2013 559.75 -19.5 -3.37%

Corn Dec 2013 538.25 -15.25 -2.76%

Corn Mar 2014 548.75 -14.75 -2.62%

Oats May 2013 412.5 -9 -2.14%

Oats Jul 2013 379 -9 -2.32%

Oats Sep 2013 366.25 -4.75 -1.28%

Oats Dec 2013 360 -4 -1.10%

Oats Mar 2014 361.75 -6 -1.63%

Wheat May 2013 693 -18.25 -2.57%

Wheat Jul 2013 702.75 -18.25 -2.53%

Wheat Sep 2013 712.5 -18 -2.46%

Wheat Dec 2013 728.75 -16.5 -2.21%

Wheat Mar 2014 743 -15.5 -2.04%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2013 851 -7.5 -0.87%

Spring Wheat Jul 2013 805.75 -13.25 -1.62%

Spring Wheat Sep 2013 804 -15.25 -1.86%

Spring Wheat Dec 2013 811.25 -17.25 -2.08%

Spring Wheat Mar 2014 822 -18.25 -2.17%

Kansas City

KCBT Red Wheat May 2013 768.75 -21.25 -2.69%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2013 756.75 -21.25 -2.73%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 767.5 -21.25 -2.69%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 785 -20.75 -2.58%

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 797.25 -20.75 -2.54%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 55 cents at $96.16 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 99.26 cents US, up from 99.22 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0075 Cdn.

About the author

Ed White

Ed White

explore

Stories from our other publications